Oil Price Today, December 4, 2025: Brent Near $63 and WTI Around $59 as Ukraine Strikes, OPEC+ Freeze and Oversupply Collide

Global oil prices are edging higher today, but the move is modest and still framed by a bigger story of oversupply and cautious forecasts for 2026. Brent crude is trading just under $63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits around $59 per barrel, after a month of tight ranges and heavy focus on OPEC+ policy, Ukraine–Russia peace talks and fresh downgrades to long‑term price forecasts. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at where prices stand today, what’s moving the market, and how new forecasts from Fitch and other analysts are reshaping expectations for 2025–2027.

1. Where Oil Prices Stand Today (December 4, 2025)

Spot / front‑month levels

As of late morning in Europe on Thursday, December 4, 2025:

Brent crude futures are trading around $62.9–$63.0 per barrel, up about 0.3–0.4% on the day. ^[2]
WTI crude is hovering near $59.2–$59.3 per barrel, also up roughly 0.5–0.6% versus Wednesday’s close. ^[3]

Different data providers show small intraday discrepancies, but they all tell the same story: oil is slightly firmer today after a quiet, range‑bound November.

Performance in context

Brent is down about 12–13% year‑on‑year and roughly 1% lower over the past month, according to Trading Economics’ daily series. ^[4]
WTI is down more than 14% year‑to‑date and about 2% lower over the last month, even after this week’s rebound. ^[5]
ICE Brent futures have averaged roughly $68.8 per barrel from January to November 2025, more than $11 below the 2024 average, highlighting how far prices have slipped from last year’s levels. ^[6]

In short, today’s bounce comes against a clearly bearish 2025 backdrop: prices are higher than the market’s worst moments earlier in the year but still comfortably below 2024 and long‑term averages.

2. Today’s Main Driver: Ukraine Strikes on Russian Oil Assets and Stalled Peace Talks

The key news story driving today’s modest gains is renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, paired with frustratingly slow peace negotiations.

Drone strikes and the Druzhba pipeline

Ukraine hit the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, one of Europe’s major conduits for Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. This was at least the fifth attack on the pipeline, according to Ukrainian and Reuters reporting. ^[7]
Despite the strike, the pipeline operator and Hungary’s national oil and gas company said flows are continuing normally, which is why the price reaction has been limited rather than dramatic. ^[8]

Beyond pipelines, Ukraine has ramped up drone strikes on Russian refineries:

Consultancy Kpler estimates these attacks have cut Russian refining throughput to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, roughly 335,000 bpd lower than a year earlier, with gasoline and gasoil hit hardest. ^[9]

These disruptions raise the perceived risk premium in oil, especially in refined products, but because exports and pipeline flows have not been seriously curtailed so far, the impact on crude prices remains contained.

Peace talks that go nowhere

At the same time, Ukraine–Russia peace efforts have stalled:

Envoys of U.S. President Donald Trump returned from talks with the Kremlin with no breakthrough or clear roadmap for ending the war, dampening earlier hopes that sanctions on Russian oil might soon be relaxed. ^[10]

Earlier optimism about a quick peace deal had pushed prices lower on the assumption that Russian barrels would rush back into an already oversupplied market. The lack of progress now nudges prices higher, not because demand is strong, but because the “bearish peace scenario” looks less imminent.

Put together, the supply risk from attacks and lack of a peace deal are giving crude a gentle lift today, but they are running into a wall of bearish fundamentals.

3. The Bearish Counterweight: U.S. Inventory Builds and Record Output

If geopolitics are leaning bullish, fundamentals are leaning bearish.

U.S. crude and fuel inventories keep rising

Fresh weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that:

Commercial crude stocks rose by about 574,000–600,000 barrels in the week ending November 28, to roughly 427.5 million barrels, versus market expectations for a sizeable draw of almost 2 million barrels. ^[11]
Gasoline inventories surged by about 4.5 million barrels to over 214 million barrels, signalling soft demand. ^[12]

Rising inventories in the world’s largest oil consumer send a clear message: consumption is not strong enough to absorb current supply, let alone additional barrels.

