Palantir Stock on November 29, 2025: Record AI Growth Meets a Brutal November Sell-Off

November 29, 2025

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) has just wrapped up one of the most dramatic months in its public-market life: a blowout earnings beat, fresh multibillion-dollar government deals, a wave of insider selling, and a very public short bet from “Big Short” investor Michael Burry — all against the backdrop of an AI-fueled tech boom that some now openly call a bubble. ^[1]

For investors tracking Palantir stock on November 29, 2025, the picture is a mix of explosive fundamental growth and increasingly nervous market sentiment.

Palantir (PLTR) stock today: price and performance snapshot

U.S. markets are closed this Saturday, so the latest full trading session for Palantir stock is Friday, November 28, 2025. Palantir closed that session at $168.45, up 1.62% on the day, with after-hours trading nudging the price slightly above $169. ^[2]

That closing price leaves Palantir roughly 19% below its all-time high of $207.52, set on November 3 immediately after its Q3 earnings release. ^[3]

Despite November’s pullback, the stock is still more than double its level at the start of 2025, and it remains one of the top-performing large-cap AI names this year. Analysts at multiple outlets have highlighted that PLTR has gained over 100% year-to-date and has ranked among the best performers in the S&P 500 in 2025. ^[4]

However, November was brutal. According to TipRanks and other market trackers, Palantir shares dropped about 16% over the past four weeks, marking their worst month since August 2023, as investors rotated out of high-flying AI names and began questioning stretched valuations. ^[5]

A record-shattering Q3 2025 for Palantir

The paradox of Palantir’s recent stock slide is that it comes immediately after one of the strongest quarters in the company’s history.

In Q3 2025, reported on November 3, Palantir delivered: ^[6]

Revenue of $1.181 billion, up 63% year-over-year and about 8% above Wall Street estimates.
EPS of $0.21, topping the consensus estimate of $0.17 — a positive surprise of more than 20%.
A record adjusted operating margin of 51% and net dollar retention rate of 134%, indicating customers are expanding their usage significantly.
U.S. commercial revenue surging 121% year-over-year, underscoring Palantir’s rapid expansion beyond its government roots.

Management also raised full-year guidance aggressively. Palantir now expects 2025 revenue of roughly $4.4 billion, about 53% growth versus 2024, and projects Q4 2025 revenue around $1.33 billion, implying 61% year-over-year growth. ^[7]

Executives emphasized that Palantir’s AI Platform (AIP) is driving much of this acceleration, claiming the company is effectively becoming the “defining enterprise software company” for real-world AI deployments. ^[8]

From a purely fundamental perspective — growth, margins, and profitability — the quarter looked like a textbook AI success story. The stock initially reacted accordingly, spiking in after-hours trading and closing near its all-time high above $207 the following session. ^[9]

Massive government and defense contracts keep piling up

Palantir’s long-term bull case still rests heavily on its role at the center of Western defense, intelligence, and public-sector data infrastructure — and 2025 has significantly strengthened that narrative.

Key contract wins and expansions in the past few months include:

U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement (EA)
In July, the U.S. Army awarded Palantir a sweeping enterprise agreement that consolidates 75 separate contracts into a single framework. The deal runs for up to 10 years with a maximum potential value of $10 billion, allowing the Army and other DoD agencies to buy Palantir’s commercial software under a shared umbrella with volume-based discounts. ^[10]
Marine Corps – Maven Smart System
In September, the U.S. Marine Corps announced a new enterprise license to extend Palantir’s AI-powered Maven Smart System (MSS) across its forces. The system integrates data from sensors and command systems to provide a live picture of the battlespace and accelerate “sensor-to‑shooter” targeting via automation and AI. The underlying MSS contract ceiling was previously increased by the Pentagon to nearly $1.3 billion through 2029. ^[11]
Department of Veterans Affairs – $385M NCVAS Platform
In October, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs awarded Palantir a $385.4 million contract to provide the National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics (NCVAS) Platform, replacing an earlier Foundry SaaS implementation. The platform will consolidate health and benefits data from across the VA and other agencies to improve veteran outcomes and operational decision-making. ^[12]
U.S. Treasury / IRS modernization
The U.S. Treasury Department selected Palantir to provide a unified API and data layer for IRS modernization — a core part of a broader IT overhaul aimed at better taxpayer services and cybersecurity. In Treasury’s own description, Palantir’s tools will support developer platforms, workflow automation, and analytics across federal employees. ^[13]
AI software for nuclear reactor construction
In June, Reuters reported Palantir had partnered with a nuclear deployment company to build an AI-driven “nuclear operating system (NOS)” to streamline reactor construction, under a deal worth about $100 million over five years. The software aims to cut costs and accelerate deployment as nuclear power demand rises to support AI data-center loads. ^[14]

These contracts reinforce Palantir’s position as a strategic supplier to multiple U.S. federal agencies and defense branches, while also extending its reach into critical infrastructure like nuclear energy.

