NEW YORK — 4:15 PM EST, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 — Oil prices ended the day modestly higher, then eased in late trading as markets tried to balance fresh geopolitical supply risks (Russia and Venezuela) against a persistent oversupply narrative heading into 2026.
By settlement, U.S. WTI crude rose 21 cents to $56.15 a barrel and Brent added 14 cents to $59.82. [1]
As of 9:15 PM EST, futures prices were hovering slightly below the settlement levels, with WTI around $55.89 and Brent around $59.70, according to Investing.com quotes. [2]
Oil price today (updated 9:15 PM EST): Where WTI and Brent stand now
Late Thursday evening, crude was still trapped in a tight range, reflecting a market that’s reacting to headlines but struggling to build sustained momentum:
- WTI crude (front-month futures): about $55.89 a barrel, up roughly 0.14% on the session. [3]
- Day range:$55.74 to $56.85. [4]
- Brent crude (front-month futures): about $59.70 a barrel, up slightly on the session. [5]
- Day range:$59.55 to $60.73. [6]
That put the Brent-WTI spread at roughly $3.8 late in the evening—still a modest premium that signals global pricing remains soft, even with geopolitical noise. [7]
Why oil prices moved today: The market is being pulled in two directions
Oil’s modest gain at settlement—and its hesitation after—came down to one familiar tug-of-war: headline-driven supply risk versus structural oversupply concerns.
1) U.S. sanctions risk on Russia’s energy sector is back in focus
A key bullish catalyst Thursday was renewed reporting that the United States is weighing additional sanctions tied to Russia’s energy exports, including measures that could target logistics and trading networks if peace efforts don’t progress. Reuters reported that a White House official said no final decision had been made. [8]
Importantly for oil traders, this isn’t just about barrels on paper—it’s about the ability to move and insure them, which can tighten “effective supply” even when production doesn’t immediately fall.
2) Venezuela tanker blockade headlines add supply-risk premium—but enforcement is unclear
Markets also digested the potential impact of a U.S. “blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela. Reuters noted the policy could affect roughly 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports (mostly headed to China), while some flows—like shipments under a Chevron authorization—appeared to continue. [9]
A major reason prices didn’t spike: the market still doesn’t have clear answers on how consistently the blockade will be enforced, even as the U.S. has taken more aggressive actions recently, including tanker interdiction steps cited by Reuters. [10]
3) Physical-market reality check: West African crude struggling to find buyers
If geopolitical headlines were the bullish input, the bearish counterweight came from the real-world physical market—especially West Africa.
Reuters reported that sellers of Nigerian and Angolan crude are having trouble placing up to 26 cargoes loading in December and January, with around 20 million barrels of Nigerian crude still unsold and several Angolan cargoes also available. [11]
The same report tied the difficulty in clearing these barrels to stiff competition from cheaper supply from the Middle East and parts of Latin America, and a shift by some Asian buyers toward those alternatives. [12]
This kind of detail matters because it’s the clearest “on-the-ground” signal that the market is well supplied—and that futures rallies can fade quickly if physical differentials don’t tighten.
4) U.S. inventory data: crude down, but gasoline and distillates up
U.S. petroleum data offered mixed signals. In the weekly report for the period ending Dec. 12, 2025:
- Commercial crude inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million
- Gasoline inventories rose by 4.8 million barrels
- Distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels [13]
Refineries were running hard—94.8% utilization with inputs averaging 17.0 million barrels per day—which can help explain why crude stocks fell even as product inventories built. [14]
5) Macro sentiment improved: equities rallied, supporting “demand mood”
Broader markets also played a role. Reuters’ global markets wrap highlighted a rally in stocks and easing yields after softer inflation data, while noting oil settled higher for a second day as traders assessed sanctions and Venezuela-related risks. [15]
Crude often trades like a macro asset in the short term: when recession fears rise, oil tends to sag; when risk appetite improves, oil can find a bid—even if fundamentals remain bearish.
A key technical wrinkle: Contract timing can amplify late-week volatility
The WTI front-month contract is nearing expiration, which can make price action look choppy as traders roll positions forward.
Barchart lists Dec. 19, 2025 as the expiration date for the WTI Jan ’26 contract. [16]
That matters for anyone watching “oil price today” quotes: front-month pricing can move differently than the next active contract, especially around rollover periods, and headlines can exaggerate that effect.
