Oracle (ORCL) Stock Today: AI Cloud Boom Meets Debt Jitters Ahead of Q2 FY26 Earnings

As of December 10, 2025, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) sits at the center of Wall Street’s AI debate, with a soaring cloud backlog, heavy debt, and a make‑or‑break earnings report due after the bell.

Key takeaways

Oracle stock price today: ORCL trades around $221–$222 per share, giving the company a market cap of roughly $630+ billion. That’s up nearly 20% over the past year but still about 36–37% below its September all‑time high near $346. ^[1]
Earnings tonight (Q2 FY26): Wall Street expects revenue of about $16.1–$16.2 billion (≈15% YoY growth) and non‑GAAP EPS of $1.63–$1.65, up about 10–12% year over year. ^[2]
AI cloud is the growth engine: Oracle’s cloud infrastructure (OCI) business is projected to grow revenue by around 70% YoY this quarter, after rising 55% last quarter, driven by huge AI workloads from customers like OpenAI and Meta. ^[3]
But the balance sheet is flashing yellow: A $455 billion+ AI‑driven backlog, a multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar deal with OpenAI, rising capital expenditure (≈$35B this year), and plans for tens of billions in new debt have pushed free cash flow negative and widened Oracle’s credit spreads to their highest since 2009. ^[4]
Analysts mostly bullish, but divided: Across major trackers, most of the 40–50 analysts covering ORCL rate it Buy or Strong Buy, with average 12‑month price targets around $330–$345—roughly 45–55% above today’s price. Still, firms like RBC remain cautious with a Hold/Sector Perform rating and a $310 target amid worries about debt, margins, and customer concentration. ^[5]

Oracle stock price snapshot on December 10, 2025

According to Oracle’s own investor site and multiple market data providers, Oracle closed at $221.53 on December 9, 2025, and is trading in the low-$220s ahead of tonight’s earnings release. ^[6]

At that price, Oracle’s market capitalization is about $631 billion, placing it firmly in mega‑cap territory and among the world’s largest software companies. ^[7]

Yet the recent ride has been anything but smooth:

Oracle’s shares hit a record around $345.72 in September 2025 after a blockbuster Q1 FY26 report that revealed a massive AI cloud backlog. ^[8]
They then collapsed to about $185 in late November, a drawdown of roughly 46% from the peak before rebounding into the $220 range. ^[9]
Despite that volatility, ORCL is still up strongly over multi‑year periods—more than 250% over the past five years, far outpacing the S&P 500. ^[10]

This combination—big AI upside, big drawdowns—is the backdrop for today’s earnings.

Q2 FY26 earnings: what Wall Street expects from Oracle stock today

Oracle will report second‑quarter fiscal 2026 results after the U.S. market close on December 10, 2025, followed by a conference call at 4:00 p.m. Central Time. ^[11]

Across previews from TipRanks, Investopedia, IG and other outlets, expectations are tightly clustered: ^[12]

Revenue:
- Around $16.15–$16.2 billion, up roughly 14–15% year over year from about $14.2 billion in Q2 FY25.
Non‑GAAP EPS:
- $1.63–$1.65, implying 10–12% earnings growth vs. the $1.47 reported a year ago.
Cloud infrastructure (OCI):
- LSEG and Visible Alpha data suggest OCI revenue could grow ~71% YoY this quarter, accelerating from 55% growth in Q1. ^[13]

For context, Q1 FY26 (reported in September) delivered: ^[14]

Total revenue of $14.9 billion, up 12%.
Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) of $7.2 billion, up 28%.
Cloud infrastructure revenue of $3.3 billion, up 55%.
And, crucially, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)—Oracle’s contracted backlog—surged 359% to $455 billion, mainly due to a handful of mega AI infrastructure deals.

Tonight, investors care less about whether Oracle hits $16.1B vs. $16.2B, and more about what those numbers say about AI demand durability, margin trends, and the balance sheet.

