NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:52 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Oracle Corporation stock is heading into the final three U.S. trading sessions of 2025 with a familiar tug-of-war: bulls point to explosive cloud infrastructure demand and a record backlog, while skeptics focus on the financing and cash-flow strain of Oracle’s accelerated AI data-center buildout.
With markets shut for the weekend, investors are parsing Friday’s close, late-week commentary, and fresh year-end positioning signals—while looking ahead to Monday’s reopening amid holiday-thinned liquidity and a packed macro calendar.
Where Oracle stock stands heading into Monday
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) finished Friday’s regular session around $198 per share, after trading between roughly $196 and $200 during the day.
In extended trading quotes tracked by MarketBeat, ORCL was indicated near $196.88 late Friday evening, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to late-week risk-off flows and thin holiday trading. [1]
Key headlines in the last 48 hours
While Oracle itself has not posted a new corporate announcement over the past two days, several widely circulated year-end reports sharpened the market’s narrative around ORCL:
- “Worst quarter since 2001” framing returns: Multiple reports over the last two days highlighted Oracle’s quarter-to-date drawdown and investor anxiety around the scale of AI-related spending commitments tied to its cloud expansion. [2]
- Financing and balance-sheet debate dominates the conversation: Coverage focused on the idea that Oracle’s AI push could require substantial funding—via debt and long-duration leases—at a time when investors are increasingly discriminating about AI infrastructure economics. [3]
- Institutional positioning remains in focus into year-end: MarketBeat summarized recent filing-driven positioning changes by some investors as traders head into the last week of the calendar year. [4]
- Macro backdrop: year-end rally, rotation, and light volume: Broader market coverage emphasized that thin liquidity can exaggerate price moves and that investors are watching rotation dynamics after earlier tech weakness tied to AI spending concerns. [5]
The fundamental bull case: Oracle’s cloud growth and backlog
Oracle’s most recent earnings report—released Dec. 10—remains the core anchor for the bull narrative. Oracle reported:
- Total revenue of $16.1 billion, up 14% year over year
- Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) of $8.0 billion, up 34%
- Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue of $4.1 billion, up 68%
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $523 billion, up 438% [6]
That RPO number—essentially a measure of contracted future revenue—has been one of the most important data points in Oracle’s 2025 re-rating. On the same release, Oracle highlighted a board-declared quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, with shareholders of record as of Jan. 9, 2026 and a payment date of Jan. 23, 2026—another near-term calendar item investors may factor into positioning. [7]
The bear case: cash burn, capex, and “can Oracle finance the build?”
The pushback on Oracle stock has not been about demand in isolation—it’s about how expensive it is to fulfill that demand.
A Reuters Breakingviews column by Robert Cyran crystallized the market concern earlier this month: Oracle’s AI data-center expansion can generate large future revenue streams, but the near-term cash needs are substantial, and the company raised its expected fiscal-year spending outlook from $35 billion to $50 billion in that period’s discussion. [8]
Oracle’s own filings help explain why the debate persists. In its Q2 FY2026 materials, Oracle reported for the six months ended Nov. 30, 2025:
- Net cash provided by operating activities:$10.206 billion
- Capital expenditures:$(20.535) billion [9]
On a trailing four-quarter basis shown in the same release, Oracle also reported operating cash flow of $22.296 billion versus capital expenditures of $(35.477) billion, with trailing free cash flow shown as $(13.181) billion. [10]
The funding side is visible in the same cash-flow statement: Oracle recorded $17.880 billion in proceeds from issuances of senior notes and term-loan credit agreements (net of issuance costs) over that six-month period. [11]
What experts are watching: credit risk and customer concentration
A key question for ORCL into 2026 is whether Oracle can scale capacity while keeping enough financial flexibility—particularly if demand timing shifts or contract economics evolve.
