Oracle stock today: price, performance and volatility
Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) enters Friday, December 5, 2025 trading around $214 per share, after closing at $214.32 on Thursday, up about 3.2% on heavy volume as analysts lifted price targets and reiterated bullish ratings. [1]
Despite the recent rebound, the stock remains well below its 52‑week high of about $345.72, and above its low near $118.86, putting it roughly 40–45% below its peak while still far above 2024 levels. [2] Even after a steep sell‑off into late November, ORCL is still estimated to be around 25–30% higher year to date, reflecting the scale of its earlier AI‑driven rally. [3]
The recent slide has been brutal. Social‑data tracking and financial press reports highlight a drop of roughly 20–23% in November alone, and about a 46% drawdown from the top, with shares bouncing from a key support zone in the $185–$198 area. [4] That volatility, combined with rapidly rising credit‑default‑swap (CDS) prices, has pushed Oracle into the center of the debate over whether the 2025 AI boom is becoming an AI bubble.
Default fears spike as Oracle’s CDS hits crisis‑era highs
One of the most striking data points this week comes from the credit market rather than the stock chart. Oracle’s 5‑year CDS spread has jumped to around 128 basis points, reportedly its highest level since the global financial crisis. [5] In plain English, credit traders are demanding more insurance premium to protect against an Oracle default.
A CDS level in that range is still consistent with investment‑grade credit, but the direction of travel is what has rattled investors. The move reflects concerns about:
- Oracle’s heavy leverage, with one recent analysis citing a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 3x and a current ratio of just 0.62, signalling a balance sheet that is workable but tight. [6]
- Reports that Oracle already carries around $100+ billion of debt and could seek tens of billions more to fund AI data centers and cloud infrastructure, an unusually aggressive capital structure for a mature software company. TechStock²
According to a detailed preview on TipRanks, some analysts argue that part of the CDS spike reflects a broader “AI hedging trade” rather than Oracle‑specific solvency risk: investors have been using Oracle credit as a way to hedge against a potential reversal in high‑multiple AI names. [7] Still, the optics are stark: a company long viewed as a defensive enterprise software giant is suddenly priced in credit markets like a high‑beta AI infrastructure bet.
Q2 FY26 earnings on December 10: what the market expects
The next major catalyst is Oracle’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report. Oracle has confirmed it will release results on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, after the market close, followed by a conference call and webcast at 4:00 p.m. Central Time. [8]
Wall Street’s expectations have been converging around a strongly growing, but not flawless, story:
- Revenue: Consensus is for about $16.2 billion in Q2 revenue, up roughly 15% year over year from around $14.1 billion in the prior‑year quarter. [9]
- Earnings: Analysts are looking for adjusted EPS of about $1.63–$1.64, versus $1.47 a year earlier. [10]
- Company guidance: Oracle previously guided for 12–14% revenue growth in constant currency and non‑GAAP EPS between $1.61 and $1.65 for Q2. [11]
Q1 FY26 set the tone:
- Revenue rose to $14.9 billion from $13.31 billion a year earlier, roughly 12% growth.
- Adjusted EPS increased to $1.47 from $1.39.
- However, both revenue and EPS missed consensus slightly, after a long stretch of beats. [12]
Analysts and investors will be watching Q2 for three big things:
- Cloud and AI growth – particularly Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and AI workloads tied to big customers like OpenAI, xAI, Meta and TikTok. [13]
- Capex and debt trajectory – how much Oracle is spending to build data‑center capacity, and how that is being financed. [14]
- Margin resilience – whether heavy AI investments are compressing profitability faster than revenue growth can compensate. [15]
AI cloud mega‑contracts: the core of the bull case
The central bullish narrative is simple: Oracle has transformed itself into a high‑growth AI and cloud infrastructure platform with an unusually large backlog of contracted revenue.
From Oracle’s Q1 FY26 results and earnings call commentary, analysts estimate that remaining performance obligations (RPO) – essentially contracted revenue not yet recognized – have surged to about $455 billion, more than quadruple prior levels, with management suggesting the figure could exceed half a trillion dollars in the coming months. [16]
Social‑media and alternative‑data trackers picked up on this number, describing a ~359% jump in contracted revenue and projecting future revenue in excess of $455 billion, fueling enthusiasm that Oracle is securing a multi‑year stream of AI and cloud deals. [17]
A TipRanks preview highlights that Oracle has secured “about half a trillion dollars in AI deals” and is working with heavyweight customers including OpenAI, xAI, Meta and TikTok, with management expecting additional multibillion‑dollar customers. [18]
On the fundamental side, consensus estimates compiled by StockAnalysis see Oracle’s: [19]
- Revenue rising from about $57.4 billion in FY25 to $68.4 billion in FY26 (+19%), and to $85 billion in FY27 (+24%).
