HENDERSON, Nevada, May 15, 2026, 13:03 PT
P3 Health Partners Inc. shares more than tripled in late Friday trading after the Medicare-focused care company reported a first-quarter profit and raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook. The stock was recently at $13.00, versus a prior close of $4.03, after hitting $14.08 intraday, according to market data.
That matters because P3 has been trying to show its value-based care model can produce earnings after years of losses. In a filing, the company said it had recorded losses since inception until the March quarter and still had only $25.5 million in unrestricted cash at March 31.
P3’s update came as investors watched to see whether Medicare Advantage costs are stabilizing. Reuters reported this week that U.S. insurers showed stronger first-quarter results, but analysts said the second quarter would offer a cleaner read on claims trends after early-year distortions.
P3 said first-quarter revenue increased 4% to $386 million, even as at-risk membership dropped 10% to about 106,000; the company linked the decline to “intentional network and payer rationalization.” Total lives under management were about 135,000, with 29,000 under service arrangements. Business Wire
Net income came in at $3.0 million, against a loss of $44.2 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure that strips out interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and certain other items, reached $25.8 million, compared with a $22.2 million loss in the prior-year quarter.
P3’s chief executive, Dr. Aric Coffman, called the quarter “a meaningful turning point,” saying the result reflected two years of contract restructuring, network concentration and operational redesign. The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $20 million to $60 million, with a $40 million midpoint. Business Wire
The numbers were not clean across the board. Chief Financial Officer Leif Pedersen told analysts that about $17 million of the quarter’s benefit stemmed from favorable prior-year development and payer settlements, with roughly 65% tied to reserve development and 35% to settlements. Strip those items out, and underlying adjusted EBITDA was $8 million, he said.
Medical margin — the amount left after medical claims are deducted from capitation revenue — climbed to $73.7 million from $17.2 million a year earlier. The company said per-member Medicare Advantage funding improved about 15% from a year earlier, aided by rate progression, contract changes and documentation of patient illness burden.
That is the case P3 is making in a crowded, battered corner of healthcare. Agilon Health, another value-based care company, said first-quarter adjusted EBITDA climbed to about $54 million while reserving Medicare Advantage medical cost trend at 7.4%; Privia Health, whose physician platform has a broader mix, reported a 36.3% increase in adjusted EBITDA.
The balance sheet is still the biggest caveat. P3’s 10-Q said there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern within one year and warned it may need more debt or equity financing if cash flow is not enough to fund operations. The filing also showed a $353.3 million working capital deficit and a $143.5 million stockholders’ deficit at March 31.
P3 later took steps to reinforce that position. In an April 27 debt exchange, roughly $252.5 million of unsecured promissory notes was converted into preferred stock. The company also agreed to issue as much as $70 million of preferred stock-and-warrant units, with $30 million already sold by April 30.
The real test now is whether the company can keep medical costs down through the rest of the year, not just during a strong first quarter. Pedersen said results within the new guidance range hinge on cost-trend development and execution against medical-cost initiatives; after Friday’s stock move, there is less room for slippage.
