NEW YORK, June 5, 2026, 16:02 (EDT)
Oil dropped Friday, with Brent crude settling at $93.09 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate ending at $90.54. Traders bet the U.S.-Iran conflict probably wouldn’t escalate further. Brent gave up 2.04% and WTI slid 2.69%, according to Reuters.
Oil is still under $100 despite bottlenecks at the Strait of Hormuz, so the market is turning to stockpiles, cargo detours and bets on a possible deal. Brent crude traded at $97.44 as of 9 a.m. Eastern, according to Fortune’s morning tracker. That’s down 51 cents from Thursday but about $32 above levels this time last year.
Cushion is wearing down. Global oil stocks are tight, raising warnings from analysts and industry execs that a second price shock could follow if the disruption drags into the busy summer fuel season. Neil Chapman, senior VP at Exxon Mobil, referred to it as “unheard of inventory levels,” while Mehmet Beceren with Rosenberg Research said when the buffers thin, “prices have to do more of the adjustment work.” Reuters
Oil is not pricing in more escalation, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, after Friday’s selloff. Brent and WTI were still on track to snap a three-week losing streak. Crude had rallied earlier on Middle East fighting and less shipping through a key waterway that handles around 20% of global oil.
Ceasefire talks left a muddled picture. Petroleum Development Oman said Mina al Fahal port was still running after an explosion was reported near the mooring berths. Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem came out against a U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire deal. Iran wants any agreement with Washington to depend on a Lebanon ceasefire, Reuters said.
Technical traders kept an eye on the pullback, trying to gauge if it might go further. LiteFinance’s Elliott Wave analysis said WTI “remains likely to decline” and pointed to $95.15 as the estimated pivot point, which traders use to spot momentum changes. Elsewhere, a Moomoo/Futunn market update called $86 the key support level for oil, with support as the place where buyers could step in. LiteFinance Futunn News
Brent futures keep trading below what the official numbers suggest. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had called for Middle East troubles to spark big inventory draws and keep Brent near $106 a barrel for May and June, but Friday’s close missed that mark. Earlier, the World Bank baseline had Brent at $86 for 2026, but that view counted on the worst of the supply shock ending this month and shipping slowly returning to normal by late 2026.
OPEC kept its outlook for yearly oil-demand growth at 1.2 million barrels per day, despite ongoing conflict and Hormuz limits. Iranian oil exports dropped to a six-year low, mostly from a U.S. naval blockade. Soft Chinese demand has also pressured prices for these barrels.
IMF said Thursday the macro risk picture has turned real, with oil about 3% over what was in its April baseline growth view. But even with that, reserves were still dropping. “The price path would depend on the duration of the war and how fast Hormuz reopens,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told reporters. Fitch has cut its global growth forecast for 2026 and now puts Brent at $87 a barrel, the Wall Street Journal reported. Reuters The Wall Street Journal
Oil fell across benchmarks. WTI, Brent and Murban crude each dropped Friday, according to OilPrice.com, which showed the selling wasn’t just in U.S. futures. Murban is a Middle East crude important to Asian buyers.
But the case for a move down relies on diplomacy. If peace talks stall or inventories keep dropping into late June, prices may not fall. Chapman said dated Brent, which prices over 60% of the world’s crude trade, could spike to $150-$160 a barrel if stocks drop more. The World Bank is calling for Brent to average $95-$115 this year if fighting spreads or if regional flows remain shut.
Traders are still hoping for a good headline even without a clear solution. Joseph Tanious at Northern Trust Asset Management called Hormuz a “persistent geopolitical chokepoint.” That’s where some in the market still see vulnerabilities. Reuters
