New York, March 27, 2026, 14:53 EDT.
Oil moved higher Friday afternoon, Brent crude advancing 3.3% to $111.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 4.3% to $98.54 as of 1:14 p.m. ET. Still, Brent remained headed for its first weekly decline since Feb. 9. Traders showed skepticism toward President Donald Trump’s upbeat remarks on Iran negotiations. Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova flagged that traders seemed focused on “war longevity, not just headlines.” UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo noted that each additional day of limited supply leaves the market short by upwards of 10 million barrels. Reuters
The supply shock hasn’t faded. The International Energy Agency is calling this the biggest disruption the global oil market has ever seen. The Strait of Hormuz, which usually moves some 20 million barrels a day in crude and oil products, is now barely moving any traffic. That collapse in flows has pushed IEA member nations into an unprecedented emergency release—400 million barrels from their stockpiles.
Traders aren’t letting up on bets for another surge: open interest in June Brent $150 call options has shot up to 28,941 lots—nearly tenfold what it was a month back. Those contracts, which let buyers lock in future purchases at a fixed price, are drawing renewed action. Tim Skirrow at Energy Aspects pointed to the move as a sign investors are looking to hedge against “tail risk outcomes” tied to the war. Reuters
But there’s room for crude to slip. Barclays, sticking to its base case, expects Hormuz traffic back to normal by early April—a view that lines up with Brent at $85 a barrel for 2026. Still, the bank flagged a bigger risk: if the waterway stays blocked longer, 13 million to 14 million barrels a day could drop from global supply, driving 2026 Brent to $100 by late April. If the disruption keeps dragging into May, those futures could see $110.
Asia’s crude trade is already shifting gears. Japan’s industry ministry told wholesalers to peg gasoline prices to Brent instead of Dubai, hoping to keep a lid on retail prices. At the same time, refiners across Asia have started pricing U.S. cargoes off Brent, with Dubai — the Middle East’s go-to benchmark — jumping to a record $169.75 last week.
Rising crude prices are pushing up forecasts for oil stocks. LSEG data shows analysts took up their first-quarter profit estimates for Chevron by roughly 40%, while Shell’s earnings view moved higher by about 15%. Exxon Mobil didn’t see as much of a bump. “The first quarter is going to be phenomenal” for the sector, said Roth Capital Partners’ Leo Mariani. Reuters
Supply remains sluggish. Baker Hughes reported U.S. drillers dropped nine oil and gas rigs this week, pushing the total down to 543—marking the lowest count since Jan. 16. Producers aren’t rushing, despite crude prices holding above $90. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects domestic crude output will inch up to 13.61 million barrels per day in 2026, just a slight increase from 13.59 million in 2025.
Traders are keeping their eyes on the negotiations, tanker routes, and Kharg Island—Iran’s main export point. A Reuters survey of 13 analysts put Brent at an average of $134.62 under the ongoing disruptions, but if Kharg Island is targeted, that jumps to $153.85. DBS Bank’s Suvro Sarkar warned that “all Asian countries will feel the pinch” as long as the Strait stays blocked. Yet the same poll flagged the potential for prices to fall sharply if the war wraps up soon and shipping risks subside. Reuters