In a Reuters earnings-preview piece, Mark Moerdler of Bernstein said investors were likely to focus on the fundamentals of Oracle’s AI buildout and its financial implications, and he flagged that Oracle’s OpenAI-related contract created an unusually large degree of revenue exposure to a single customer. In that same report, Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson argued that if OpenAI were unable to follow through, Oracle would likely need to slow its buildout and work down debt rather than face an existential outcome. [12]
Credit markets have been part of that discussion, too. Reuters has also pointed to investor attention on the cost of insuring Oracle’s debt during periods of heightened concern about the pace of spending and funding needs. [13]
Street forecasts: price targets remain high, but dispersion is wide
Despite the volatility, Wall Street’s average long-range view on Oracle remains constructive—though far from unanimous.
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot lists:
- Average 12-month price target:$307.72
- High forecast:$400
- Low forecast:$135
- Consensus rating:Moderate Buy [14]
That spread matters. Wide dispersion in targets typically signals that analysts agree on the direction of the opportunity (AI infrastructure demand and OCI momentum), but disagree on the valuation and risk discount associated with funding, margins, and customer concentration.
Separately, Zacks research syndicated on Nasdaq noted that the Zacks consensus estimate for Oracle’s fiscal 2026 earnings was $7.33 per share, reflecting upward revisions over the prior month—another data point bulls may cite as the Street resets earnings power after Oracle’s December quarter update. [15]
Oracle’s longer-term roadmap: 2030 targets still loom over the debate
Oracle’s long-term story is not just “more cloud.” It is “more AI cloud,” at scale.
Reuters reported that Oracle laid out a vision in which cloud infrastructure revenue could reach $166 billion in fiscal 2030 and total revenue could grow to $225 billion, with the company also discussing margin ranges across segments and emphasizing that bookings were coming from multiple customers—not only OpenAI. [16]
For equity investors, that long-term framing cuts both ways:
- It supports the thesis that Oracle is no longer simply a legacy database company—OCI could become the primary driver of the business.
- It also underscores the magnitude of upfront capital investment required to reach those targets—and the sensitivity of valuation if timelines shift.
The market setup for Monday: why the next session could feel “louder” than usual
Because it’s the final week of the year, Oracle stock could trade less on company-specific headlines and more on liquidity and cross-asset positioning.
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” noted that stocks are near record levels and that year-end portfolio adjustments can introduce volatility, particularly when light trading volumes amplify moves. It also emphasized that Fed minutes are due Tuesday and that investors remain highly focused on the rate outlook into 2026—an important variable for long-duration growth stocks like ORCL. [17]
Investopedia’s market-calendar coverage similarly highlighted a holiday-shortened week around New Year’s and pointed to key economic releases and the potential for volatility after a strong 2025 run. [18]
What investors should know before the next session opens
With U.S. markets closed today, here’s what matters most for ORCL holders and watchers before Monday’s open:
- Be ready for year-end liquidity effects. In the final week of December, price swings can be sharper than usual on relatively small flows—especially in mega-cap tech names that are common portfolio building blocks. [19]
- Track rates and Fed expectations. Oracle’s valuation debate is tightly linked to long-term cash flow expectations; shifts in rate-cut assumptions can quickly move the whole tech complex. [20]
- Watch for any incremental AI infrastructure headlines. Oracle’s bull/bear split is centered on execution: building capacity fast enough to meet demand without overextending the balance sheet. [21]
- Keep the dividend calendar in mind. Oracle’s declared $0.50 quarterly dividend has a Jan. 9, 2026 record date and Jan. 23, 2026 payment date, which can influence some income-focused positioning as the new year begins. [22]
- Know the holiday schedule. New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026) is a full market holiday, while the final trading days of 2025 include regular equity sessions—important for anyone managing risk into the turn of the year. [23]
Bottom line for Oracle stock into the week ahead
Oracle stock enters the final stretch of 2025 at the intersection of two powerful forces: accelerating demand for AI computing capacity and rising investor scrutiny over how that capacity gets funded. The company’s reported OCI growth and massive RPO backlog support the long-term bull case. Yet the cash-flow and capex profile keeps the market focused on balance-sheet discipline, customer concentration, and the pace at which contracted demand converts into profitable, cash-generating revenue. [24]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. nypost.com, 3. nypost.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investor.oracle.com, 7. investor.oracle.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. investor.oracle.com, 10. investor.oracle.com, 11. investor.oracle.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investor.oracle.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. investor.oracle.com