So why is Palantir stock selling off after such strong results?

The short version: valuation, positioning, and sentiment.

1. A crowded AI trade and bubble worries

Palantir is a poster child of the 2023–2025 AI rally. Business Insider notes that shares have risen about 26-fold since the start of 2023, with a market cap near $390 billion and a valuation around 90 times projected 2025 revenue — numbers that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. ^[15]

TipRanks reports that even after November’s drop, Palantir trades at around 700 times forward earnings by some estimates, prompting major brokers like Jefferies and Deutsche Bank to label its valuation “extreme” and “hard to wrap our heads around.” ^[16]

As broader tech indices pulled back in early November, Palantir repeatedly led the declines. Reuters and other outlets highlighted the stock among the worst-hit AI names on days when bank CEOs and macro strategists warned about stretched equity valuations and froth in high-growth tech. ^[17]

2. Worst month in two years

By late November, PLTR had fallen roughly 16% over four weeks, its worst monthly performance since August 2023, as investors rotated out of ultra-expensive AI winners. ^[18]

StockAnalysis data shows a particularly violent stretch around mid-month: a 7.9% drop on November 4, a 6.8% decline on November 6, and other daily moves of 3–6% becoming a regular occurrence. ^[19]

3. Profit‑taking after a parabolic run

Even neutral analysts have long warned that Palantir’s valuation had outrun its fundamentals, at least in the short term. Articles on platforms such as Seeking Alpha and Barchart over November stress the tension between the company’s genuine hypergrowth and the risk that any disappointment — or even just lower AI euphoria — could trigger a steep correction. ^[20]

November’s sell-off looks less like a fundamental collapse and more like a sharp repricing of expectations after a multi-year melt‑up.

Michael Burry’s short bet and the insider selling wave

Two stories in particular have supercharged bearish narratives around Palantir stock over the past two weeks: Michael Burry’s puts and a cluster of large insider sales.

Burry bets against Palantir

Michael Burry — famous for betting against the U.S. housing market before the 2008 crisis — has publicly disclosed bearish put options on both Nvidia and Palantir, and he has used his Substack and social posts to warn that AI stocks may be in a bubble. ^[21]

Key points from his recent commentary, as reported by Business Insider and others: ^[22]

He argues that AI companies are overestimating the useful life of GPU assets, which could lead to major writedowns.
He believes investors may be underestimating how quickly AI hardware (and possibly revenue assumptions built on it) could become obsolete between 2026 and 2028.
Earlier regulatory filings showed Burry’s fund held puts with a combined notional value over $1 billion, though he has said the actual capital at risk was closer to around $10 million per position.

Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp publicly brushed off Burry’s thesis, but for momentum-driven traders the mere presence of such a high-profile short seller added fuel to the reversal. ^[23]

“Monster” insider selling

At almost the same time, Palantir insiders themselves started filing to sell large blocks of shares.

Finbold reports that on November 20, CEO Alex Karp filed a Form 144 to sell 585,000 shares, with an estimated value of about $95.9 million at a reference price of $163.99. ^[24]

The same day, four other senior executives — Stephen Cohen, Ryan Taylor, David Glazer, and Shyam Sankar — also filed for proposed share sales. Collectively, those plans amounted to more than 1.26 million shares and over $205 million in potential stock disposals, indicating a coordinated wave of insider selling. ^[25]

Finbold notes that Palantir dropped 5.85% to $155.74 on November 20, with traders increasingly focusing on insider activity just weeks after a strong earnings beat. ^[26]

While these sales were filed under pre‑arranged 10b5‑1 plans and are not necessarily a verdict on Palantir’s long-term prospects, the optics — executives cashing out after a parabolic rally and a high-profile short thesis — have clearly weighed on sentiment.

What Wall Street is saying: explosive growth vs extreme valuation

Analyst and institutional views on Palantir in late November can be summarized as “spectacular business, uncomfortable price.”

