Oracle stock heads into Monday’s U.S. session with investors still digesting one of the most volatile stretches for the company in years: a post-earnings selloff, a sharp reset in Wall Street price targets, and a new wave of debate over whether Big Tech’s AI infrastructure buildout is moving faster than near-term returns.
As of the latest available trading data, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) was last around $190 per share, down meaningfully from its September peak near $345 (roughly a 45% slide from that high). [1]
Below is what matters most for Oracle stock before the opening bell on Monday, December 15, 2025—including the latest headlines, Oracle’s own outlook, and the key questions analysts say will decide whether the dip stabilizes or deepens.
Where Oracle stock stands heading into Monday
Oracle shares are entering the week after a sharp repricing that has pushed the stock far below its early-fall highs. A major theme in recent coverage: the market is no longer rewarding “AI capex at any cost” the way it did earlier in 2025, and Oracle has become a high-profile test case for that shift. [2]
Even bulls who still like Oracle’s long-term cloud trajectory are now focusing on execution risk, financing risk, and how quickly Oracle can convert its massive contract backlog into revenue and cash flow.
The big catalyst: Earnings beat headlines, but revenue and guidance disappointed
Oracle’s fiscal Q2 2026 report (released Dec. 10, 2025) delivered strong cloud growth and a headline EPS beat—but also a revenue miss and lighter-than-expected guidance, which is what drove the initial after-hours drop and the subsequent multi-day volatility.
Key Q2 numbers investors are reacting to
Oracle reported:
- Total revenue: $16.1 billion, up 14% year over year [3]
- Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS): $8.0 billion, up 34% [4]
- Cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue: $4.1 billion, up 68% [5]
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $523 billion, up 438% year over year [6]
- GAAP EPS: $2.10; Non-GAAP EPS: $2.26 [7]
However, Reuters reported Oracle’s Q2 revenue was $16.06 billion versus $16.21 billion expected, and that operating income also came in slightly below consensus. [8]
Guidance: what Oracle told the Street to expect next
According to Reuters, Oracle guided for fiscal Q3:
- Adjusted EPS: $1.64 to $1.68, below the $1.72 estimate [9]
- Revenue growth: 16% to 18%, below the roughly 19.4% growth expectation [10]
That “guidance gap” matters because Oracle’s 2025 rerating was fueled not just by cloud momentum, but by a narrative that AI-driven infrastructure demand would scale quickly and profitably.
The elephant in the room: Oracle’s AI spending just got much bigger
The most market-moving takeaway wasn’t a single line item from the quarter—it was Oracle’s capital spending trajectory.
Capex jumped, and the market is demanding proof of payback
Oracle said spending for fiscal 2026 is now expected to be $15 billion higher than it previously estimated in September, when it pointed to about $35 billion—implying around $50 billion for the fiscal year ending in May 2026. [11]
That capex ramp is the core reason Oracle has become a lightning rod in the broader “AI bubble vs. AI buildout” debate. Reuters Breakingviews highlighted the mismatch investors are now focused on: in the quarter, operating cash flow was roughly $2 billion while capex was $12 billion, and Oracle raised its full-year capex outlook from $35 billion to $50 billion. [12]
Oracle says it has financing levers—watch how investors respond
On the earnings call, Oracle executives described alternative ways to align spending with demand, including models where customers can bring their own chips, and arrangements where vendors rent capacity rather than sell it—reducing Oracle’s upfront capital burden. [13]
This is a key “what to watch” item for Monday and beyond: does the market buy the financing story, or does it continue to discount the stock until free cash flow turns?
The Ampere gain boosted EPS—investors are looking past it
Oracle’s earnings were helped by a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain from selling its interest in Ampere. Oracle disclosed that both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were positively impacted by that gain. [14]
This is important context for Monday because headline EPS strength can look less reassuring when the market believes the “real” debate is about (1) capex intensity, (2) margins as cloud grows, and (3) how much incremental profit new AI infrastructure will generate.
Backlog is massive—but Oracle still missed expectations on a key metric
Oracle’s story is now heavily tied to the size and quality of its future commitments.
- Oracle reported RPO of $523 billion, and said the quarter included new commitments from Meta and NVIDIA(among others). [15]
- But Reuters reported the $523 billion figure was below a Visible Alpha estimate of $526 billion, and called out that Oracle’s closely watched forward-looking metric missed Wall Street estimates. [16]
That nuance matters: when a stock is priced for high growth, even a “huge number” can disappoint if it’s not huge enough or if investors doubt the timeline for monetization.
OpenAI exposure: Oracle’s biggest upside—and a growing source of risk
Oracle’s AI narrative has been supercharged by its role as a major OpenAI cloud partner, including the widely reported $300 billion agreement. [17]
But that concentration is also what’s making investors uneasy—especially as Oracle funds a rapid buildout and credit investors scrutinize leverage.
