Oracle Earnings Today: Q2 FY26 Preview, AI Cloud Bets, Debt Risks and a Look Back at Last Results

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) will take center stage on Wall Street today, 10 December 2025, as it reports fiscal second‑quarter 2026 earnings after the market close. The numbers themselves are expected to show solid double‑digit growth — but the real story is whether Oracle can convince investors that its massive, AI‑driven cloud gamble and debt‑funded data‑center buildout are sustainable.

Below is a detailed look at what analysts expect from Oracle’s Q2 earnings today, how the company performed last quarter and in the same period a year ago, and the key themes likely to dominate tonight’s call.

When Will Oracle Report Earnings Today?

Oracle has confirmed that Q2 FY26 results will be released after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, with a live earnings webcast scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Central Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern) on its investor relations website. ^[1]

Financial calendars list the quarter as Q2 FY2026, covering the three months ended 30 November 2025, with the release categorized as an “after market close” event. ^[2]

Wall Street Forecast: What to Expect from Oracle’s Q2 FY26

Despite recent volatility in ORCL stock, Wall Street is looking for strong headline growth in today’s Oracle earnings report.

Across multiple analyst and data-provider estimates, expectations cluster around the following:

Revenue:
Consensus: roughly $16.1–$16.2 billion
This implies around 14–16% year‑over‑year growth compared with about $14.1 billion in Q2 FY25. ^[3]
Adjusted (non‑GAAP) EPS:
Consensus: about $1.63–$1.65 per share
That would represent roughly 10–12% EPS growth vs. non‑GAAP EPS of $1.47 in the prior‑year quarter. ^[4]
Cloud & OCI growth:
- Some previews, including research summarized by CRN and Bernstein, suggest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue could grow 67–75% year‑on‑year this quarter — a sharp acceleration from the 55% growth Oracle reported last quarter. ^[5]
- Reuters notes that Oracle itself has projected a roughly 71% surge in cloud infrastructure revenue and overall revenue growth of just over 15% for the September–November period. ^[6]
- Analysts also expect total cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) to remain the primary growth engine. ^[7]

In short, the base case heading into today’s Oracle earnings release is:

Mid‑teens revenue growth, low‑teens EPS growth, and another very strong quarter for AI‑driven cloud infrastructure.

But those numbers are only the starting point. Investors are laser‑focused on the quality of that growth, the concentration of Oracle’s AI backlog, and how much debt and capex it takes to support it.

A Quick Look Back: Oracle’s Most Recent Results (Q1 FY26)

Oracle last reported earnings on 9 September 2025, when it released fiscal Q1 2026 results that ignited massive debate — and, initially, massive enthusiasm — about its AI future. ^[8]

Key Q1 FY26 metrics:

Total revenue:
- $14.9 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year in U.S. dollars and 11% in constant currency.
Total cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS):
- About $7.2 billion, growing 28% year‑on‑year.
Cloud Infrastructure (OCI):
- Around $3.3 billion, up 55% year‑on‑year.
Cloud Applications (SaaS):
- Roughly $3.8 billion, up about 11%.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO):
- Exploded to $455 billion, up 359% vs. a year earlier, driven by several multi‑billion‑dollar AI and cloud contracts.
Profitability:
- GAAP EPS: $1.01 (down about 2% year‑over‑year).
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.47 (up about 6% year‑over‑year). ^[9]

Oracle highlighted that it had signed four multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with three customers in Q1, which helped fuel that extraordinary jump in RPO. Management also laid out an aggressive long‑term plan for OCI revenue: targeting roughly $18 billion in OCI revenue this fiscal year and steep increases over the following four years, much of which they said is already embedded in the RPO figure. ^[10]

This “AI super‑cycle plus giant backlog” narrative pushed Oracle shares to record highs in September — and set a very high bar for what investors expect to hear on tonight’s call.

The Baseline: What Oracle Delivered in Q2 FY25

To understand what “beat” or “miss” might look like tonight, it helps to look at the same quarter last year.

In Q2 FY25, reported in December 2024, Oracle posted: ^[11]

Total revenue: about $14.1 billion, up 9% year‑over‑year.
Total cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS): around $5.9 billion, up 24%.
- Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS): ~$2.4 billion, up 52%.
- Cloud Applications (SaaS): ~$3.5 billion, up 10%.
RPO: roughly $97–97.3 billion, up around 50% in constant currency, with cloud RPO nearly 80% higher and representing about three‑quarters of total RPO. ^[12]
Earnings:
- GAAP EPS: $1.10, up roughly 24% year‑over‑year.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.47, up about 10% year‑over‑year. ^[13]

If Q2 FY26 revenue indeed lands near $16.2 billion with EPS around $1.64–$1.65, as consensus suggests, Oracle would be delivering materially faster growth than a year ago, particularly in AI‑driven infrastructure — but from a much more demanding starting valuation and with far more scrutiny on the balance sheet.

