NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 6:44 a.m. ET — Market closed
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: OLMA) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with investors trying to separate two very different realities: an explosive year-to-date run that put the breast-cancer biotech firmly on the growth-stock map—and a sharp late-December pullback that has reset near-term expectations.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend and set to reopen Monday, December 29, traders will be watching whether OLMA can stabilize after Friday’s decline and whether fresh headlines (or filings) emerge that could shift sentiment in either direction.
Where OLMA stands heading into Monday
Olema shares last closed at $26.23 on Friday, Dec. 26, down 4.44% on the day, after trading between $26.10 and $27.66. Volume was 785,664 shares, below the heavier turnover seen during the mid-December slide. [1]
The bigger story is the recent reversal from the month’s highs: OLMA traded as high as $36.26 in mid-December and has since fallen roughly 28% from that peak area. [2]
Even after that drop, the stock remains a standout on a longer lens. Yahoo Finance data shows OLMA’s year-to-date return around +350% as of the latest available figures—an eye-catching rally that can amplify both profit-taking and volatility into year-end. [3]
News check: what’s changed in the last 24–48 hours?
A scan of Olema’s latest available corporate news and filings directories shows no newly dated company press releases in the last 48 hours. The most recent items visible on the company’s news list and SEC-filings list are dated earlier in December. [4]
So, for this weekend, price action is largely being driven by positioning, liquidity, and “what investors already know”—especially the wave of insider transactions disclosed last week and the market’s ongoing re-pricing after the stock’s steep run-up.
Insider selling: two key Form 4 disclosures investors are digesting
Two insider filings in particular have drawn attention because they involve large, same-day sequences of option exercises and share sales—a pattern often associated with tax planning or liquidity management after equity awards vest.
1) Director Ian T. Clark (Form 4, signed Dec. 23; transaction date Dec. 19)
A Form 4 shows Clark acquiring shares through multiple option exercises (transactions marked “M”), followed by sales (marked “S”) totaling 264,800 shares, disclosed across several sale lines with weighted average prices around $28.83, $29.71, and $30.48. [5]
2) Chief Medical Officer Naseem Zojwalla (Form 4, signed Dec. 23; transaction dates Dec. 19–Dec. 23)
Zojwalla’s Form 4 details multiple option exercises and sales totaling 269,509 shares across Dec. 19, Dec. 22, and Dec. 23, with weighted average sale prices shown around $28.03, $28.93, $28.04, and $27.66 (with price ranges disclosed in the footnotes). [6]
Important nuance: insider sales can mean many things (from routine diversification to tax obligations), but in small-to-mid-cap biotech—where sentiment is often catalyst-driven—large disclosed sales can still weigh on short-term momentum, especially when the stock has recently surged.
The fundamental narrative: palazestrant, Phase 3 trials, and the 2026 catalyst map
Olema’s valuation debate still centers on palazestrant (OP-1250), which the company describes as an orally available complete estrogen receptor antagonist and selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD), being evaluated in two Phase 3 trials (OPERA-01 and OPERA-02). [7]
In its third-quarter update, Olema highlighted several pipeline and development points that remain the core medium-term drivers for OLMA stock, including:
- OPERA-02 Phase 3 initiation: palazestrant in combination with ribociclib in frontline ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer. [8]
- OPERA-01 Phase 3 enrollment progress and the company’s timeline expectations: Olema said it remained on track to report top-line data in the second half of 2026. [9]
- FDA Fast Track designation for palazestrant in a specific metastatic breast cancer setting, as outlined by the company. [10]
- Expansion beyond a single drug: Olema is also developing OP-3136, a KAT6 inhibitor, in Phase 1, with the company pointing to initial clinical results in mid-2026. [11]
Olema CEO Sean P. Bohen framed the company’s posture around clinical progress and upcoming milestones, pointing investors toward the Phase 3 program and the broader pipeline ambitions. [12]
For investors who prefer a source outside earnings decks, the ClinicalTrials.gov listing for OPERA-01 provides additional context on study timing (including an estimated primary completion date in 2026), which helps explain why many Wall Street models treat 2026 as the key inflection year. [13]
Balance sheet watch: cash plus a recent equity raise
Clinical-stage oncology programs are expensive, and “cash runway” is often the hidden heartbeat behind biotech stock moves.
Olema reported $329.0 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of Sept. 30, 2025. [14]
After that quarter-end, the company also announced the closing of a public offering that it said brought in approximately $218.5 million in gross proceeds (including the underwriters’ option being fully exercised). [15]
Taken together, those datapoints are a major reason many investors view near-term financing risk as lower than it would be for a typical late-stage biotech—though future trial expansion, partnership terms, and market conditions always matter.
Analyst forecasts: price targets still point higher, but dispersion is wide
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on Olema, at least based on publicly aggregated ratings and target data.
- MarketBeat’s analyst aggregation shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target price around $40.50 (implying roughly 54% upside from Friday’s $26.23 close). It also cites specific firm actions, including HC Wainwright maintaining a Buy rating with a $45 target and Oppenheimer lifting its target to $48, among others. [16]
- A Nasdaq-hosted item referencing Fintel data reported the average one-year price target revised to $46.54, with targets ranging from $38.38 to $63.00. [17]
That range matters. In practical terms, it says analysts broadly see upside—but disagree on what probability to assign to best-case outcomes versus the usual biotech risks (trial readouts, competitive landscape, safety/tolerability, and timelines).
What investors should know before the next session opens
Because markets are closed right now, the actionable question becomes: what could realistically move OLMA at the open on Monday?
1) Headline sensitivity is high, even when “nothing is scheduled.”
With no new company release in the past 48 hours, any fresh update—trial enrollment notes, conference commentary, partnership details, or additional filings—can have an outsized impact in thin year-end liquidity. [18]
2) Watch whether the pullback pauses—or accelerates—near recent lows.
Friday’s close ($26.23) sits well below the mid-December high zone and near the lower end of the late-December range. If early Monday trading breaks below recent lows, momentum-driven selling can feed on itself; if it holds, “dip buyers” may attempt to rebuild positions into year-end. [19]
3) Insider filings will stay on traders’ radar.
The market has already seen large exercise-and-sell patterns from both a director and the CMO. Even if those transactions are routine, many short-term traders treat continued insider sale disclosures as a sentiment headwind until price action proves otherwise. [20]
4) The real fundamental catalysts skew to 2026—so near-term moves may be flow-driven.
Olema has pointed investors to OPERA-01 top-line data in the second half of 2026 and OP-3136 initial clinical results in mid-2026. That means the near-term tape can be dominated by sector risk appetite and positioning, while longer-horizon investors focus on execution toward those milestones. [21]
Bottom line
Olema Pharmaceuticals enters Monday’s session with a stock chart that looks like a classic biotech story arc: a massive year-to-date surge, a sharp pullback, visible insider selling disclosures, and a pipeline narrative that lives or dies on clinical execution. With Wall Street targets still well above the latest close—but spread widely—OLMA’s next move may hinge less on weekend headlines and more on whether buyers step back in when markets reopen.
For now, the weekend’s message is simple: the market is closed, but the story isn’t—and Monday’s first hour could set the tone for how OLMA trades into year-end. [22]
References
1. ir.olema.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. ir.olema.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. clinicaltrials.gov, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. ir.olema.com, 19. ir.olema.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. ir.olema.com
