New York, May 13, 2026, 04:08 EDT
- Nvidia heads into Wednesday with shares hovering close to their all-time high, finishing Tuesday at $220.78, up 0.61%. The stock even hit $223.75 during the session. This, despite the Nasdaq easing off amid fresh inflation concerns and jitters over the Iran conflict.
- Politics just collided with the bottom line: Jensen Huang showed up alongside President Donald Trump during the China visit, and suddenly there’s talk that H200 AI-chip sales—frozen for Chinese buyers—might be back on the table.
- Bulls are eyeing another earnings beat next week. Bears, though, point to a stock that’s gotten pricey and faces headwinds—rising rates, export policy risks, plus stiffer competition from AMD, Broadcom, and Alphabet’s custom chips.
Nvidia heads into Wednesday’s U.S. session with investors zeroed in on a single issue: will China actually deliver fresh revenue, or is this just more fuel for a stock that’s already hovering close to record highs?
Nvidia wrapped up Tuesday at $220.78, setting a new record close across multiple market-data sources after touching $223.75 intraday. That jump stands out. Since ending May 5 at $196.50, the stock has surged about 12% over just five sessions—a swift climb for a company with a market cap north of $5 trillion.
The timing is key. Nvidia’s earnings hit in a week, but before that, traders will get some clarity on China policy. According to Reuters, Huang joined Trump’s Beijing trip as part of a push from U.S. companies to ease business restrictions. Nvidia, for its part, is still trying to get approval to sell the H200 AI chips in China.
That’s the crux: policy moves steer the price. If China reopens its doors, Nvidia’s not just looking at a bump in sales. The bigger kicker? Easing investor anxiety that U.S. export controls are boxing Nvidia in as Chinese clients turn local. Beijing, on the other hand, is pushing for smoother access to high-end semiconductors and chip tools. “Keeping the status quo,” says Liu Qian, who leads Wusawa Advisory in Beijing, “would already count as good news.” Reuters
Wall Street chipped in. Susquehanna’s Christopher Rolland bumped his Nvidia price target up to $275 from $250, and Citi’s Atif Malik stuck with a $300 goal. Analysts in that same round also boosted outlooks on AI names like AMD and Broadcom. The shift wasn’t just about Nvidia—this was broader. The AI-infrastructure play is holding investor interest, though money’s flowing more selectively down the supply chain.
The Q4 setup here leaves little room for interpretation. Nvidia reported a 73% jump in fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue to $68.1 billion. Data-center sales did even better, climbing 75% to hit $62.3 billion. Looking ahead, management is calling for Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $78.0 billion, give or take 2%. Importantly, that forecast excludes any data-center compute revenue from China. That’s why even the slightest signal of traction in China can jolt the stock.
On the last update, Huang didn’t waver. He described enterprise demand for AI agents as “skyrocketing,” with customers scrambling to secure AI compute. The message landed: demand keeps outpacing supply, and Nvidia still controls the key piece of the stack. Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 earnings call is on May 20 at 2 p.m. PT; CFO remarks will come out just ahead of the webcast. NVIDIA Newsroom
Bulls point to Nvidia’s position as the go-to supplier for critical AI infrastructure. Analysts are watching for upside from Blackwell demand, GB300 servers rolling out, and Rubin on the horizon—none of that factors in China yet. Sure, Broadcom’s custom silicon and AMD pushing hard on GPUs are in play, but Nvidia’s grip on high-end training and inference pricing hasn’t slipped. (Inference here is running AI models after training.)
The bear argument isn’t really questioning Nvidia’s quality as a company. It’s about what the price already reflects. Shares hovering near their all-time high leave little cushion for anything short of outstanding results. Then there’s Alphabet, whose booming cloud business and custom AI silicon highlight how top customers are hunting for other options. Alphabet now stands out, serving up major AI services and taking on Nvidia directly with its own custom chips—gear that’s already powering clients like Anthropic.
Rising rates are piling on. With U.S. inflation running hotter and turmoil from the Iran-war energy shock, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts keeps shrinking—bad news for high-multiple growth stocks, since higher discount rates eat into the value of their projected profits. Over on Polymarket, traders assign a 68% probability there won’t be any Fed cuts in 2026, and see a 27% chance of a hike before this year is out. Kalshi data flagged by Walter Bloomberg pins the odds of a hike ahead of July 2027 at 53%.
Macro headwinds weighed on most stocks, but Nvidia’s upward move still stood out. On Tuesday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the session in the red as inflation and concerns over Iran drove investors to pull back—Nvidia, though, bucked the trend. “U.S. inflation had ‘watered down hopes’ for Fed cuts,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. Yet investors are buying Nvidia, betting that its own catalysts outweigh the current anxiety over rates. Reuters
So the real hurdle for the stock isn’t only the May 20 earnings report. Management needs to hold gross margins in the mid-70s, show that Blackwell demand continues to outstrip supply, and lay out a believable strategy for China that doesn’t hinge on a single diplomatic visit. A record close might attract fresh buyers—though it also sets tougher expectations.
