HOUSTON, March 21, 2026, 13:32 UTC-05:00
Oil surged to levels not seen in almost four years, fueled by Iraq’s force majeure declaration on foreign-operated fields and fresh turmoil across the Middle East. Brent closed out Friday at $112.19 a barrel—its highest mark since July 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, with the April contract set to expire, finished at $98.32. For the week, Brent jumped 8.8%, but front-month WTI slipped about 0.4% from last Friday.
Oil’s more than 40% jump since late February has turned into something bigger than an energy headline. Now, traders are baking in expectations for longer disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, that critical bottleneck handling roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG traffic. Then there’s Iraq’s force majeure notice — basically a legal pause button when things go off the rails — which has stoked fresh worries about inflation sticking around, and a slowdown in interest-rate cuts.
Oil prices retreated to start the week. Brent dropped 2.8% to $100.21, while WTI tumbled 5.3% to $93.50 on Monday. A few vessels managed to pass through Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency signaled possible further emergency stock releases.
The reprieve proved short. By Tuesday, Iranian strikes targeting the United Arab Emirates forced a partial shutdown at Fujairah, sending UAE production tumbling by over 50%. Prices jumped—Brent hit $103.42, WTI $96.21. “It only takes one Iranian militia to fire a missile or plant a mine on a passing tanker to reignite the entire situation,” IG’s Tony Sycamore noted. Reuters
Prices moved higher on Wednesday after Iran hit several Gulf energy facilities, among them Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial city. Brent ended the session at $107.38 and pushed higher after hours. SEB’s Ole Hvalbye warned that “any further escalations of attacks to energy infrastructure would continue to raise prices.” In response, Washington rolled out a Jones Act waiver and relaxed summer gasoline regulations to ease fuel costs at home. Reuters
Thursday’s oil session was a rollercoaster. Brent shot up to $119.13, only to tumble and settle at $108.65. WTI managed to crack $100 for a moment before fading to $96.14. Traders were eyeing talk of more U.S. emergency crude hitting the market, along with chatter about unlocking some 140 million barrels of stuck Iranian oil. That mix blew out the Brent-WTI spread to an 11-year record. “Something to calm the price rally at least for a moment,” was how Again Capital’s John Kilduff put the volume. For Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn, backing off those peak prices showed “the market has gained more confidence in supply.” Reuters
By Friday, traders in the physical market were staring at much tighter conditions than what futures suggested. Dubai crude surged to an unprecedented $166.80 a barrel. Norway’s Johan Sverdrup crude fetched an $11.30 premium over Brent. Northwest European jet fuel was quoted around $220 a barrel, with refiners hustling to secure replacement supply—especially sour crude, the higher-sulphur barrels typical from the Middle East. “The market ultimately runs on barrels moving, not barrels being announced,” said David Jorbenaze, oil market lead at ICIS. Reuters
On Friday, Washington handed out 45.2 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to firms like BP, Shell, and Marathon Petroleum—part of the initial phase of a broader emergency effort. This batch falls under the IEA’s larger 400 million-barrel release, intended to put a lid on fuel prices. Still, it won’t reopen the Hormuz Strait or fix the battered Gulf facilities.
Goldman Sachs is sticking with its base case for now, expecting oil flows to start normalizing from April and Brent to drift down into the $70s by Q4 2026. But the bank isn’t ruling out a much bigger shock: if the Hormuz situation drags on and production damage sticks, crude could easily stay north of $100 for an extended stretch—potentially marking an unprecedented supply jolt.
