New York, Feb 10, 2026, 05:05 EST — Premarket
Oracle rallied 9.7% to finish Monday at $156.59, buoyed by a D.A. Davidson upgrade to “buy.” The firm said concerns tied to Oracle’s OpenAI exposure were fading. That puts Oracle in the spotlight again when U.S. markets reopen Tuesday. 1
The timing is key here, as Oracle looks to rally the cash it needs for a rapid Oracle Cloud Infrastructure buildout, all while keeping investors comfortable about both dilution and leverage. On Feb. 1, the company laid out its plan to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in gross proceeds during calendar 2026. That haul will come from a mix of debt and equity, Oracle said, including up to $20 billion through an at-the-market program—basically, a way to drip shares into the market at current prices. 2
The pressure is clear in big tech, with AI investments pushing companies to tap debt markets. Alphabet just priced a $20 billion bond issue on Monday, coming after Oracle’s $25 billion bond sale earlier in the month, Reuters reported. “AI has eaten in to cash flows of software companies,” CredCore co-founder Karthik Nandyal told the outlet. 3
Oracle’s pricing term sheet, filed Feb. 2, detailed an investment-grade notes sale spanning several maturities—among them, floating-rate paper maturing in 2029 and fixed-rate bonds stretching all the way to 2066. Unlike speculative-grade issuers, companies with higher credit ratings typically tap the market with investment-grade debt, which usually comes priced over government benchmarks by a set spread.
Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson thinks the market reaction went too far, telling clients a “revamped OpenAI” backed by new capital should have no trouble paying Oracle. He pointed out OpenAI “already has as much as $40B of cash on hand” with the possibility of raising another $100B. Right now, he said, “The market is currently assigning the OpenAI relationship a negative value.” 4
The relief rally isn’t convincing everyone. On Monday, Melius Research cut Oracle to “hold” from “buy,” sticking with a $160 target. The firm knocked Oracle for not generating cash and flagged growing AI competition. Melius cautioned there’s “no guarantee that OpenAI beats Anthropic and Google.” 5
OpenAI’s tie-up with Oracle has been a major force behind the stock’s recent volatility. Last year, Reuters flagged a Wall Street Journal story that said OpenAI agreed to buy $300 billion worth of computing power from Oracle over about five years. The market’s been wrestling with how fast deals like that turn into actual revenue—and what Oracle might have to spend before seeing any returns. 6
Traders are zeroed in on mechanics now: how fast Oracle draws on the equity program, how much debt the market can handle, and if big customers stick with their build timelines. News about OpenAI funding or capacity could jolt the stock in a hurry.
Action across the AI supply chain remains choppy. Microsoft climbed 3.1%, Nvidia tacked on 2.4% last session. Both moves highlight just how fast sentiment can flip as investors try to figure out the winners—and who’s left footing the bill—in the scramble to scale up.
Still, the risks are clear enough. Higher financing costs or delayed deployments from major customers could leave Oracle shelling out cash before revenue catches up, all while shareholders take on more dilution—never a great mix, even for “strategic” capex plays.
Oracle’s upcoming earnings, due around March 9, are the next obvious trigger. Investors want specifics: cloud demand, capex, and how quickly funding is flowing. 7
