Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: OLMA) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s wilder biotech stories: a tiny oncology name that’s run more than eightfold off its 52-week low, pulled back on a big equity raise, and now sits in the middle of a high-stakes bet on a single breast-cancer drug.
Below is a structured look at OLMA stock today, the latest news, Street forecasts, and the key risks investors are debating as of December 9, 2025.
OLMA stock today: price, performance and volatility
As of the latest trade on December 9, 2025, Olema Pharmaceuticals shares change hands at around $26–27 per share, after an intraday range roughly between $25.65 and $28.4. [1]
Over the last 12 months, the stock has:
- Traded in a 52-week range of $2.86 to $29.51, putting today’s price roughly 12% below the recent high and more than 800% above the low. [2]
- Delivered a triple-digit percentage gain over the past year, significantly outpacing broad biotech benchmarks. [3]
- Reached a market capitalization in the neighborhood of $2–2.2 billion, depending on which intraday price you pick. [4]
In plain English: OLMA is no longer a tiny micro-cap experiment. It’s a mid-cap biotech with real institutional attention and the kind of volatility that keeps options traders awake at night.
Why Olema’s stock exploded in November
Roche’s oral SERD data lit the fuse
The current rally really kicked off in mid-November, when Roche reported positive Phase 3 results for its oral SERD (selective estrogen receptor degrader) giredestrant in early-stage breast cancer. That drug beat standard aromatase inhibitor therapy on invasive disease-free survival – a first for an oral SERD – and the read-through for Olema’s own oral SERD, palazestrant (OP-1250), was immediate. [5]
On that news, OLMA stock jumped more than 100% in a single session, briefly hitting multi-year highs. [6]
Oppenheimer, which already covered Olema, leaned into the story:
- Raised its probability of success for palazestrant from 50% to 75%.
- More than doubled its price target from $22 to $45, maintaining an “Outperform” rating. [7]
The logic is straightforward: if Roche can validate oral SERDs as a class in early-stage disease, Olema’s drug suddenly plays in a multi-billion-dollar market, not just late-line metastatic settings.
Analyst upgrades piled on
Oppenheimer wasn’t alone. HC Wainwright lifted its price target on OLMA from $28 to $36 and reiterated a “Buy” rating shortly afterward. [8]
Across various data providers, the analyst picture now looks roughly like this:
- MarketBeat: 9 analysts, average 12-month target around $30, with a range from $20 to $45, implying ~10% upside from the high-20s. [9]
- Investing.com: 8 analysts, average target about $36.5, with a range of $21 to $55, and a “Strong Buy” consensus. [10]
- Public.com: 6 analysts, Strong Buy consensus and a near-term target around $30. [11]
The exact numbers differ by platform, but the theme is consistent: Street analysts, as a group, are bullish, with targets mostly in the $30–$37 band and a few high-conviction outliers above that.
Dilution and cash: the $218.5 million stock offering
Rallies like that rarely go un-monetized in biotech, and Olema followed a familiar playbook.
From proposed offering to full exercise of the greenshoe
- November 18, 2025: Olema announced a proposed public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants. The stock sold off on the dilution headline. [12]
- November 19, 2025: The company priced a $190 million offering. [13]
- November 20, 2025: Olema closed the deal, with underwriters fully exercising their option to buy additional shares, bringing gross proceeds to about $218.5 million at $19 per share. [14]
Given that Olema ended the third quarter (September 30, 2025) with $329 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, the raise likely pushes the pro-forma cash position to well over half a billion dollars before fees and future burn. [15]
For investors, that has two opposite implications:
- Positive: A stronger balance sheet that can support multiple Phase 3 trials and combination studies without immediate financing risk.
- Negative: Meaningful dilution to existing shareholders and a reminder that this story is still years away from potential commercial revenue.
Pipeline focus: palazestrant and the OPERA program
Olema is, at this point, mostly a single-asset story built around palazestrant, an oral CERAN/SERD designed to shut down estrogen receptor signaling more completely than traditional endocrine therapies.
Key late-stage programs include:
- OPERA-01 (Phase 3): Palazestrant as a single agent for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in a later-line setting. The company now guides to top-line data in the second half of 2026. [16]
- OPERA-02 (Phase 3): Palazestrant plus Novartis’ CDK4/6 inhibitor ribociclib as first-line therapy for ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer, comparing against the standard letrozole + ribociclib combo. Olema is presenting a trial-in-progress poster at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS) 2025. [17]
On top of that, Olema has moved to broaden palazestrant’s footprint through collaborations:
- A clinical trial agreement with Pfizer to test palazestrant in combination with Pfizer’s CDK2/4 inhibitor atirmociclib in ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, with an initial ~35-patient Phase 1b/2 study planned to inform a potential pivotal frontline trial. [18]
Regulatorily, the program has tailwinds:
- Palazestrant already holds FDA Fast Track designation for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer that has progressed after prior endocrine therapy plus a CDK4/6 inhibitor. [19]
Put simply, Olema has positioned palazestrant as a potential next-generation backbone endocrine partner in combination regimens – not just another late-line salvage drug.