The AI cloud boom: OpenAI, mega‑contracts and a $455B+ backlog

Oracle’s transformation from “legacy database giant” to AI cloud infrastructure heavyweight is the core bull story.

Several key points stand out in recent analysis from Oracle, IG, Barchart and 24/7 Wall St: ^[15]

Record backlog: Q1 FY26 RPO hit $455 billion, up 359% year over year, driven by four multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with three major clients.
AI cloud growth:
- Cloud revenue grew 28% in Q1;
- OCI alone grew 55%;
- Prior fiscal results showed Oracle’s cloud services becoming the majority of revenue and GPU consumption revenue soaring triple‑digits as AI training workloads ramped.
Project “Stargate” and OpenAI:
- A multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar deal with OpenAI—widely reported around $300 billion over five years—forms a large chunk of that backlog and underpins plans for a gigantic AI datacenter build‑out. ^[16]
Other hyperscale customers:
- Oracle has also touted big contracts with Meta and other AI‑heavy customers, and Barchart reports that Oracle signed about $65 billion in new infrastructure contracts in Q2 alone (excluding OpenAI) across just a handful of deals. ^[17]

Management has laid out aggressive long‑term goals:

Oracle expects OCI revenue to reach roughly $18 billion in fiscal 2026, then scale to about $144 billion by fiscal 2030, a staggering multi‑year compound growth rate if achieved. ^[18]

This is why many analysts see Oracle as the “third hyperscaler” behind AWS and Azure in AI infrastructure—and why some bulls describe ORCL as a long‑term beneficiary of the generative AI wave.

Debt, cash burn and credit‑market worries

The flip side of that AI backlog story is how Oracle is paying for it.

Across Reuters, Barron’s, IG and RBC’s commentary, three themes keep coming up: ^[19]

Rising leverage and bond issuance
- Oracle has added roughly $18 billion in new debt recently and is reportedly exploring around $38 billion in additional loans to fund AI datacenter projects—especially facilities tied to OpenAI.
- Total debt outstanding is estimated at about $105 billion, and rating agencies have flagged the risk that leverage could exceed 4x debt‑to‑EBITDA later this decade if earnings don’t keep pace. ^[20]
Negative free cash flow and heavy capex
- Oracle’s free cash flow has turned negative since late fiscal 2025, with one Barron’s analysis citing about ‑$5.9 billion in trailing 12‑month FCF as Project Stargate spending ramps. ^[21]
- Capex for fiscal 2026 is projected around $35 billion, up roughly 65% year over year, far above historic norms. ^[22]
Credit‑market signals and downgrade risk
- IG notes that Oracle’s five‑year credit default swap (CDS) spreads have climbed to their highest level since 2009, reflecting increased perceived default risk compared with mega‑cap peers. ^[23]
- Rating agencies still keep Oracle in investment‑grade territory, but with negative outlooks and clear warnings that a downgrade to “junk” is possible if debt keeps climbing faster than cash flow. ^[24]

Reuters sums up the market’s concern succinctly: Oracle is spending heavily—along with other big tech players—on an AI infrastructure boom expected to top $400 billion this year, but much of Oracle’s capex is tied to one unprofitable startup, OpenAI, whose ability to fully honor a multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar contract is uncertain. ^[25]

Analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson told Reuters that if OpenAI’s ambitions fizzled, Oracle would likely have to scale back the build‑out, write down some contracts and work down its debt, though not necessarily default. ^[26]

In other words: huge upside if AI demand plays out, but the financing structure is aggressive.

Leadership shake‑up: new co‑CEOs for the AI era

In September 2025, Oracle restructured its leadership, naming long‑time insiders Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co‑CEOs, while former CEO Safra Catz became Executive Vice Chair of the Board. Larry Ellison remains Executive Chairman and CTO. ^[27]

Magouyrk built Oracle’s cloud infrastructure (OCI) business and is closely associated with its AI datacenter push. ^[28]
Sicilia leads Oracle’s industry‑focused cloud and AI applications. ^[29]

Recent coverage frames this as Ellison doubling down on AI and cloud: co‑CEOs are meant to bridge the infrastructure and application layers and manage an increasingly complex, capital‑intensive business. ^[30]

For investors, the Q2 earnings call will be one of the first big tests of how this new leadership team communicates strategy, risk and capital allocation.

