NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 09:31 ET — Market closed
- Oil and energy shares are in focus after the U.S. said it struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro
- Brent last settled at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. crude at $57.32 ahead of Sunday evening futures trading
- Wall Street’s first close of 2026 was modestly higher, with jobs data due Jan. 9 looming
Oil markets and U.S. stocks are bracing for a volatile start to the week after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in an overnight operation that included strikes on military installations, according to President Donald Trump. Trump said Washington would take temporary control of Venezuela as it seeks a political transition.
The developments matter because Venezuela sits on the world’s largest crude reserves and is a swing factor for heavy oil supplies. Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels — roughly 17% of global reserves — but production has fallen to about 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), official data show.
Traders are weighing two opposing forces. A messy transition that disrupts exports can lift near-term crude prices, while a fast easing of U.S. restrictions could eventually add barrels to a market already worried about surplus.
Brent crude futures last settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate down 10 cents at $57.32. Both benchmarks fell nearly 20% in 2025 — their steepest annual slide since 2020 — leaving prices sensitive to headlines that change the supply outlook.
U.S. stocks ended the first session of 2026 modestly higher. The Dow rose 0.66% to 48,382.39, the S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 6,858.47, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.03% to 23,235.63.
The immediate flashpoint for oil is whether Venezuelan crude can move. Four sources close to operations said exports are paralyzed because port captains have not received requests to clear loaded ships, after Trump said an oil embargo was in full effect. TankerTrackers.com said no tankers were loading on Saturday at the main Jose port.
A prolonged halt would tighten supplies of heavy crude — a thicker grade that many U.S. Gulf Coast plants are designed to process into fuels such as gasoline and diesel. That tends to shift margins between producers and refiners, and can quickly show up in energy share moves when the market reopens.
A smoother political shift could instead reroute Venezuelan barrels toward the United States and away from China, analysts said. Venezuelan crude exports to the United States peaked at 1.4 million bpd in 1997 but fell sharply after sanctions; they recovered to 227,000 bpd in 2024 and 140,000 bpd in the first 10 months of 2025 after Washington issued Chevron a waiver to keep operating joint ventures, Reuters data show. China took more than half of Venezuela’s 768,000 bpd crude exports last year, according to Kpler.
Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said he expected the broader market’s first reaction to be muted, but added: “Big Oil and the drillers are likely to get a bid.” Reuters
OPEC+, the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, kept output policy unchanged on Sunday and reaffirmed a pause in production hikes for January through March. The group is due to meet next on Feb. 1.
The risk for equities is a risk-off swing — investors moving into safer assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the dollar and stepping away from cyclical shares. For oil, the downside scenario is the opposite: a rapid policy shift that brings discounted Venezuelan crude back into legal trade flows could keep prices under pressure.
Beyond Venezuela, the next tests come fast. Investors are watching the U.S. employment report due Jan. 9 and the consumer price index on Jan. 13 for clues on the Federal Reserve’s path, while fourth-quarter earnings season starts with major bank results including JPMorgan on Jan. 13. Strategists have said the S&P 500 is hovering near its late-October level, leaving a breakout from its recent range as an early technical tell.
Traders will focus first on the reopening of U.S. stock index and crude futures at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, then Monday’s New York cash open for energy shares. They will also watch for U.S. guidance on Venezuelan sanctions and shipping, and for Maduro’s first Manhattan court appearance on Monday for the next headline catalyst.