Financials: loss-making today, funded for the next leg
Olema’s third-quarter 2025 numbers were quintessential clinical-stage biotech:
- Q3 2025 revenue: essentially $0 – the company has no approved products. [20]
- R&D expense: about $40.0 million for the quarter, up from ~$33.2 million a year earlier, driven by expanding clinical programs. [21]
- G&A expense: about $5.9 million in Q3 2025. [22]
- Net loss: approximately $42.2 million for Q3, versus $34.6 million in Q3 2024. [23]
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities:$329 million as of September 30, 2025. [24]
Management commentary and external analysis suggest that, pre-offering, the company believed it was funded into key 2026 readouts. [25] After the November equity raise, the liquidity runway is considerably extended, though the exact duration will depend on future trial expansion and any new programs brought into the pipeline.
Valuation-wise, various platforms report a negative P/E ratio (~-15), which is mainly a reminder that earnings are negative and traditional P/E metrics aren’t especially useful for a pre-revenue biotech. [26]
What the forecasts and models are saying
Beyond fundamental analyst coverage, a few quantitative and AI-flavored platforms offer their own takes on OLMA:
- Danelfin AI assigns Olema an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell) based on the probability of beating the market over the next three months, even while citing an average Street target of $36.5. [27]
- StockInvest.us frames the technical picture as constructive, highlighting the stock’s position well above its major moving averages and projecting a bullish tendency in the short term, while acknowledging high volatility and the risk of sharp pullbacks. [28]
The tension here is classic biotech:
- Fundamental/clinical expectations and traditional analyst models skew optimistic, banking on palazestrant hitting in Phase 3 and capturing significant market share.
- Short-term quantitative models flag the recent parabolic move and heavy news-driven flows as a reason to be cautious about near-term risk-reward.
To translate that into normal-human language: the Street likes the story, but the stock has already sprinted a long way, and algorithms are allergic to vertical charts.
Key risks investors are debating
Even with bullish coverage, OLMA is far from a “set it and forget it” situation. Major risk factors include:
- Clinical risk – palazestrant has to deliver in Phase 3
- The entire valuation is heavily concentrated in a single drug and a single biological mechanism.
- If OPERA-01 or OPERA-02 miss primary endpoints or show an unfavorable safety profile, Olema’s market cap could compress very quickly – the flip side of the upside leverage. [29]
- Competitive landscape
- Roche’s success is a blessing and a curse: it validates the SERD class, but also means Olema may be competing with a much larger, deeply entrenched pharma company pushing its own oral SERD. [30]
- Other endocrine and targeted therapies (including next-gen SERDs and combination regimens) are in development across multiple big pharma pipelines.
- Financing and dilution
- The $218.5 million raise was well-timed, but also diluted existing holders and highlights that Olema will likely need periodic capital until (and unless) it becomes cash-flow positive. [31]
- Execution risk
- Running multiple global Phase 3 trials, complex combination studies, and big-pharma collaborations requires clinical and operational discipline. Delays, protocol changes or regulatory surprises could all alter the risk-reward profile.
- Valuation and sentiment swings
- After an ~8–9x run from the 52-week low, even small disappointments can trigger outsized drawdowns as short-term money heads for the exits. [32]
Bottom line: how OLMA looks on December 9, 2025
As of December 9, 2025, Olema Pharmaceuticals sits at the intersection of validated biology, late-stage clinical risk, and freshly fortified finances:
- The science (oral SERDs in ER+ breast cancer) just received a major external endorsement via Roche.
- The pipeline is concentrated but potentially transformative, with two Phase 3 trials and a Pfizer collaboration expanding its combinatorial reach.
- The balance sheet is now heavy with cash after the November offering, buying time to run those trials properly.
- The stock trades below its recent high but far above early-year levels, with Wall Street modeling additional upside and quant models preaching caution.
For investors following OLMA, the next big inflection points are likely to be:
- Deeper clinical updates from OPERA-01 and OPERA-02 and related combination trials.
- Any early data or design clarity on the palazestrant–atirmociclib collaboration with Pfizer.
- The market’s reaction as biotech sentiment ebbs and flows around those catalysts.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.wallstreetzen.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. www.gurufocus.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. public.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. olema.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. investingnews.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. longbridge.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. longbridge.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.stocktitan.net, 26. public.com, 27. danelfin.com, 28. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 29. seekingalpha.com, 30. www.investors.com, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. www.wallstreetzen.com
