Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) heads into one of its most important trading days of the year with its share price stabilizing in the low $220s and Wall Street laser‑focused on AI cloud growth, debt, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
The company will report fiscal Q2 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, with its earnings call scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Central Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern). [1]
Below is a detailed look at how Oracle stock traded after the bell on December 9 and what investors should have on their radar before markets open on December 10.
1. How Oracle Stock Traded After the Bell on December 9
Price action
- In Tuesday’s regular session, Oracle closed around $221.64, up about 0.5% on the day, with an intraday range of roughly $218 to $223. [2]
- In after‑hours trading, the stock ticked higher to about $223.45, a further gain of roughly 0.9% from the close — putting it around 1.3% above Monday’s finish near $220.54. [3]
- Over the last few weeks, ORCL has bounced off a November low in the mid‑$180s, a level technicians are watching as key support. [4]
Big picture
Despite Tuesday’s modest rebound, Oracle is still about 35–36% below its September intraday high near $345.72, even after a powerful rally earlier in 2025. [5]
Multiple research notes out today and in recent days emphasize two facts:
- The stock rallied more than 30% this year at one point thanks to AI cloud enthusiasm. [6]
- That rally has since unwound sharply as investors reassess AI spending, debt levels, and concentration risk around OpenAI and other hyperscalers. [7]
In other words, Oracle heads into earnings not at euphoric highs, but after what many analysts call a “healthy correction.”
2. Why December 10 Matters: Earnings + the Fed
Tomorrow is not just about Oracle.
Oracle’s Q2 FY26 earnings after the close
Oracle has confirmed it will release Q2 FY26 results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, December 10, followed by a webcast and conference call at 4:00 p.m. Central Time. [8]
Across major data providers, Wall Street’s consensus for the quarter clusters around:
- Adjusted EPS: roughly $1.63–$1.65, up about 11–12% year‑over‑year. [9]
- Revenue: about $16.15–$16.2 billion, implying around 15% year‑over‑year growth. [10]
Estimates vary slightly by source, but the story is consistent: double‑digit growth, driven primarily by Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and cloud applications.
The Federal Reserve backdrop
At the macro level, Wednesday also brings:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to cut interest rates for a third straight meeting, bringing the target range down to roughly 3.5%–3.75%. [11]
- U.S. indices finished mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 slightly lower and the Nasdaq slightly higher as traders positioned for the Fed decision and key tech earnings — Oracle and Broadcom are specifically highlighted as AI‑themed bellwethers in several market wraps. [12]
For AI‑exposed tech names like Oracle, the combination of earnings plus a rate decision could amplify volatility into Thursday’s session.
3. What Options Markets Are Pricing In
Options traders are bracing for a big move in ORCL after earnings:
- An Investopedia analysis of at‑the‑money options suggests traders expect roughly a 10% swing in either direction on the earnings reaction. [13]
- That straddle‑implied move implies a post‑earnings trading range roughly between the high‑$190s and mid‑$240s, based on current spot levels. [14]
TipRanks’ options tool similarly estimates about a 10.9% expected move, reinforcing the idea that Wednesday night’s numbers could reset the stock’s trajectory. [15]
For investors watching the open on December 10, this matters because market‑makers often adjust hedges into earnings, which can influence intraday swings even before results hit.
4. Wall Street’s View After Tuesday’s Close
Ratings and price targets
Recent research published through December 8–9 shows a wide but generally constructive range of views:
- Mizuho
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target: $400 (one of the Street’s highest).
- Notes that Oracle trades at a P/E around 50, with shares down about 34% from their Sept. 10 peak near $345.72 but up over 8% in the past week as sentiment stabilizes. [16]
- Sees concerns about AI data‑center capex and funding as real but believes Oracle can lean on vendor financing and leases rather than pure new debt. [17]
- Jefferies (via Proactive)
- Rating: Buy, price target $400.
- Calls the recent 34% drawdown from the September high a “favorable setup” heading into Q2. [18]
- Expects remaining performance obligations (RPO) to top $520 billion, OCI revenue to grow ~74% year‑over‑year, and operating margins around 42%. [19]
- Flags ~$80 billion in net debt and potential plans to raise up to $38 billion more to fund data centers, warning of near‑term margin pressure as capex is front‑loaded. [20]
- RBC Capital
- TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and others
- Several firms (TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, HSBC) maintain Buy/Outperform ratings with price targets in the mid‑$300s to $400, citing OCI growth, AI infrastructure demand, and potential for sentiment to turn if Oracle proves it can fund expansion without overstretching its balance sheet. [23]
- Zacks / Nasdaq
- Sees ORCL up more than 30% in 2025, but about 36% below its all‑time high around $345. [24]
- Expects Q2 revenue of ~$16.15 billion (+15% YoY) and EPS of $1.63 (+11% YoY), and argues the pullback has reset the forward P/E to ~32× from a peak of 61×, making valuation less extreme though still rich. [25]
- TipRanks consensus
- Across 37 analysts, ORCL carries a “Moderate Buy” rating, with an average price target around $348, implying ~58% upside from recent levels. [26]
Ownership and insider influence
One late‑day TipRanks piece highlights Oracle’s unusually insider‑heavy ownership structure:
- Insiders hold about 40–41% of the stock, with founder Larry Ellison alone controlling roughly 40.6%.
