WEST PALM BEACH, August 15, 2026, 04:58 EDT — U.S. markets remain shut for the weekend.
- Ondas raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $525 million and $550 million.
- To reach the midpoint, about $404 million in revenue is needed in the second half.
- The adjusted EBITDA loss increased to $50.6 million for the second quarter.
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS closed Friday at $9.24, rising 3.7%, as investors balanced record quarterly results against challenging execution targets. The autonomous-systems firm requires approximately $404 million in revenue for the second half to meet the midpoint of its updated annual guidance.
This is the main question for investors. Revenue for the first half reached $133.9 million, with the updated full-year guidance set between $525 million and $550 million. Meeting even the lower end would mean second-half sales nearly triple those of the first half.
The backlog provides some support, though it does not guarantee outcomes. Ondas disclosed a pro forma backlog of $757 million, factoring in DZYNE Technologies and Cyberhawk. This represents 1.41 times the 2026 guidance midpoint.
| Operating comparison | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.3 million | $50.1 million | $83.8 million |
| GAAP gross profit | $3.3 million | $24.7 million | $36.1 million |
| GAAP gross margin | 53.1% | 49.2% | 43.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ($5.8 million) | ($10.9 million) | ($50.6 million) |
Revenue increased 67% from the previous quarter and surged over thirteen times compared to the same period last year. On a same-portfolio pro forma basis, management reported 85% organic growth. However, GAAP gross margin declined by 6.1 percentage points from the first quarter.
The next challenge is greater. Ondas projected third-quarter revenue between $140 million and $155 million. Based on the midpoint of that range, the company would require approximately $256 million in fourth-quarter revenue to reach the annual midpoint target.
| Revenue bridge | Low case | Midpoint | High case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 guidance | $525.0 million | $537.5 million | $550.0 million |
| Minus first-half results | $133.9 million | $133.9 million | $133.9 million |
| Second-half revenue needed | $391.1 million | $403.6 million | $416.1 million |
| Q4 implied using Q3 midpoint | $243.6 million | $256.1 million | $268.6 million |
| Backlog versus annual guidance | 1.44x | 1.41x | 1.38x |
Expenses are increasing ahead of the deliveries. Adjusted cash operating costs climbed to $93.2 million, compared with $36.9 million in the previous quarter. Outlays related to WarpSpeed, Skyweaver and Palantir market development amounted to $26.2 million.
Chief Executive Eric Brock stated, “We expect to sustain this momentum and deliver another significant revenue ramp during the second half of 2026.” Ondas projects that it will achieve operating-platform adjusted EBITDA profitability in the fourth quarter. The company continues to aim for overall profitability in the fourth quarter of 2027. Company statement
The balance sheet offers flexibility. As of June 30, Ondas reported holding approximately $1.4 billion in cash, restricted cash, and short-term investments. Around $325 million was then spent to finalize the purchases of DZYNE and Cyberhawk, resulting in a balance of about $1.08 billion ahead of further third-quarter cash activity.
The rebound on Friday came after the U.S. introduced new tariffs targeting imported drones and their components. The measure boosted several U.S. drone stocks, such as AeroVironment Inc. NASDAQ:AVAV, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. NASDAQ:KTOS, Red Cat Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:RCAT, and Ondas.
| Trading comparison | Close | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug. 12 | $9.77 | +0.3% | 86.7 million |
| Thursday, Aug. 13 | $8.91 | -8.8% | 125.2 million |
| Friday, Aug. 14 | $9.24 | +3.7% | 96.5 million |
| Three-month average | — | — | 88.1 million |
Trading volume reached 125.2 million shares on Thursday, 42% higher than the three-month average. Friday’s advance recouped a portion of the losses from the earnings day. Over the week, ONDS rose roughly 1.4%.
While analysts maintain a positive outlook, the published targets were set prior to this week’s results. As a result, updated estimate revisions provide more relevant insight than the present headline consensus.
| Analyst | Recommendation | Target | Upside vs. $9.24 | Displayed date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amit Dayal, H.C. Wainwright | Buy | $25 | 171% | July 7 |
| Austin Bohlig, Needham | Buy | $19 | 106% | July 7 |
| Michael Latimore, Northland | Buy | $18 | 95% | July 7 |
| Max Michaelis, Lake Street | Buy | $19 | 106% | July 6 |
| Timothy Horan, Oppenheimer | Buy | $16 | 73% | May 28 |
| Matthew Galinko, Maxim | Buy | $22 | 138% | May 18 |
| Jonathan Siegmann, Stifel | Buy | $18 | 95% | May 15 |
In the coming week, investors are advised to look out for revisions to estimates following earnings, updates on orders, and information regarding acquisition integration. Confirmation that the $757 million backlog is progressing as planned would bolster expectations for a ramp-up. Delays could increase pressure for a stronger performance in the fourth quarter.
Risks: The timing of backlog can fluctuate, acquisitions involve integration expenses, and product mix could weigh on margins. Defense procurement remains inconsistent. The impact of tariffs may be less significant than the sector’s move on Friday suggests.
Related articles: NASDAQ:ONDS