- EPS climbing from roughly $4.34 to $6.95 in FY26, then to $8.16 in FY27, implying very rapid earnings growth if execution stays on track.
Earlier in 2025, a blow‑out AI‑driven quarter sent Oracle stock up more than 30% in a single session, with news coverage noting that the surge briefly made founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest person and cemented Oracle’s status as a key AI infrastructure player. [20] That “AI supercycle” story remains the spine of the bullish thesis heading into Q2.
The bear case: leverage, concentration risk and AI‑bubble worries
The bearish narrative is just as loud – and the recent price action shows it. Analysts, credit traders and financial media are flagging a cluster of risks:
- Leverage and funding risk
- Oracle’s debt‑to‑equity ratio above 3x and modest liquidity metrics stand out in a sector where many mega‑cap peers carry net cash. [21]
- A TS2.tech summary of Reuters reporting notes that Oracle already holds roughly $104 billion of debt and could seek another $38 billion or so to finance AI data centers — a borrowing level more typical of a telecom or capital‑intensive industrial than a software firm. TechStock²
- Rising CDS spreads suggest bond investors are uneasy with the scale and timing of that capex. [22]
- Customer concentration and OpenAI exposure
- Oracle’s long‑term cloud contracts are heavily tied to a small number of AI hyperscalers, with OpenAI often cited as the single most important partner. [23]
- Commentators worry that having so much infrastructure and revenue growth riding on one or two counterparties raises counterparty and renegotiation risk, especially if AI spending moderates or regulatory scrutiny increases. [24]
- Valuation and AI‑bubble concerns
- Even after the sell‑off, MarketBeat data pegs Oracle’s trailing P/E ratio near 50x, versus a broader software average closer to 30x and a dividend yield under 1%. [25]
- Several market commentators reference a broader rotation away from heavy‑spending AI names toward more conservative dividend and cash‑return stories, with Oracle often mentioned as a poster child for aggressive AI capex. TechStock²+1
- Execution risk on massive backlog
- While a $455+ billion RPO is impressive, skeptics argue that converting that backlog into timely, high‑margin revenue is non‑trivial – especially if capacity ramps ahead of actual utilization. [26]
Put bluntly, the bear case says Oracle has become a highly leveraged AI infrastructure play whose valuation already discounts a lot of good news, even after a near‑halving from its high.
How Wall Street values Oracle stock right now
Despite the turbulence, most traditional Wall Street analysts remain bullish on ORCL, though with a widening spread between optimists and skeptics.
Key snapshots from major aggregators:
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 44 analyst ratings.
- Average 12‑month price target: $322.73, implying about 50–51% upside from the recent ~$214 price.
- Target range: $130 (low) to $400 (high). [27]
- StockAnalysis:
- Coverage: 31 analysts.
- Consensus rating: “Buy”.
- Average target: $336.77, implying roughly 57% upside.
- Target range: $175 to $400. [28]
- TipRanks:
- Rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 25 Buys, 11 Holds and 1 Sell.
- Average price target: about $350.27, suggesting more than 60% upside from the level at the time of that report. [29]
- Quiver Quantitative:
- Tracks 30 analysts issuing targets in the last six months, with a median target around $355, and recent individual targets ranging from $200 (Hold) to $400 (Strong Buy). [30]
Recent single‑firm views show the spread of opinion:
- Citigroup’s Tyler Radke trimmed his target from $415 to $375 but kept a Strong Buy, arguing that worries about CDS spreads and debt may be overstated. [31]
- DA Davidson’s Gil Luria cut his target from $300 to $200 with a Hold rating, effectively saying the stock had run too far ahead of fundamentals. [32]
- Jefferies’ Brent Thill maintained a $400 target and a Strong Buy, pointing to Oracle’s AI backlog and long‑term positioning. [33]
- A widely cited Yahoo Finance piece highlighted another analyst arguing that Oracle shares could reach about $340, citing a “new customer coming in” to its AI cloud pipeline. [34]
Separately, Wells Fargo analysis summarized by Barchart concludes that Oracle’s roughly half‑trillion‑dollar AI deal book could justify around 40% share‑price upside from current levels, assuming the company converts contracts to revenue and margins as planned. [35]
In short: the median Wall Street view is clearly bullish, but the range of plausible outcomes (and price targets) is unusually wide for a company of Oracle’s size.
