NEW YORK, Jan 11, 2026, 12:40 EST — Market closed
U.S. oil inventories enter the new week with renewed focus on Washington’s timeline for Venezuela. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated more sanctions could be eased “as soon as next week” to boost oil exports. He mentioned Treasury is considering adjustments to allow proceeds from Venezuela’s oil—mostly stored on ships—to flow back into the country. Bessent also said he plans meetings next week with IMF and World Bank leaders. Reuters
Why it matters now: quicker access for Venezuelan crude to the U.S. market would challenge an already narrow band for oil prices and shift near-term forecasts for refiners’ feedstock expenses and producers’ profit margins. It would signal that policy moves—not just OPEC+ decisions or U.S. shale output—could drive supply changes this quarter.
Venezuela isn’t just one trade for investors. It’s a tangle of shifting elements — sanctions, security issues, and control over cash — all hitting a market already on edge over disruption risks and oversupply.
Chevron (CVX) climbed roughly 1.8% ahead of the weekend, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) gaining around 1.4%. ConocoPhillips (COP) slipped about 1.2%, while oilfield services players SLB and Halliburton (HAL) pushed higher, up approximately 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively. EOG Resources (EOG) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) saw declines.
Oil prices closed the week on a strong note. Brent crude finished Friday at $63.34 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended at $59.12. Tensions in Iran and a worsening conflict in Ukraine continued to fuel concerns over supply disruptions, Reuters reported. Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group pointed to the “uprising in Iran” as a key factor keeping traders nervous. Reuters
President Donald Trump signed an emergency executive order to prevent courts or creditors from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts, according to the White House. The order doesn’t specify any companies, but it impacts firms with existing claims, like ConocoPhillips. Its CEO told White House officials the company is owed $12 billion.
Company executives expressed interest but remained cautious. Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as “uninvestable,” emphasizing the need for security guarantees and legal reforms before dispatching a technical team, Reuters reported. Chevron vice chairman Mark Nelson said the company could double “liftings”—crude cargoes loaded for export—at joint ventures with PDVSA right away, and boost production by around 50% within 18 to 24 months. Reuters
Not all shareholders are convinced by the simple narrative. “Investors will want to see long-lasting stability and good fiscal terms” to shield against the risk of asset nationalization, said David Byrns, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst at American Century Investments, which holds shares in Chevron and Exxon. Reuters
The Venezuela push has a flip side for U.S. producers. Trump has pushed for $50 oil, but industry leaders warn that flooding the U.S. market with tens of millions of Venezuelan barrels could tighten shale margins. Prices are already beneath what many drillers need to fund new wells, Reuters reported. Linhua Guan, CEO of Surge Energy America, said the influx would put pressure on domestic shale. Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners added prices will continue dropping until OPEC cuts output or U.S. shale players scale back budgets.
There’s a catch for both bulls and bears. Venezuela’s investment setup might lag behind what the White House expects, leaving big players hesitant. Meanwhile, any fresh tensions in Iran or another shock tied to Russia’s war could spike crude prices and throw the market into turmoil.
Investors are zeroing in on one clear thing: Monday’s U.S. market open. After that, all eyes turn to any U.S. Treasury updates during the week about sanctions and how Venezuelan cargoes will be sold — those details tend to shift oil prices quicker than corporate announcements.
