Oil Price Forecast December 2025: Can Brent Crude Hold the Line Above $60 as a 2026 Glut Looms?

Oil prices are limping into the final weeks of 2025 with Brent crude hovering just above $60 a barrel and traders fixated on one word: oversupply. As of Friday, December 12, Brent settled at about $61.12 per barrel and WTI at $57.44, both benchmarks down more than 4% for the week and sitting near their lowest levels in several years. ^[1]

At the same time, big agencies and Wall Street banks are rolling out fresh forecasts that increasingly point to sub‑$60 oil in 2026, even as OPEC insists the market will be roughly balanced next year. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest December 2025 data, forecasts and analysis to sketch out a near‑term oil price forecast for December 2025, and what it might mean for 2026.

Where oil prices stand in mid‑December 2025

Spot prices:
- Brent crude closed around $61.12 per barrel on December 12. ^[3]
- WTI settled near $57.44 per barrel the same day. ^[4]
Year‑to‑date performance:
Brent has fallen roughly 18% in 2025 so far, while WTI is down close to 20%, as the market has steadily priced out the war‑driven risk premium of the early 2020s and refocused on swelling supply. ^[5]
Price levels vs recent history:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that North Sea Dated crude (a physical benchmark related to Brent) averaged about $63.63 per barrel in November, its fifth monthly decline in a row and the longest losing streak in over a decade — effectively putting prices near four‑year lows. ^[6]

In short, December 2025 oil prices are weak, but not collapsing: Brent is holding around the low $60s, yet sentiment is sharply bearish because of what’s happening in supply, demand and inventories.

Why the market has turned bearish going into December

1. A supply surge colliding with only modest demand growth

The IEA’s December 2025 Oil Market Report paints a clear picture:

Global oil demand is expected to rise by about 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 860,000 bpd in 2026. ^[7]
But global oil supply is set to grow much faster – roughly 3 million bpd in 2025 and another 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven heavily by non‑OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Brazil and Guyana. ^[8]

That imbalance is now showing up in stockpiles:

Observed global oil inventories hit around 8.03 billion barrels in October, the highest in four years, with stock builds averaging 1.2 million bpd in the first ten months of 2025. ^[9]
The IEA estimates the implied surplus at nearly 3.7 million bpd on average from Q4 2025 through 2026 – an unusually large overhang for this stage of the cycle. ^[10]

That’s why recent IEA forecasts of a glut have become one of the main downward forces on prices this month.

2. “Oil on water” and the emerging “super glut” narrative

A big part of the story is where the barrels are sitting. The IEA highlights a surge in oil on water — crude in transit or temporarily floating — as sanctioned barrels struggle to find buyers and long‑haul shipments from the Americas to Asia jump. ^[11]

Private‑sector and media analysis has picked this up and sharpened it:

A widely discussed Financial Times piece cites Trafigura’s chief economist warning of a coming “super glut” in 2026 as new supply projects ramp up while demand growth softens. He points to new output from Brazil and Guyana, cooling Chinese demand (partly due to EV adoption), and resilient U.S. supply. ^[12]
A detailed WRAL/FinancialContent analysis similarly describes a “super glut” in crude, with non‑OPEC+ supply from the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana consistently outpacing demand, while EV adoption and industrial slowdowns cap consumption. ^[13]

Taken together, the narrative going into December is clear: there is simply too much oil around, and it’s increasingly visible in both inventories and shipping data.

3. Agencies now see lower average prices ahead

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short‑Term Energy Outlook, released on December 9, 2025, explicitly bakes falling prices into its forecast: ^[14]

The EIA expects global oil inventories to keep rising through 2026, putting continuing downward pressure on prices.
It projects Brent crude averaging about $69 per barrel in 2025, then dropping steeply to around $55 per barrel in 2026, staying near that level all year.
In a related “Today in Energy” note, the EIA forecasts WTI crude at an average of $65 in 2025 and $51 in 2026. ^[15]

Those numbers don’t give a precise December 2025 point forecast, but they send a strong signal: in the EIA’s baseline, the path of least resistance for prices is lower from here, not higher.

4. Demand is not collapsing – but it isn’t strong enough

It’s important to note that demand itself is not in freefall. The IEA has actually revised its 2025 and 2026 demand growth estimates up slightly, helped by a brighter macro outlook and a weaker U.S. dollar. It now expects:

Demand growth of 830,000 bpd in 2025 and 860,000 bpd in 2026, higher than its November outlook. ^[16]

Cheaper crude and a softer dollar typically support consumption, especially in emerging markets. But when supply growth is running more than double demand growth, as 2025’s numbers suggest, the demand side simply can’t absorb all the new barrels.

IEA vs OPEC vs Wall Street: diverging 2026 oil price outlooks

Even as the market leans bearish, there is no unified view on just how oversupplied 2026 will be — and that’s crucial context for any December 2025 oil price forecast.

