London, February 16, 2026, 17:48 GMT — Regular session
Oil ticked up on Monday, recovering a bit after last week’s declines, as traders looked ahead to Tuesday’s second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and kept an eye on supply signals from OPEC+. Brent crude rose 41 cents, or 0.6%, reaching $68.16 a barrel by 1508 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude moved up 43 cents to $63.32, though there was no settlement because of the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday, and activity was muted with parts of Asia closed for Lunar New Year. SEB analysts noted, “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel.” (Reuters)
Crude’s been holding firm, caught between a geopolitical risk premium on one side and the likelihood of extra barrels coming this spring on the other. Even as headlines get noisy, prices have barely budged.
If relations warm, eventually more Iranian oil might hit the market, easing some of the pressure on near-term prices. But if talks go sideways, expect the reverse—and markets usually don’t take long to respond.
Iran keeps highlighting the promise of fast economic gains from the talks. “Common interests in the oil and gas fields, joint fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases are included in the negotiations,” said Hamid Ghanbari, the foreign ministry’s deputy director for economic diplomacy. On the U.S. side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump would opt for diplomacy but cautioned it’s not certain. U.S. officials told Reuters they’re getting ready for a potential drawn-out military campaign if negotiations break down. (Reuters)
Sanctions relief remains the headline lever in any agreement, though traders recognize these negotiations often stretch out. In the immediate term, pricing is swinging on supply risk perceptions—not on any actual change in physical barrels moving right away.
China is on track to lift Russian crude imports for a third month running, with February likely to set another record. Independent refiners have been quick to scoop up cheaper Russian barrels after India pulled back, traders said, citing ship-tracking data. Vortexa put February Russian arrivals at 2.07 million barrels a day, while Kpler’s provisional figures came in at 2.083 million bpd. Some Urals shipments, according to traders, traded at a steep $9 to $11 discount per barrel to ICE Brent. “For teapots, Russian oil looks more reliable now as people are worried about loadings of Iranian oil in case of a military confrontation,” said Emma Li, China analyst at Vortexa, pointing to the smaller, private refiners. (Reuters)
These flows are closely watched for what they reveal about how quickly trading patterns shift in response to sanctions and changing price incentives. They also help explain why certain refiners opt for Russian barrels rather than Iranian grades when geopolitical tensions flare.
On Feb. 1, eight OPEC+ countries announced they’re holding off on previously scheduled output hikes for March, citing seasonal trends and the need to stay nimble. The group reaffirmed that up to 1.65 million barrels per day might come back online, either partially or fully, if the market warrants it—and said another meeting is set for March 1. (opec.org)
Any rally kicked off by geopolitical tensions has that supply wildcard hanging overhead. Traders tend to sell into those spikes once increased output seems probable—timing’s often uncertain, but that rarely stops them.
Still, there’s a catch. Progress in Geneva could see producers boosting output, pushing crude lower as risk premiums unwind. But if negotiations unravel, military tensions can send prices spiking—though, in that scenario, the jolt may also curb demand by damaging growth.
Tuesday’s Geneva meeting is up next, with producer-group talks not set until early March. In the meantime, trading drifts on sparse holiday volume and news out of Washington or Tehran sets the tone.