The latest weekend headline risk: data center delay reports (and Oracle’s denial)
On Dec. 12, Bloomberg reported Oracle had pushed back completion dates for some OpenAI-related data centers to 2028from 2027, citing shortages. Reuters reported Oracle denied the delay, saying:
- “There have been no delays… and all milestones remain on track,” and that Oracle remains aligned with OpenAI. [18]
For Monday’s open, this remains a key sensitivity: any additional reporting or confirmation/denial around buildout timelines can move the stock quickly, because it goes straight to the heart of whether capex translates to revenue on schedule.
Credit market stress is part of the Oracle story now
Oracle’s equity volatility has been mirrored in credit chatter. Reuters noted investors have been dumping Oracle bonds amid worries about a debt-fueled AI buildout, and that credit-default swap pricing hit multi-year highs. [19]
This matters for stockholders because sustained credit pressure can translate into higher financing costs, more conservative capital returns, or (in the extreme) rating actions—each of which can weigh on valuation multiples.
Analyst forecast reset: price targets were cut, but not everyone turned bearish
Wall Street reaction has been swift. Reuters reported at least 13 brokerages cut their price targets after the results and capex outlook. [20]
Recent examples of price-target changes cited in current coverage
- JPMorgan: price target cut to $230 from $270 (Neutral) [21]
- DA Davidson: price target cut to $180 from $200 (Neutral) [22]
- KeyBanc: price target cut to $300 from $350 (Overweight) [23]
- UBS: price target cut to $325 from $380 (Buy) [24]
Investors should read these cuts in context: many targets were set when Oracle was priced for a smoother AI ramp. The immediate question is whether cuts continue into the Monday open (and early week), which can keep pressure on the stock even without new company news.
What “consensus” looked like before the earnings shock
A Nasdaq.com roundup citing analyst forecasts (as of Dec. 5, 2025) put Oracle’s average one-year price target around $343.56, with estimates spanning roughly $176.89 to $420.00. [25]
Given the magnitude of Oracle’s move since the earnings release, investors often treat older consensus numbers as “stale” until banks refresh models to reflect the new capex path and updated guidance.
Valuation and positioning: the market is getting more selective on AI
Oracle has become a symbol of a broader investor shift: rather than bidding up every AI-adjacent name, investors are increasingly asking when the returns show up.
Reuters described a changing relationship between aggressive AI spending and stock prices—pointing to signs that the market has become less willing to indiscriminately reward capex-heavy strategies. [26]
Reuters also flagged Oracle’s forward P/E multiple relative to large-cap peers (based on LSEG data) as part of the debate over what the stock should be worth when the near-term cash flow picture is under pressure. [27]
What could move Oracle stock on Monday, Dec. 15
Here are the most important “Monday morning” drivers to watch:
- Any follow-up reporting on OpenAI data center timelines
Oracle’s denial helped, but the market remains sensitive to construction bottlenecks and delivery schedules. [28] - More analyst downgrades or price-target cuts
With multiple firms already resetting targets, additional revisions could amplify moves at the open. - AI trade sentiment across megacaps and infrastructure suppliers
Oracle’s move has been treated as a read-through for the broader AI buildout trade in recent Reuters analysis. [29] - Bond market signals / credit commentary
Continued stress in CDS or longer-dated bonds can spill into equity sentiment if investors see rising financing risk. [30] - Any incremental color from Oracle on capex financing
The more investors believe capex is “customer-backed” and financing is manageable, the easier it is for the stock to stabilize. [31]
The bull vs. bear case heading into the open
Why bulls still see upside
- Cloud growth is strong, particularly infrastructure. [32]
- RPO/backlog is enormous, signaling demand visibility if Oracle can execute. [33]
- Oracle is positioning itself as a critical AI infrastructure supplier, not just a legacy database vendor. [34]
Why bears (and cautious investors) are pushing back
- The capex ramp to about $50B is forcing a near-term cash flow tradeoff, raising questions about leverage and returns. [35]
- Oracle’s Q3 guidance missed expectations, which undermines confidence that monetization is accelerating quickly enough. [36]
- Customer concentration—especially exposure to OpenAI—makes the story more fragile if timelines slip or demand shifts. [37]
Bottom line for Monday’s open
Oracle stock is no longer trading primarily on “AI excitement.” It’s trading on AI execution—and, more specifically, whether a huge capex ramp can translate into durable revenue and profit without destabilizing cash flow or the balance sheet.
For the Monday open, investors should expect headline-driven volatility to remain elevated—especially around (1) capex and financing details, (2) OpenAI data center buildout timelines, and (3) continued analyst target resets following last week’s earnings shock. [38]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. investor.oracle.com, 4. investor.oracle.com, 5. investor.oracle.com, 6. investor.oracle.com, 7. investor.oracle.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investor.oracle.com, 15. investor.oracle.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. investor.oracle.com, 33. investor.oracle.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com