IEA: glut of nearly 4% of global demand

The IEA’s December update trimmed its 2026 surplus estimate for the first time since May, but it still expects global supply to exceed demand by about 3.84 million bpd in 2026, close to 4% of world consumption. ^[17]

This forecast, heavily publicised in recent days, has weighed on prices throughout December by reinforcing expectations of:

Rising inventories well into 2026
A structural shift toward lower average prices unless supply is cut

OPEC: no glut, just balance

OPEC strongly disputes the idea of a huge oversupply:

In its latest monthly report, the group says OPEC+ produced 43.06 million bpd in November.
It forecasts demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43.0 million bpd in 2026, almost exactly matching current production. ^[18]
If the group kept output at November levels, OPEC data imply a surplus of just 60,000 bpd — essentially balanced, and nowhere near the IEA’s multi‑million‑barrel excess. ^[19]

OPEC+ has also said it will pause further production increases in the first quarter of 2026, citing widespread predictions of oversupply and signalling that it is prepared to defend prices if needed. ^[20]

Wall Street and investment banks: low 60s — or even lower

Banks and market surveys sit somewhere between these two poles – but skewing bearish:

A Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts, published November 28, projects Brent averaging about $62.23/bbl in 2026 and WTI around $59/bbl, with “swelling supplies” expected to keep prices under pressure. ^[21]
Goldman Sachs recently forecast Brent at $56 and WTI at $52 in 2026, warning of a roughly 2 million bpd surplus and even flagging the risk of a temporary dip into the $40s if non‑OPEC supply proves particularly resilient or the global economy slows sharply. ^[22]
Morgan Stanley, by contrast, nudged its view slightly higher, lifting its H1 2026 Brent forecast from $57.50 to $60 on the back of OPEC+ pausing quota hikes and tighter sanctions on Russian exports. ^[23]
A recent OilPrice.com roundup notes that “most investment banks and the EIA” now expect average oil prices below $60 in 2026, reflecting the broad consensus around persistent oversupply. ^[24]

In other words, the centre of gravity for 2026 forecasts has shifted into the high‑50s to low‑60s range for Brent, with significant disagreement about how quickly, and from what level, prices will get there.

Oil price forecast for December 2025: what happens next?

Major agencies don’t typically publish a day‑by‑day December 2025 oil price forecast, but combining their latest projections with current market behaviour allows us to sketch plausible trading ranges and scenarios for the remainder of the month.

What the market is currently signalling

Recent weekly coverage shows a market that reacts more to glut headlines than to geopolitical risk:

On December 12, Brent and WTI both ended the week down more than 4% despite a U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan crude tanker and ongoing Ukraine‑related disruptions — a clear sign that traders view oversupply and potential Russia‑Ukraine peace talks as more important than isolated supply shocks right now. ^[25]
A December 13 week‑ahead outlook notes that rallies triggered by tanker seizures or refinery strikes faded quickly as investors refocused on abundant supply, rising product inventories and a looming 2026 surplus. TechStock²

Against that backdrop, here’s a scenario‑based December 2025 oil price outlook centred on Brent, with WTI typically trading a few dollars lower.

Important note: The ranges below are analytical scenarios, not guarantees, and are based on current information as of mid‑December 2025. They are not investment advice.

Base case: “slow grind lower”

Probability: High | Indicative range (rest of December): Brent ~$60–65, WTI ~$56–61

In this scenario, the narrative that has dominated early December continues:

Weekly data show modest crude draws but big builds in gasoline and diesel, reinforcing the idea that refiners are well‑supplied and end‑user demand is patchy. TechStock²
No major new OPEC+ cuts are announced before year‑end, and the group sticks to its plan to pause further hikes from Q1 2026 rather than actively tightening now. ^[26]
Markets keep trading the “2026 glut” story anchored in the IEA’s roughly 3.8–3.9 million bpd surplus forecast, only mildly offset by OPEC’s more balanced view. ^[27]

In this base case, December 2025 looks like a transition month:

Brent likely oscillates around the low $60s, with frequent tests of $60 and occasional bounces toward the mid‑$60s when geopolitics flare up.
WTI tends to track a few dollars below, consistent with EIA’s longer‑term expectation of a discount to Brent and a 2026 average near $51. ^[28]

Bearish case: “early taste of sub‑$60 Brent”

Probability: Moderate | Indicative range: Brent ~$55–60, WTI ~$51–57

Here, the glut narrative intensifies just as liquidity thins into year‑end:

Weekly EIA data show continued builds in product inventories and perhaps a renewed build in crude stocks, sending a signal that demand is not keeping up with supply even at current prices. TechStock²+1
Macro data out of China or Europe disappoint, reviving concerns about trade and manufacturing and dampening expectations for fuel demand heading into 2026. ^[29]
Traders increasingly position for the kind of “super glut” flagged by Trafigura and others, with some analysts explicitly calling for Brent to drop below $60 by the turn of the year and into the mid‑$50s in early 2026. ^[30]