What Wall Street is saying: ratings, targets and valuation

Across major analyst aggregators, Oracle is still mostly a buy‑rated stock—but with a lot more debate than earlier this year.

Consensus ratings and price targets

Different data providers tally slightly different analyst counts, but they all tell a similar story:

StockAnalysis:
- 31 analysts, consensus rating “Buy”;
- Average price target: $334.52, implying about 51% upside from ~$221;
- Targets range from $175 to $400. ^[31]
ValueInvesting.io:
- 51 analysts, overall recommendation “BUY”;
- Average target: $343.56, roughly 56% upside, with a range of $176.89–$420;
- Ratings breakdown: 15 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell. ^[32]
Barchart and other outlets:
- Report ~40 analysts, with 27 Strong Buys, a handful of Holds and one Strong Sell, and an average target around $344–$345, also pointing to ≈58% upside. ^[33]

MarketBeat shows a similar picture, describing Oracle as a “Moderate Buy” with an average target around the low $320s, still ≈45% above recent prices. ^[34]

Key firm‑level calls

Recent notes from big firms highlight how bullish and cautious narratives now coexist:

Barclays – Overweight, target cut to $330 from $400
- Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow remains positive but cut his target to $330, citing AI‑bubble anxiety creating an “all‑or‑nothing” mindset around Oracle shares.
- He argues that current levels offer compelling risk/reward if Oracle can show broad‑based AI demand and address funding worries on the call. ^[35]
Bernstein – Outperform, $364 target
- Bernstein reiterated its Buy/Outperform rating with a $364 target, calling Oracle’s recent slide an “unusual” situation given that the company has announced over $300 billion in incremental business across a few months.
- The firm expects management to directly address capex and free‑cash‑flow questions and views Oracle as the third‑largest hyperscaler, with a structurally attractive position. ^[36]
TD Cowen – Buy, $400 target
- TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and $400 target, arguing that OCI growth and clearer capex plans could reset sentiment once the market sees more detail on financing and contract quality. ^[37]
RBC Capital – Sector Perform (Hold), $310 target
- RBC reiterated a more cautious Sector Perform rating with a $310 target, around 45% above recent prices but below the more bullish houses.
- RBC highlights that Oracle is trading at roughly 28x estimated 2026 earnings, and flags investor skepticism around OCI customer concentration, potential margin compression and added leverage, noting signs of concern in fixed‑income and derivatives markets. ^[38]

Taken together, the message is:

Most analysts still see substantial upside in ORCL over 12 months, but the stock has shifted from “straightforward AI winner” to a more complex high‑beta play on AI + credit risk.

How traders are positioned: options and volatility expectations

Short‑term traders are bracing for a big move after tonight’s numbers.

An options‑focused preview from Investopedia estimates that options pricing implies about a 10% move in either direction by the end of the week—enough to push ORCL to a new high above $240 on a beat, or back down near $199 on a disappointment. ^[39]

The same report notes that Oracle stock has gained roughly one‑third in 2025 year‑to‑date, but remains over 35% below its September record, a sign of just how violently sentiment has swung on AI and debt headlines. ^[40]

Other earnings‑prediction services and social‑media‑driven models show wide dispersion—some even lean toward a downside move after earnings—but the common thread is elevated implied volatility, not consensus on direction. ^[41]

Oracle stock forecast: revenue and EPS through 2026–2027

Beyond the next 24 hours, Wall Street’s fundamental forecasts still assume healthy double‑digit growth.