Quant and technical models: mixed short‑term signals
Algorithmic and technical‑indicator‑driven models paint a more cautious picture than human analysts.
A CoinCodex forecast updated on December 5 shows: [36]
- Current price: $214.33.
- 5‑day outlook: a move toward $223.20 by December 10, about 4.1% above current levels, coinciding with the Q2 earnings release.
- 1‑year algorithmic forecast: around $204.83, implying a small decline (~4%) over the next 12 months.
- Long‑term algorithmic path: a scenario where Oracle could trade near $500 by 2029 and potentially higher beyond that, heavily dependent on trend extrapolation.
Technically, the same dataset notes: [37]
- 50‑day simple moving average (SMA): ~$258, well above the current price, reflecting the sharp recent drawdown.
- 200‑day SMA: ~$211.5, just below current levels – suggesting Oracle is retesting longer‑term trend support.
- 14‑day RSI: around 35–36, a level often associated with a market that is weak but not deeply oversold.
- Overall sentiment is labeled “Neutral”, with a Fear & Greed index reading of 39 (Fear) and high recent volatility (~12% over 30 days).
From a chartist’s point of view, that all lines up with the narrative that Oracle is:
- Well off its highs,
- Trying to stabilize around a long‑term support zone and the 200‑day average, and
- Still vulnerable to sharp moves around the December 10 earnings print.
What to watch on and after December 10
For investors following Oracle into the Q2 FY26 report, the key questions look something like this:
- Backlog conversion vs. cash flow
- Does reported revenue growth start to catch up to the explosive RPO growth?
- Do operating cash flow and free cash flow keep pace with expanding AI capex? [38]
- Debt, CDS and funding plan
- Does management provide a clear roadmap for future borrowing, maturities and potential de‑leveraging?
- Do CDS spreads tighten after the call, suggesting credit markets are more comfortable, or widen further? [39]
- AI demand quality, not just quantity
- Are large AI and cloud deals broadly diversified across industries and customers, or increasingly concentrated?
- Do we see evidence that AI contracts are translating into durable, high‑margin workloads, not just headline contract values? [40]
- Valuation discipline
- At roughly 50x trailing earnings, the stock may need another leg of acceleration in revenue and EPS to justify a move back toward the mid‑$300s targets that many analysts still publish. [41]
Bottom line: Oracle stock on 5 December 2025
As of December 5, 2025, Oracle stock sits at the intersection of two very different narratives:
- A bull story built on enormous AI and cloud infrastructure contracts, a RPO backlog already in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and consensus expectations for 20%+ revenue growth and even faster EPS growth over the next two fiscal years. [42]
- A bear story centered on leverage, concentration risk around OpenAI and other mega‑customers, a CDS spike to crisis‑era levels, and a valuation that still prices Oracle as a premium AI winner despite a near‑50% drawdown from its high. [43]
Wall Street, on balance, still leans firmly optimistic, with average 12‑month price targets clustered in the low‑ to mid‑$300s and ratings dominated by Buys. [44] Quant models and credit markets, however, are sending more cautious signals, emphasizing elevated volatility and funding risk rather than a straight‑line march higher. [45]
For investors and traders alike, the December 10 earnings release is shaping up as a crucial inflection point: it will not only update the numbers, but also test the market’s belief that Oracle can turn its colossal AI backlog into sustainable growth without letting its debt – or the AI bubble narrative – get out of hand.
Nothing in this article is investment advice. Oracle’s setup today is high‑reward, high‑risk; position sizing, diversification and independent research matter at least as much as the next headline about AI contracts or CDS spreads.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. www.quiverquant.com, 5. m.economictimes.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. investor.oracle.com, 9. news.alphastreet.com, 10. news.alphastreet.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. news.alphastreet.com, 13. news.alphastreet.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. news.alphastreet.com, 17. www.quiverquant.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. m.economictimes.com, 23. news.alphastreet.com, 24. www.quiverquant.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. news.alphastreet.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.quiverquant.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. finance.yahoo.com, 35. www.barchart.com, 36. coincodex.com, 37. coincodex.com, 38. news.alphastreet.com, 39. m.economictimes.com, 40. news.alphastreet.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. news.alphastreet.com, 43. m.economictimes.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. coincodex.com
