NEW YORK, July 3, 2026, 17:01 EDT
- U.S. stocks did not trade Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Oracle Corporation NYSE:ORCL last finished at $140.27 on July 2.
- Oracle dropped 5.6% during the holiday-shortened week and is down 23.9% over its last nine sessions, based on closing prices.
- Oracle said remaining performance obligations totaled $638 billion, about 1.6 times its current market cap. The company could spend up to $95 billion on capex in fiscal 2027.
- FactSet figures cited by WSJ had 38 out of 45 analysts rating the stock at Buy or Overweight, with an average price target of $254.84. That’s almost 82% higher than the last close.
U.S. equity trading was closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, giving Oracle (ORCL) a break after it finished Thursday at $140.27, down 1.56%. Volume hit 44.27 million shares, about 1.56 times the 65-day average. Shares sit just 4.2% above the 52-week low of $134.57.
Oracle’s AI cloud push is hitting a timing issue. The company’s backlog is now bigger than its equity value, but the bills for data centers are showing up before the revenue does. Oracle ended May with $638 billion in remaining performance obligations. That’s more than its market cap, which was $408.5 billion on the latest market data.
| Oracle tape | Latest figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| July 2 close | $140.27 | Down nine days in a row |
| Holiday-week move | -5.6% | Came from $148.53 on June 26 |
| Nine-session move | -23.9% | Down from $184.29 since June 18 |
| July 2 volume | 44.27 mln | Traded 1.56 times the 65-day average |
| 52-week position | 4.2% above low | Still 59.4% off the high |
The rest of the market went a different direction. The Dow set a fresh record close on Thursday, while the S&P 500 finished unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8%. On the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.8%, the Dow added 2.0% and the Nasdaq was up 2.1%.
| Market read-through | Thursday | Week |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle | dropped 1.6% | fell 5.6% this week |
| S&P 500 | ended flat | up 1.8% on the week |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | gained 1.1% | added 2.0% this week |
| Nasdaq Composite | slipped 0.8% | rose 2.1% on the week |
Why it matters: Oracle is being watched as a test of how much the market will fund. For fiscal 2026, Oracle brought in $32.0 billion in operating cash flow, but had negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion. It pulled in $43 billion in debt and another $5 billion from equity. Oracle plans to raise around $40 billion more via debt and equity in fiscal 2027, including a $20 billion at-the-market equity deal it had already announced. The company said it does not plan to issue more debt in calendar 2026.
Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk told analysts delivery is “continuing to accelerate.” CFO Hilary Maxson said gross margins will “step down” as the company ramps up data center projects. Jacob Bourne, analyst at eMarketer, said the “funding question is getting harder, not easier.” Reuters
| Backlog vs build-out | Figure | Why investors care |
|---|---|---|
| Remaining performance obligations | $638 bln | That’s around 1.56x its market cap |
| RPO expected in next 12 months | $76.56 bln | Lower than the full FY2027 capex target |
| FY2027 capex plan | Up to $95 bln | Oracle putting up $70 bln, with $20 bln-$25 bln planned to be repaid |
| FY2026 free cash flow | -$23.7 bln | Burn rate is still the key concern |
| FY2027 financing plan | About $40 bln | Mix of debt and equity remains |
Analysts haven’t kept up with the stock’s drop. FactSet counted 31 Buys, 7 Overweights, 6 Holds and just 1 Sell. The average price target landed at $254.84, with a $243 median and a $400 high. Barron’s noted Mizuho’s Siti Panigrahi holds a $320 target, while KeyBanc is at $300, even as Oracle trades through its longest losing streak since 2021.
| Analyst side | Current |
|---|---|
| Buy or Overweight | 38 out of 45 |
| Bullish calls | 84.4% |
| Hold | 6 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Average price target | $254.84 |
| Implied gain at $140.27 | 81.7% |
| Highest / lowest target | $400 / $155 |
Oracle faces a basic challenge to start the week: end a nine-day losing streak when U.S. markets reopen after the holiday. Nasdaq’s 2026 schedule marks July 3 closed for Independence Day observed, same as NYSE’s calendar.
Oracle’s board has declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend. The payout is set for July 24, to shareholders of record as of the close on July 10.