Based on aggregated estimates from StockAnalysis and ValueInvesting.io: ^[42]

Revenue outlook
- Fiscal 2026 revenue forecast: ≈$68–69 billion, up around 18–20% from roughly $57–58 billion.
- Fiscal 2027 revenue forecast: ≈$85 billion, implying 20–25% further growth.
Earnings outlook
- EPS for the current fiscal year is generally projected around $6–7 per share, up 40–60% versus prior years as cloud mix increases.
- EPS in the following year is expected to grow another 15–20%, toward $7–8 per share.

Those projections assume that:

AI infrastructure demand stays robust,
Oracle converts its massive backlog into revenue on schedule, and
Margins stabilize or improve once early‑stage AI datacenters move from build‑out to monetization.

If any of those assumptions crack—especially if OpenAI‑related demand is weaker than expected—consensus numbers would likely need to come down.

Key risks and what to watch on tonight’s earnings call

Across previews from Reuters, IG, RBC, TipRanks, Daily Upside and others, investors are focused on a similar checklist for December 10: ^[43]

Backlog quality and diversification
- How much of the $455B+ RPO is tied to OpenAI versus other hyperscale and enterprise customers?
- Are there concrete examples of new, non‑OpenAI AI deals that validate Oracle’s broader position?
Backlog conversion into revenue
- Does Oracle provide more granular timelines for converting backlog into recognized revenue, particularly for its largest contracts?
- Any early signs of customers pacing or resizing deployments would be closely scrutinized.
Capex, debt and funding structure
- Updated guidance on fiscal 2026 capex and how much is committed beyond that.
- Details on financing plans: additional bonds vs. bank loans vs. joint ventures or off‑balance‑sheet structures.
- Management’s stance on protecting an investment‑grade credit rating.
AI cloud margins
- Oracle has said AI infrastructure margins may sit around 30–40%, versus 65–80% for software and traditional cloud services. Investors will want to see whether early AI projects are tracking toward those levels or dragging group margins below expectations. ^[44]
Customer concentration and churn risk
- Any metrics on top‑customer contribution (OpenAI, Meta, xAI, etc.) and how quickly the customer base is broadening.
- Commentary on contract terms, minimum commitments and termination rights could be a major swing factor for sentiment.
Guidance for the second half of FY26
- Updated revenue and EPS guidance, especially for OCI and overall cloud.
- Whether management reiterates or refines the long‑term OCI revenue path to ~$144B by 2030. ^[45]
Technical and macro overlay
- With ORCL trading around key support zones highlighted by technical analysts, a big beat could fuel a relief rally toward $240–$250, while a miss could reopen the path back toward the $185 November low. ^[46]
- All of this is playing out on the same day as a high‑stakes Federal Reserve rate decision, which may amplify or mute stock moves across growth and AI names. ^[47]

Bottom line: Oracle stock as an AI‑and‑leverage barometer

As of December 10, 2025, Oracle stock sits at a crossroads:

The bull case:
- Oracle has transformed itself into a genuine AI infrastructure player, with a record $455B backlog, multi‑year contracts with some of the biggest AI names on the planet, and one of the fastest‑growing cloud businesses among megacaps. ^[48]
- Most analysts still expect double‑digit revenue and EPS growth for years and see 40–60% upside in the stock over the next 12 months. ^[49]
The bear case:
- The AI build‑out is being financed with unusually heavy debt and capex, turning free cash flow negative and raising the risk of a credit downgrade if growth slows. ^[50]
- A large portion of Oracle’s AI backlog appears concentrated in a few customers, especially OpenAI, whose own business model and long‑term spending capacity remain unproven. ^[51]
- Valuation is still demanding relative to traditional software peers, even after the pullback, leaving limited room for disappointment. ^[52]

For long‑term investors, Oracle has become a high‑beta, high‑leverage way to bet on AI infrastructure rather than a sleepy database incumbent. Whether that’s attractive depends heavily on risk tolerance, time horizon and view on the AI capex cycle.

Tonight’s Q2 FY26 report is unlikely to settle every debate, but it will provide crucial clues about:

how much of the AI hype is turning into durable, diversified revenue, and
whether Oracle can grow into its balance sheet without sacrificing financial flexibility.