U.S. production remains near record highs

EIA weekly data suggest U.S. crude output is around 13.8 million barrels per day, essentially at record levels, even as growth is expected to flatten in 2026. ^[13]

This dynamic—high inventories plus record production—helps explain why today’s geopolitical headlines are producing only a mild bounce instead of a sustained rally.

4. OPEC+ Has Locked In a Production Pause for Q1 2026

Another crucial piece of the puzzle is OPEC+ policy, which has now been clarified through the first quarter of 2026.

Output frozen, capacity mechanism approved

At meetings held at the end of November, OPEC+ decided to:

Keep oil output unchanged throughout Q1 2026, effectively pausing further production increases after a year in which eight members collectively raised targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day. ^[14]
Maintain roughly 3.24 million bpd of cuts compared with pre‑cut levels—around 3% of global demand—including a long‑standing 2 million bpd group‑wide reduction that runs through the end of 2026. ^[15]
Approve a new mechanism to assess each member’s maximum sustainable production capacity during 2026, which will be used to set baseline quotas from 2027 onward, a key step in resolving long‑running disputes about who deserves what share of the pie. ^[16]

Analysts describe the decision as a “stability over ambition” move: the group is accepting flat output in the near term to avoid deepening an expected surplus.

IEA expects a large surplus in early 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and various analyst houses see a hefty surplus ahead:

A Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts suggests global oil markets could be in surplus by anywhere from 0.5 to over 4 million barrels per day in 2026, with the IEA on the high end at around 4.1 mbpd. ^[17]

Against that backdrop, OPEC+’s decision to freeze Q1 2026 output looks less like an aggressive support move and more like the bare minimum needed to prevent a deeper price slide.

5. Fresh Forecasts: Fitch and Analysts Turn More Cautious

Fitch cuts its 2025–2027 oil price assumptions

In a major development for medium‑term expectations, Fitch Ratings has lowered its base‑case oil price assumptions:

Brent crude
- 2025: $69/bbl (down from $70)
- 2026: $63/bbl (down from $65)
- 2027: $63/bbl (down from $65)
WTI crude
- 2025: $64/bbl (down from $65)
- 2026–2027: $58/bbl (down from $60) ^[18]

Fitch explicitly cites “large market oversupply”, with production growth expected to outpace only modest increases in demand. It forecasts global oil demand growth of about 0.8 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, below historical norms, reflecting slower GDP growth, petrochemical weakness and the energy transition. ^[19]

Fitch’s stress‑case scenario keeps even lower prices in the outer years but is mainly a risk management framework for corporate credit analysis.

Reuters poll: 2026 averages slip to the low 60s

The caution is widespread:

A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts expects Brent to average about $62.23/bbl in 2026, down from October’s $63.15 forecast.
WTI is forecast to average around $59/bbl. ^[20]

The same poll underscores the oversupply narrative, pointing to increased OPEC+ output since April and robust non‑OPEC supply, with U.S. production near records.

Market commentary: a floor, but not much upside

Oilprice.com’s recent macro analysis synthesises this emerging consensus:

2026 forecasts clustering around $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI.
The IEA’s surplus projections are seen as aggressive but even the most conservative views expect stock builds, not deficits next year.
With WTI projected to average around $59, slightly below the breakeven for new Permian wells, analysts argue this may create a de facto price floor by discouraging high‑cost supply, reducing the odds of a sharp, sustained collapse. ^[21]

The net takeaway: today’s prices near $63 (Brent) and $59 (WTI) are very close to where major institutions expect them to average over the next 12–24 months.