- The rest is mainly held by ETFs, mutual funds, and other institutions like Vanguard and Fidelity. [27]
That level of insider ownership can amplify long‑term alignment, but it also means less free float, which can occasionally intensify price moves around major events.
5. Debt, AI Capex and the “Canary in the Coal Mine” Narrative
The key debate going into Wednesday’s open is whether Oracle is:
- A high‑conviction AI infrastructure leader in the early stages of monetizing a massive backlog, or
- A poster child for an overextended AI bubble, with too much leverage tied to a few marquee customers.
Debt‑funded AI build‑out
Several recent pieces (including from Investopedia, Reuters and Mizuho) emphasize that:
- Oracle has taken on tens of billions of dollars in new debt in 2024–2025, including an $18 billion bond sale earlier this year, pushing total debt above $100 billion. [28]
- The company is reportedly in talks for an additional $38 billion loan to fund new sites for OpenAI and other AI customers. [29]
- Oracle’s debt‑to‑equity ratio north of 4.0, current ratio around 0.62, and negative free cash flow over the last 12 months underscore the near‑term financial strain of this build‑out. [30]
Reliance on OpenAI and AI contracts
At the same time, Oracle has become deeply intertwined with the AI ecosystem:
- A widely cited $300 billion+ OpenAI cloud and data‑center deal and a broader $500 billion “Stargate” AI infrastructure project with OpenAI and SoftBank have made Oracle central to the AI arms race — and heavily exposed to its risks. [31]
- Oracle has disclosed hundreds of billions of dollars in AI‑related cloud backlog, including $65 billion in new OCI commitments in a single quarter, with over 90% of the backlog extending beyond 12 months. [32]
Reuters today described Oracle as facing “scrutiny” over its heavy reliance on OpenAI and debt‑financed data centers, even as it projects around 71% cloud‑infrastructure growth and roughly 15% overall revenue growth for the quarter. [33]
Credit‑default swaps and AI skepticism
An earlier Investopedia deep‑dive noted that:
- Traders have piled into Oracle credit‑default swaps (CDS) as a way to hedge or bet against the AI trade, seeing Oracle as a “poster child” for AI‑related excess after its stock fell more than 40% from its September high. [34]
All of this makes Wednesday’s call less about whether AI is growing (it clearly is) and more about how Oracle plans to fund and monetize it without overstraining its balance sheet.
6. Fundamentals to Watch in Tomorrow’s Report
If you’re watching ORCL around the open on December 10 and into the close, here are the key line items and themes analysts will be dissecting:
1. Headline numbers vs. consensus
- Adjusted EPS: Does Oracle land in the $1.63–$1.65 range or surprise materially? [35]
- Revenue (~$16.2B) and total growth (~15% YoY): Any sign of deceleration vs. guidance for 14–16% growth will matter. [36]
2. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) growth
Jefferies and others are looking for:
- OCI / IaaS revenue up ~70–75% YoY in Q2, accelerating from ~55% in Q1. [37]
- Organic cloud revenue growth (excluding FX) of 32–36%, up from 27% in prior quarters. [38]
Anything that suggests sustained acceleration will support the bull case that Oracle can grow into its AI commitments.