The big theme underneath: Oversupply anxiety is still dominating the 2026 conversation
Even with sanctions and Venezuela in the headlines, a steady drumbeat of analysis continues to point to a market that may need lower prices to rebalance unless supply is curtailed.
West Africa is a symptom of a bigger surplus story
Reuters quoted analysts suggesting unsold West African cargoes reflect a broader global supply surplus emerging into early 2026, while also describing how freight economics and alternative sources have changed buying patterns. [17]
In practical terms, when barrels in a key exporting region have trouble clearing, it’s hard for futures prices to sustain rallies—unless an outright disruption removes supply from the system.
Asia demand and trade flows are shifting
A separate Reuters analysis found that Asia’s imports of U.S. crude are expected to fall in 2025 to 1.43 million bpd, down from 2024, with China’s U.S. crude imports down 84% year over year, based on Kpler-compiled data cited by Reuters. [18]
This doesn’t automatically mean global demand is collapsing—but it does highlight how geopolitics and trade policy are reshaping flows, which can pressure certain grades and regions even when headline demand growth remains positive.
Oil price forecasts: What major outlooks said today about 2026
Today’s price action mattered—but the bigger investor question is where crude goes next, especially as forecasters keep warning about the need for prices to adjust.
EIA: Brent near $55 in early 2026, inventories rising
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects global oil inventories to continue rising through 2026, putting downward pressure on prices, and forecasts Brent averaging about $55 per barrel in Q1 2026 and staying near that level through next year. [19]
That’s one of the clearest “official” signals that even after the recent selloff, some baseline forecasters still see more downside or limited upside.
Goldman Sachs: 2026 averages of $56 Brent and $52 WTI—unless disrupted
Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI to average $56 and $52 per barrel in 2026, arguing that “lower prices…will likely be required to rebalance the market” absent major disruptions or OPEC cuts. [20]
Goldman also said it expects oil to bottom around mid-2026 before gradually recovering later, with longer-term projections pushing higher into 2028. [21]
IEA: Demand still growing—but supply growth is bigger
The International Energy Agency’s December Oil Market Report projected global oil demand growth of 830 kb/d in 2025 and 860 kb/d in 2026, while also detailing supply and inventory dynamics that point to surplus conditions. [22]
The key takeaway for traders: demand growth alone may not be enough to lift prices if supply (and inventories) continue rising faster.
Bank of America: Lower prices could start shutting in U.S. shale growth
Reuters also noted Bank of America’s view that lower oil prices could eventually reduce supply: if WTI averages $57 in 2026, BofA expects U.S. shale production could contract by about 70,000 bpd. [23]
This is one reason dips toward the mid-$50s can attract buyers—because the market starts to price in future supply restraint.
Technical and market-structure watch: $55 WTI is the line many traders are circling
Analysts tracking technical levels see a market hovering near major support.
FXEmpire’s technical commentary described a long-term support zone for WTI around $55 to $60, warning that a decisive break below $55 could open the door to a sharper decline, while a move above $65 would be a meaningful reversal signal. [24]
Meanwhile, expectations around a Russia–Ukraine peace scenario continue to hang over the curve. S&P Global reported that markets have been watching the potential for changes to Russian trade patterns and sanctions dynamics, though many experts expect any production response to be gradual rather than immediate. [25]
What to watch next: The catalysts that could move oil into the weekend
Oil traders will likely keep a close eye on five near-term drivers:
- Any concrete U.S. decision on Russia energy sanctions (scope, targets, enforcement). [26]
- Evidence of enforcement intensity around Venezuelan tanker restrictions—and whether export flows materially slow. [27]
- Physical-market clearing signals, especially West African cargo sales and Asian buying behavior. [28]
- U.S. product inventories (gasoline/distillates) as a real-time read on demand beyond crude stock draws. [29]
- Contract rollover/expiration effects in WTI, which can distort headline “oil price today” moves. [30]
Bottom line
As of 9:15 PM EST, crude is still trading in a narrow band—WTI near $56 and Brent near $60—with markets torn between geopolitics that could tighten supply and an increasingly mainstream view that 2026 begins with surplus conditions unless producers cut or disruptions bite harder. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.eia.gov, 14. ir.eia.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.iea.org, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.spglobal.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. ir.eia.gov, 30. www.barchart.com, 31. www.investing.com
