NEW YORK, Jan 8, 2026, 06:20 EST — Premarket
- Oil up about 1% after a bigger-than-expected U.S. crude draw, with Venezuela and Russia sanctions in focus
- Exxon edges higher in premarket after flagging up to a $1.2 billion hit to fourth-quarter upstream earnings
- Traders watch U.S. jobs data and policy signals on Venezuelan exports
Exxon Mobil shares were up about 0.1% in premarket trade at $118.61 on Thursday, after ending the prior session down 2.1%. In a regulatory filing, Exxon said lower crude prices could trim fourth-quarter upstream — its oil and gas production business — earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion. The filing also showed stronger refining margins, a gauge of profit from turning crude into fuel, could add $300 million to $700 million, with results due on Jan. 30. 1
That tug-of-war is shaping early positioning into the energy earnings run, with traders looking for any hint that buybacks will slow if crude stays stuck near $60. For now, a lot of the talk is in Washington and Caracas, not in the oilfields.
Brent crude was up 59 cents, or 1%, at $60.55 a barrel by 5:38 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 58 cents to $56.57. Tamas Varga at PVM said prices firmed after President Donald Trump gave a Russia sanctions bill a green light, raising fears of disruption to Russian exports. Washington also announced a deal to gain access to up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude and seized two Venezuela-linked tankers in the Atlantic. 2
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million in the week ending Jan. 2, while gasoline stocks jumped 7.7 million and distillate inventories rose 5.6 million. Refineries ran at 94.7% of operable capacity, the agency said. 3
Chevron is in talks with the U.S. government to expand its license in Venezuela so it can increase crude exports to its own refineries and sell to other buyers, four sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. Limits imposed in July cut the volume Chevron exported to the U.S. to about 100,000 barrels per day in December from 250,000 earlier in 2025, the sources said. Washington is also pushing to bring Exxon, ConocoPhillips and refiner Valero into Venezuelan export discussions, while PDVSA said negotiations were moving ahead on commercial terms. 4
Some of the initial selling in crude earlier this week looked overdone, Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, wrote, calling the market’s negative read on possible U.S. control of Venezuela’s oil “misplaced”. If the U.S. ends up controlling sales and revenue indefinitely, Hynes said, sanctions could stay in place and that would be bullish near term. 5
But oversupply still hangs over the tape. Morgan Stanley analysts said on Tuesday that OPEC, the producer group, and non-OPEC supply grew strongly between late 2024 and late 2025, setting up the possibility of a first-half 2026 surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day. Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah said Venezuela may add only about 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years on limited incremental spending — a slow ramp, but it still adds barrels into a market where demand growth is already lagging trend. 6
