NEW YORK, April 15, 2026, 16:03 (EDT)
- Brent finished 14 cents higher at $94.93 per barrel, with WTI eking out a 1-cent gain to $91.29. Lower traffic through Hormuz helped counterbalance speculation about diplomatic efforts picking up again.
- U.S. crude inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and distillate supplies slipped as well.
- The IEA is projecting a slight dip in oil demand for 2026. OPEC has trimmed its outlook too, lowering its second-quarter demand estimate by 500,000 barrels per day.
Oil ended little changed Wednesday. Brent edged up 14 cents to finish at $94.93 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures ticked just a penny higher, closing at $91.29. Optimism around potential U.S.-Iran talks, along with President Donald Trump saying the war was “close to over,” capped any significant gains. Still, muted tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial route for crude shipments—helped prevent a bigger drop. Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG trade. Crude futures dropped under $100 after the recent surge, but there’s still a risk premium built in as tankers aren’t moving through the corridor like usual. Traders are paying up just in case disruptions return.
John Kilduff at Again Capital thinks traders are leaning toward “a better outcome.” But PVM’s Tamas Varga flagged that the selloff is ignoring the “loss of physical barrels” stuck due to the ongoing supply disruption. Reuters
It’s been 45 days since Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced the strait was closed, and traffic through the passage hasn’t recovered—crossings remain far below the 130-plus daily trips logged before the conflict, according to Reuters. Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball estimates the cumulative hit to Middle East crude and condensate at 496 million barrels. Meanwhile, Washington confirmed it will end waivers that let some buyers import Iranian and Russian oil without sanctions.
WTI found some support after an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stocks slipped by 0.9 million barrels last week, landing at 463.8 million barrels. Gasoline was down 6.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories shed 3.1 million barrels.
Demand is starting to feel the pinch from the supply shock. The IEA labeled the resumption of Hormuz flows as “the single most important variable” for any price relief, and now projects global oil supply will fall by 1.5 million barrels a day this year. Its outlook for 2026 demand has flipped to show a slight contraction. OPEC, for its part, trimmed its second-quarter demand estimate by 500,000 barrels a day but left its full-year growth projection steady. Reuters
Physical oil is feeling the pinch far more than the futures market right now, with prompt cargoes fetching eye-watering prices. On Monday, Reuters noted that North Sea Forties for near-term delivery surged to a record $148.87 a barrel. Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz described physical trading as “under a lot of strain” as buyers scramble for barrels outside the Gulf. Reuters
Goldman Sachs is now seeing two-way risks in its 2026 oil price outlook, sticking with forecasts of $83 a barrel for Brent and $78 for WTI. On one hand, the bank points to production shut-ins that haven’t been as severe as feared, plus renewed optimism around a possible peace agreement—both factors putting downward pressure on prices. But with Hormuz crude flows still hovering at just about 10% of typical volumes, Goldman says there’s also a strong case for prices to move higher.
This market’s on shaky ground. Varga says March’s peak could be back in play if negotiations break down or the shipping rebound stumbles. On the flip side, if strait traffic picks up speed, that extra geopolitical cushion might vanish in a hurry.
Markets more broadly are signaling de-escalation. David Seif, Nomura’s chief economist for developed markets, notes equities “rallied back pretty aggressively.” Oil traders, though, are still keeping a close eye on a shipping lane that’s nowhere near fully open. Reuters