3. Backlog and remaining performance obligations (RPO)
- Analysts expect RPO to exceed $520 billion, with more than 90% extending beyond 12 months — a sign of long‑term demand but also long‑dated monetization. [39]
- Look for how much of the backlog is tied to OpenAI versus other customers such as Meta, xAI and TikTok, and whether Oracle adds more detail on customer diversification. [40]
4. Capex, free cash flow and funding strategy
Expect tough questions around:
- Capex trajectory: Zacks notes Oracle expects capex to jump to around $25 billion this year, up from about $2.3 billion in 2024 — largely for new AI data centers. [41]
- Free cash flow: Several analyses highlight negative free cash flow over the last 12 months as debt and capex surge. [42]
- Financing mix: Will Oracle lean more on leasing, vendor financing and special‑purpose vehicles (as Mizuho suggests), or continue raising large blocks of debt? [43]
5. Margins
Jefferies and Reuters both emphasize margins as a key swing factor:
- AI infrastructure gross margins are expected to sit around 30–40%, not mid‑teens as some bears feared. [44]
- However, overall operating margins may compress in the near term as Oracle mixes more heavily into lower‑margin AI infrastructure before that capacity is fully utilized. [45]
6. Guidance and the long‑term AI roadmap
Oracle has suggested cloud infrastructure revenue could climb from ~$18 billion now to well over $140–160 billion by 2030 as AI workloads ramp. [46]
Any change in multi‑year cloud targets, or more color on backlog conversion timing, will be closely parsed.
7. Technical Picture: Key Levels for Traders
An Investing.com technical note published late Tuesday frames ORCL’s chart this way: [47]
- Drawdown from the high: Oracle is more than 35% below its September 10 all‑time high, after a one‑day 30‑plus percent surge on its last blowout earnings report.
- Support: The mid‑$180s area around $186 — where shares recently bounced — is seen as crucial support, filling much of the gap from Oracle’s June earnings spike.
- Trend: ORCL is back above its rising 200‑day moving average, signaling the primary trend is still bullish despite the drawdown.
- Resistance: There is heavy volume and potential resistance in the $240–$250 zone, which traders will watch if earnings surprise to the upside.
With options implying about a 10% post‑earnings move, a strong report and constructive guidance could push ORCL back toward the mid‑$230s to $240s quickly, while a miss or cautious tone on AI capex and debt could reopen a test of the $200 or even $186 area. [48]
None of this is guaranteed, but these are the levels many short‑term traders are watching into Wednesday’s open.
8. Macro & Sector Context for Tomorrow Morning
Heading into the December 10 open, the context around Oracle is as important as the company‑specific story:
- AI sentiment: Investors are increasingly rewarding capital‑allocation discipline over raw spending. Oracle and Broadcom’s earnings on Wednesday and Thursday are being framed as a “reality check” for the AI trade, especially for software and cloud players. [49]
- Fed policy: With markets pricing in a high probability of another quarter‑point rate cut, any surprise from the Fed’s decision or Chair Powell’s press conference could move risk assets across the board, adding a macro layer of volatility on top of Oracle‑specific news. [50]
- Broader tech: Oracle’s September surge, followed by a >35% collapse, has made it a symbol of both AI enthusiasm and AI hangover, with analysts warning that stress in any part of the AI ecosystem — software, chips, or cloud — can cascade through intertwined revenue and equity relationships. [51]
9. Checklist: 7 Things to Watch Before the December 10 Open
For investors and traders watching ORCL into tomorrow, here’s a concise pre‑open checklist:
- Price action in pre‑market trading
- Does ORCL hold the low‑$220s or drift toward the $210s or $230s as investors position ahead of earnings?
- Implied volatility and options flow
- Does the expected move stay near 10%, or do options traders start pricing in an even larger swing?
- Fresh analyst notes or target changes
- Any last‑minute downgrades, upgrades or target cuts from major firms (Citi, Barclays, Wells Fargo, TD Cowen, RBC, Mizuho, Jefferies)?
- Macro headlines around the Fed
- Any leaks or commentary affecting expectations for the Wednesday rate decision and Powell’s tone?
- AI‑sector sentiment
- Moves in Nvidia, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft and AI‑focused ETFs can signal how investors are feeling about the AI capex cycle more broadly. [52]
- Credit and funding headlines
- Watch for any new reporting on Oracle’s financing plans — such as additional loans, lease structures, or asset‑backed funding for data centers — especially around the $38 billion loan talks highlighted by Mizuho and Reuters. [53]
- Management tone expectations
- Going into the call, many analysts say the key is not just beating Q2 numbers, but reassuring the market that AI demand is durable and that Oracle can fund growth without sacrificing long‑term financial health. [54]
Final Thoughts
After Tuesday’s close, Oracle stock sits at the crossroads:
- On one side, it boasts one of the largest AI and cloud backlogs in the market, rapid OCI growth, and a long runway if AI workloads do scale as hoped. [55]
- On the other, it faces intense scrutiny over leverage, customer concentration, and the timing of cash returns, with Oracle now a favorite vehicle for hedging AI risk via credit derivatives. [56]
What happens after the bell on December 10, 2025 will likely shape not only the next leg for ORCL, but also how investors think about funding the AI infrastructure boom into 2026 and beyond.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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