NEW YORK, March 20, 2026, 11:17 ET.
- Ondas shares slid 56 cents to $10.19 late in the morning, after the company’s updated filing flipped its fourth-quarter outlook from a loss to a profit.
- Revenue outlook was unchanged, but results got a lift from a $102 million gain stemming from the revaluation of warrant liabilities.
- Final results land March 25. Ondas, just this week, unveiled an INDO acquisition, said it’s teaming up with Heidelberg on drone defense, and confirmed it’s taking part in Unusual Machines’ stock sale.
Ondas Inc. dropped roughly 5% Friday, with shares slipping 56 cents to $10.19 in New York. The defense-drone and private wireless firm changed its preliminary 2025 results, now projecting a fourth-quarter profit after booking an accounting gain related to warrants.
The timing of the filing is key, coming just five days ahead of Ondas’ scheduled release of its fourth-quarter and full-year results on March 25. This follows a hectic stretch: acquisitions, new partnerships, and capital moves crowded the company’s week. Investors now face the challenge of parsing rapid revenue gains from one-off accounting impacts, and isolating true business performance from the flurry of deal activity.
Ondas attributed the revision to an updated fair-value estimate of its warrant liability by management. The change is expected to produce a net gain of roughly $102 million for both the quarter and the year. Warrants, which let holders purchase shares down the line, can swing reported profits significantly—sometimes with little or no change to revenue.
Ondas left revenue projections unchanged from its March 9 preliminary update, sticking with a fourth-quarter range of $29.1 million to $30.1 million—far above last year’s $4.1 million. But the company has flipped its net results: management now anticipates net income in the $82.9 million to $83.4 million zone, a stark reversal from the net loss of $20.9 million to $20.4 million disclosed earlier this month.
Ondas is projecting full-year revenue between $49.7 million and $50.7 million, a jump from 2024’s $7.2 million. Net income looks set to land in the $50.4 million to $50.9 million range. Adjusted EBITDA remains in negative territory, with the company sticking to its estimate of a loss between $31.5 million and $31.0 million for 2025.
Ondas stuck with its $170 million to $180 million revenue target for 2026. As of Dec. 31, cash on hand stood at about $551 million, and the company raised another $1 billion on Jan. 12. On Friday, Unusual Machines disclosed that Ondas joined as a strategic investor in its $150 million stock offering.
The expansion drive this week has been unmistakable. Ondas on Tuesday announced it’s acquiring INDO Earth Moving, citing a $140 million military engineering-vehicle tender that should start bringing in revenue as early as the second quarter. CEO Eric Brock called the deal a source of “immediate revenue production,” pointing to new robotics synergies as well. Ondas Inc.
Just one day after the announcement, Ondas and Heidelberg revealed plans for a German joint venture targeting the roll-out of autonomous drone-defense systems, initially in Germany and Ukraine. “Europe faces an urgent need,” Brock warned, pointing to risks for both infrastructure and military locations from drone attacks. Ondas Inc.
Ondas now finds itself jostling among a throng of defense-drone players. AeroVironment announced a roughly $200 million deal for ESAero earlier this week, while Red Cat posted its highest-ever quarterly revenue on March 18. Unusual Machines just secured new equity funding on Friday—another signal that capital keeps chasing unmanned and counter-drone businesses.
But here’s the hitch: most of the fresh profit comes from warrant revaluation, not a bump in sales. Ondas remains in the red on adjusted EBITDA, still working through a series of acquisitions.
Fresh selling pressure may hit the shares from recent stock issuance. In a March 18 prospectus, 3.36 million Ondas shares tied to the Bird acquisition were registered for potential resale by existing holders. Ondas won’t see any proceeds from these resales, according to the filing, which also spells out daily sale limits for the holders.
March 25 is the date to watch. Ondas plans to publish its final results ahead of the call, along with outlook details for INDO. That update could show investors just how much of the company’s recent acquisition spree is actually making its way into revenue and margins.