AI Cloud and the OpenAI Mega‑Deal: Oracle’s Biggest Opportunity and Biggest Risk

Almost every piece of research published in the run‑up to today’s Oracle earnings release shares the same headline theme: AI, AI, and more AI.

A $300 Billion OpenAI Contract and a $400+ Billion Backlog

According to Reuters and other outlets, a huge chunk of Oracle’s ballooning backlog — now over $400 billion and expected to grow further — is tied to AI workloads, notably a multi‑year contract with OpenAI that has been widely reported around the $300 billion mark. ^[14]

Oracle has also touted major AI partnerships with Meta and other large model providers, plus rapidly expanding multi‑cloud relationships with Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services for running Oracle databases and AI workloads. ^[15]

This AI-centric strategy has transformed the company:

Cloud services now account for a large majority of revenue, with AI‑related consumption (GPU usage, training and inference workloads) growing triple‑digit percentages in recent periods. ^[16]
Oracle positions its infrastructure as high‑performance and lower‑cost for training large language models, backed by modular data‑center builds and dense GPU superclusters. ^[17]

Investors Now Ask: Is the AI Pipeline Real — and Profitable?

The mood ahead of today’s earnings, however, is far more cautious than it was after the Q1 blowout:

Reuters reports that Oracle’s credit default swaps have climbed to record highs, reflecting increased concern in credit markets, even as the AI backlog swelled. ^[18]
Barron’s notes that investors want clarity on whether Oracle can grow its backlog without relying so heavily on a single, outsized OpenAI deal, and whether the economics of AI infrastructure can support healthy margins. ^[19]
CRN, summarizing Bernstein and KeyBanc analysis, says backlog is likely to rise again in Q2, with one estimate placing RPO above $520 billion, but that the street wants more detail on the quality of that pipeline: how diversified it is, how non‑cancelable the contracts are, and what protections Oracle has if AI demand slows or customers struggle to pay. ^[20]

For tonight’s call, that means investors will care less about a new “headline backlog record” and more about:

Mix of OpenAI vs. other customers (Meta, xAI, enterprises, governments). ^[21]
The margin profile of AI workloads (Oracle has suggested AI gross margins around 35%, lower than its traditional software margins but higher than many feared). ^[22]
How quickly AI contracts move from RPO into recognized revenue and cash.

Debt, Capex and Free Cash Flow: The Other Big Story in Oracle Earnings Today

The other side of Oracle’s AI ambition is the bill.

A Hefty Debt Load and a Credit Downgrade

Recent coverage from Barron’s and others highlights that: ^[23]

Oracle has taken on around $18 billion in new bonds this year to finance its AI data‑center expansion.
That has pushed total debt to roughly $100–105 billion, leading to a credit rating of BBB with a negative outlook at some agencies.
Over the past twelve months, free cash flow has turned negative (around –$5.9 billion) as capex has surged faster than cash generation.

At the same time, Oracle still pays a healthy dividend and has historically been shareholder‑friendly on buybacks — another draw on cash that investors are now scrutinizing.

Capex: Could Free Cash Flow Stay Negative for Years?

Ahead of Q2 FY26, some analysts expect Oracle’s capital expenditures to more than double:

KeyBanc’s models, cited by CRN, point to about $8 billion in capex just in Q2 and more than $36 billion for the full FY26, well ahead of earlier Wall Street expectations. ^[24]
The same research warns that free cash flow could remain negative into fiscal 2029 if Oracle keeps spending at that pace to meet AI data‑center demand. ^[25]

Oracle’s response is that its data‑center strategy, heavily reliant on leased facilities and delayed ownership of server hardware, helps limit upfront capex and gives flexibility if customer plans change. Still, investors are likely to press for:

More detail on lease commitments, off‑balance‑sheet obligations and termination options. ^[26]
A clearer roadmap on when capex peaks and free cash flow turns sustainably positive.

Tonight’s Oracle earnings commentary on capex and cash flow may matter as much as the EPS number.

New Co‑CEOs on Tonight’s Call

This Q2 FY26 Oracle earnings call is also notable for who will be speaking.

In September 2025, Oracle promoted Clay Magouyrk (longtime head of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) and Mike Sicilia (who led industry applications and Oracle Health) to co‑CEOs, while former CEO Safra Catz moved to the role of executive vice chair of the board. ^[27]
Catz, CEO since 2014 and a key architect of Oracle’s M&A and AI push, is expected to remain influential, but this is the first full fiscal year where Magouyrk and Sicilia are front and center on the quarterly calls, as CRN notes. ^[28]

Investors will be watching for:

How the co‑CEO duo divides responsibilities on the call (Magouyrk typically focusing on infrastructure, Sicilia on applications and industries). ^[29]
Whether guidance and long‑term messaging still carry the same tone Safra Catz used — especially on cost discipline, debt and shareholder returns.

How Oracle Stock Is Positioned Before Earnings

The stakes are high partly because ORCL has already been on a rollercoaster this year.