6. Short‑Term Technical Picture: Range‑Bound With a Mild Bullish Bias

Beyond macro fundamentals, several technical analysts released intraday commentary for December 4:

Brent crude is described by Economies.com as trading above its 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA50), using that level as “dynamic support” while attempting to build enough bullish momentum to extend its positive intraday path. ^[22]
A companion note on generic crude oil (closely tracking WTI) says prices recently dipped but remain above EMA50 and along a minor upward trend line, with oscillators having flashed negative signals before stabilising—conditions that often precede short‑term recoveries within an existing uptrend. ^[23]

Meanwhile, brokerage research (e.g., recent notes from Forex‑focused platforms) characterises WTI as “neutral around $60”, with intraday volatility under 0.2% for much of the week—evidence of a tight, indecisive trading range rather than a strong directional trend. ^[24]

Key technical takeaway:
The charts largely agree with the fundamentals and forecasts: crude looks range‑bound, with $60 for WTI and the low‑to‑mid $60s for Brent acting as important pivot zones rather than launching pads for a new bull market.

7. What Today’s Oil Price Means for Consumers and Businesses

For fuel and inflation

With Brent in the low $60s, headline crude prices are far from the triple‑digit spikes seen earlier in the decade, easing pressure on global inflation compared to 2022–23.
However, refined fuel prices still depend heavily on local taxes, refinery margins and logistics. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and shipping routes can lift diesel and gasoline cracks even if crude remains muted, especially in Europe. ^[25]

In other words, cheap(er) crude does not automatically guarantee cheap fuel, but it is helping central banks and households compared with the peak‑inflation years.

For oil‑linked stocks and producers

Lower long‑term assumptions from Fitch and a softer 2026 average in analyst polls imply more conservative cash‑flow projections for oil majors and independents. ^[26]
Companies with low lifting costs, strong balance sheets and diversified portfolios (especially those integrating gas and renewables) look better positioned under a $60–$65 Brent world than high‑cost, highly leveraged producers.

Equity investors are likely to reward discipline and shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) over aggressive volume growth as long as oversupply dominates the narrative.

8. Key Risks and Catalysts to Watch After Today

Even if oil looks “stuck” near current levels, there are several ways the story could change:

Ukraine–Russia peace track
- A credible peace framework that includes a gradual rollback of sanctions could unleash more Russian supply and push prices lower.
- Conversely, a breakdown in talks or further attacks on export terminals, pipelines or tankers could sharply raise the risk premium. ^[27]
OPEC+ discipline and internal tensions
- The new capacity‑assessment framework will reopen the long‑running debate over quotas for countries like the UAE and some African producers. A messy negotiation in 2026 could fracture unity and undermine the production freeze. ^[28]
Demand surprises
- If global growth in 2026 surprises to the upside, or if Chinese demand rebounds more strongly than current forecasts suggest, the expected surplus could narrow quickly.
- On the flip side, a deeper downturn or faster‑than‑expected energy‑transition effects could entrench sub‑$60 WTI pricing.
U.S. shale and investment response
- With projected WTI averages drifting near or below new well breakevens in some basins, persistent low prices could slow investment more sharply than currently modelled, tightening balances later in the decade. ^[29]

9. Quick FAQ: Oil Price Today

Is oil going up or down today?
Today, prices are up modestly—Brent and WTI are each higher by roughly 0.3–0.6%—mostly on supply‑risk headlines from Ukraine and stalled peace talks, but gains are capped by weak fundamentals and oversupply worries. ^[30]

Why isn’t oil higher given all the geopolitical risk?
Because stocks are building, U.S. production is near records, and OPEC+ has already moved from deep cuts to cautious increases and now a freeze. The market sees plenty of barrels for 2026, so geopolitical events need to produce actual, sustained supply losses to meaningfully lift prices. ^[31]

What do major forecasters expect for the next few years?

Fitch now assumes $69 Brent in 2025, drifting to $63 in 2026–27, with WTI at $64 then $58. ^[32]
A Reuters poll pegs 2026 Brent at about $62 and WTI at $59. ^[33]

That means today’s levels are very close to where professionals expect the market to trade on average over the medium term, unless something big changes in supply, demand or policy.