Under these conditions, it would not be surprising to see:

Short‑lived breaks below $60 for Brent in late December
WTI probing into the low‑to‑mid $50s, closer to where EIA and some banks see its 2026 average

The main factor that could limit the downside in this scenario is the growing concern that WTI in the $50–60 range is at or below breakeven for many new U.S. shale wells, which could eventually choke off supply growth. ^[31]

Bullish (but unlikely) case: “geopolitics and demand surprise the market”

Probability: Lower | Indicative range: Brent ~$65–72, WTI ~$61–68

For a meaningful rally this month, several things would probably have to line up at once:

Geopolitical risk finally translates into sustained supply losses – for example, a broader disruption to Venezuelan exports after the recent tanker seizure, or a more serious hit to Russian export infrastructure. ^[32]
Russian and Venezuelan exports fall more sharply than currently priced in, rather than just being rerouted or delayed. ^[33]
Short‑term demand indicators, especially from Asia, surprise on the upside, and U.S. economic data remain resilient enough to calm fears of a 2026 slowdown. ^[34]

Even then, the substantial 2026 surplus projected by the IEA and the sub‑$60 averages envisioned by many banks suggest that any December rally would likely face heavy selling into the high $60s–low $70s, as traders view it as an opportunity to re‑establish shorts or hedge. ^[35]

What lower December prices mean for consumers and producers

Consumers: cheaper fuel now, more relief next year

Lower crude prices are already filtering through to refined products:

The EIA projects U.S. gasoline prices averaging about $3.11 per gallon in 2025 and $3.00 in 2026, with declining crude costs the main driver. ^[36]
WRAL/FinancialContent analysis goes further, suggesting U.S. retail gasoline could drop toward $2.90 per gallon in 2026, a post‑pandemic low, if Brent settles in the mid‑$50s. ^[37]

For households and fuel‑intensive businesses, a December spent in the low‑$60s for Brent solidifies expectations of relief at the pump in 2026.

Producers: margins squeezed, strategy under pressure

For producers, the December trend is far more uncomfortable:

Lower crude prices directly compress upstream margins, especially for high‑cost projects and for shale producers reliant on rapid reinvestment.
Analysis based on Reuters and OilPrice.com suggests that WTI in the $50–60 band is already close to or below the breakeven for many new Permian wells, raising the risk that capital spending and supply growth slow if prices stay there. ^[38]
Integrated majors with large refining and petrochemical operations can partially offset weaker upstream earnings with better downstream margins, thanks to cheaper feedstock. ^[39]

If December closes near current levels, it will reinforce the idea that 2024–2025’s high‑price era is over, and that oil companies must compete in a lower‑price, transition‑driven environment.

Key data and events to watch for the rest of December 2025

Several near‑term catalysts could still sway oil prices before year‑end:

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report – December 17
- A sharper‑than‑expected crude and product draw could spark a short‑covering rally from the low $60s for Brent.
- Another week of large gasoline/diesel builds would reinforce the oversupply narrative and increase the odds of a sub‑$60 test. TechStock²+1
Russia‑Ukraine diplomacy and sanctions headlines
- Markets have recently reacted more strongly to peace‑deal rumours (bearish for prices) than to reports of strikes on energy infrastructure (bullish but short‑lived), a pattern that could continue into late December. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
Venezuela export and tanker developments
- The U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan crude tanker and talk of broader enforcement have raised the risk of localized heavy‑crude tightness, but the market has largely shrugged it off so far. That could change if more ships are intercepted or exports fall more sharply than expected. ^[40]
China and global macro data
- Industrial production, retail sales and trade numbers from China, along with delayed U.S. economic data, will shape expectations for early‑2026 oil demand — and thus for how aggressively traders price in the IEA’s glut. ^[41]

Bottom line: December 2025 is the “bridge month” into a cheaper‑oil era

Pulling all of this together, the most reasonable oil price forecast for December 2025 is:

Brent crude likely spending most of the month in a $60–65 per barrel band, with elevated risk of a temporary dip below $60 if inventory data and macro news lean bearish.
WTI likely trading a few dollars below Brent in a $56–61 per barrel range, with a similar downside risk toward the low‑to‑mid $50s.

The balance of evidence from the IEA, EIA, OPEC, Wall Street banks and independent analysts points toward lower average prices in 2026, with many forecasts clustering around mid‑$50s to low‑$60s for Brent and a somewhat cheaper WTI benchmark. ^[42]

That makes December 2025 less about spectacular price moves and more about setting the baseline for a new phase in the oil market — one defined less by scarcity and more by abundance, rising inventories and the growing weight of the energy transition.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice. Oil markets are volatile, and prices can move sharply on new information.