After Q1 FY26 and the AI backlog headlines, Oracle shares surged to record highs in mid‑September 2025, delivering massive gains for early‑year buyers. ^[30]
Since then, the stock has fallen roughly 35–45% from its peak, depending on the source and exact dates:
- Reuters says the stock has given back all of the 36% jump sparked by the backlog announcement. ^[31]
- 24/7 Wall St calculates a 46% drawdown from about $345 in September to the high‑$180s a couple of months later, noting a 37% loss for investors who bought near the top. ^[32]
- Other coverage pegs the slide in the mid‑30% range from the highs but notes the stock is still up strongly (around 30%+) year‑to‑date. ^[33]

Despite the sell‑off, Oracle still trades at premium valuation multiples relative to many traditional software and infrastructure peers, with some research highlighting a price‑to‑sales ratio around 8x vs. a sector median near 3–4x. ^[34]

Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive:

IBD reports that roughly 72% of covering analysts rate the stock a “buy” heading into Q2 earnings, with the rest mostly at “hold.” ^[35]
Some, including a Wells Fargo analyst recently cited in Barron’s, argue that Oracle could grow its share of the global cloud infrastructure market from ~5% today to mid‑teens by 2029, if the AI thesis plays out. ^[36]

That combination — high expectations, premium valuation, and a sharp recent correction — sets the stage for a potentially explosive reaction to tonight’s Oracle earnings report.

What Options and Traders Are Pricing In

Options markets are bracing for a big move after the Q2 FY26 print:

TipRanks’ options analytics show traders pricing in about a 10.8% move in either direction following earnings. ^[37]
Investopedia similarly notes that options pricing implies nearly a 10% swing up or down by the end of the week, which could send the stock either to fresh highs above the low‑$240s or back toward the high‑$190s range. ^[38]

In other words, the options market is essentially saying: “Big move coming — but no clear consensus yet on which way.”

Five Metrics to Watch in Oracle’s Q2 FY26 Earnings Today

For investors, traders and anyone following Oracle earnings in real time, here are five key areas to watch when the company releases numbers and hosts its call:

1. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Revenue and Growth Rate

Does OCI growth accelerate toward the 67–75% year‑over‑year range some analysts are modeling, or does it stay closer to last quarter’s 55%? ^[39]
Is AI training still the main driver, or does Oracle highlight stronger inference and more diversified workloads?

2. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) and Backlog Quality

Does RPO climb meaningfully beyond Q1’s $455 billion, and does Oracle break out how much of that is AI‑related? ^[40]
Do management and analysts dig into:
- The share tied to OpenAI vs. other hyperscalers and model providers,
- Contract terms (non‑cancelable periods, tranches, duration), and
- How quickly Oracle expects to convert RPO into recognized revenue and cash.

3. Margins, Capex and Free Cash Flow

Watch gross margin and operating margin, especially in cloud infrastructure. Barron’s has flagged falling adjusted operating margins as a major concern. ^[41]
Expect questions on:
- Capex this quarter (KeyBanc’s ~$8B estimate),
- The full‑year capex path (~$36B+), and
- When Oracle expects free cash flow to consistently turn positive again. ^[42]

4. Customer Concentration and New AI Deals

Analysts and solution providers (per CRN’s preview) want to know whether growth is broadening beyond OpenAI, and which other AI customers — such as Meta or emerging “neo‑clouds” — are signing significant capacity deals. ^[43]
Look for any new multi‑billion‑dollar contracts announced on the call, plus commentary on potential competition from specialized AI clouds that could also become Oracle customers if it has spare capacity. ^[44]

5. Guidance for the Second Half of FY26 and Beyond

Oracle’s Q1 commentary projected very rapid OCI growth over the next several years, with revenue targets ramping aggressively through 2030. ^[45]
Tonight, investors will look for:
- Updated guidance on full‑year FY26 revenue and EPS,
- Any changes to OCI multi‑year revenue targets, and
- Management’s view on whether AI demand is still accelerating or starting to normalize.

Even if Q2 numbers merely “meet” expectations, guidance and tone could swing the stock sharply.

Why Today’s Oracle Earnings Matter Beyond ORCL

Because Oracle has become one of the most visible “picks‑and‑shovels” providers to AI giants like OpenAI and Meta, its Q2 FY26 earnings today are also a referendum on the broader AI infrastructure boom.

A strong print with confident commentary on backlog, margins and capex discipline could re‑energize sentimentnot only in ORCL but across AI‑linked infrastructure and software names. ^[46]
A miss on OCI growth, a weaker backlog update, or worrisome cash‑flow guidance could intensify worries about an AI bubble and over‑building, something both Reuters and multiple analysis pieces say is already weighing on the stock. ^[47]

For now, the setup is clear: Oracle earnings today are expected to deliver strong growth — but the market is demanding proof that this AI‑driven expansion can be financed and monetized sustainably.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.