Consensus rating and price targets

TipRanks data shows Palantir currently carries a consensus “Hold” rating from 16 Wall Street analysts: 3 Buy, 11 Hold, and 2 Sell, with an average price target around $187.87 — implying roughly 11% upside from current levels near $168. ^[27]

Seeking Alpha and other research platforms frequently highlight: ^[28]

Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 60% from 2025–2029, reaching over $9 billion by 2029 in some bullish scenarios.
At the same time, valuation metrics like price-to-sales and price-to-earnings are far above even other premium software and AI peers.

Barchart notes that analysts project 2025 EPS around $0.52, a jump of more than 500% year-over-year, and 2026 EPS around $0.79 — but even on those numbers, Palantir trades at a forward multiple many investors consider demanding.

Debate on social and options markets

Quiver Quant and social-media sentiment trackers have observed active debate on X (formerly Twitter) about whether Palantir is: ^[29]

A core long-term AI infrastructure play, comparable to Nvidia in importance for enterprise AI software; or
An AI bubble symbol, likely to compress sharply in valuation if growth slows or macro conditions worsen.

Options data around the November 3 earnings report suggested traders were pricing in large post‑earnings moves, consistent with the realized swings of 5–8% seen on multiple days afterwards. ^[30]

Key risks investors are watching

As of November 29, 2025, several key risk factors dominate discussions around Palantir stock:

Valuation compression risk
Even after the sell-off, Palantir trades at revenue and earnings multiples that leave little room for operational missteps. A slowdown in growth, lower margin trajectory, or any contract disruption could trigger further multiple compression. ^[31]
Concentration in U.S. markets
Palantir’s U.S. business accounts for roughly three-quarters of revenue and is driving the bulk of growth. While that’s currently a strength, it also concentrates regulatory, political, and budgetary risk. ^[32]
Reliance on government and defense spending
Even as commercial revenue surges, government contracts — including the $10 billion Army EA and large VA and DoD deals — remain central. Shifts in U.S. defense priorities, procurement rules, or political sentiment could affect long-term demand. ^[33]
Reputational and regulatory scrutiny
Palantir has long faced criticism over its work with law enforcement and immigration agencies. Protests, such as those at its New York office in recent years, and broader debates over surveillance and AI ethics could lead to regulatory constraints or lost contracts in some jurisdictions. ^[34]
Macro and AI‑cycle risk
If capital spending on AI infrastructure cools, or if investors broadly decide AI stocks are overvalued, highly leveraged sentiment names like Palantir could see outsized downside — irrespective of near-term contract wins. Burry’s short thesis and comparisons to past bubbles have elevated this risk in public discourse. ^[35]

Palantir stock outlook for 2026: what to watch

No one knows precisely how Palantir stock will trade over the next year, but the battle lines for 2026 are increasingly clear:

Bullish case
- Revenue keeps compounding at 40–60% annually, especially in U.S. commercial.
- AIP becomes a de facto standard for enterprise AI deployment.
- Government contracts like the Army EA, VA NCVAS, Marine MSS, and IRS modernization turn into long-duration, high-margin cash flows. ^[36]
Bearish case
- AI enthusiasm cools, causing a sector-wide derating.
- Insider selling and high-profile shorts signal that expectations have gotten out of hand.
- Growth slows faster than forecast, making today’s multiples difficult to justify. ^[37]

For now, Palantir sits in an unusual position: one of the fastest‑growing large software companies on the planet, trading at valuations that many professional investors openly call extreme. That combination makes PLTR both highly attractive and highly risky, depending on one’s time horizon and tolerance for volatility.

Anyone considering Palantir stock at current levels should be prepared for continued large price swings, follow contract and earnings updates closely, and weigh the company’s exceptional growth against the clear possibility of further valuation reset.

FAQ: Palantir stock on November 29, 2025

What is Palantir’s latest share price?
Palantir closed at $168.45 on Friday, November 28, 2025, with after‑hours trading slightly above $169. ^[38]

How far is PLTR from its recent high?
The stock is about 19% below its all-time high of $207.52, set on November 3, 2025, following Q3 earnings. ^[39]

Why did Palantir drop in November 2025?
November’s decline reflects profit‑taking, concerns over extremely rich valuations, a broader AI stock pullback, heavy insider selling, and public short positions like Michael Burry’s puts. ^[40]

Is Palantir still growing?
Yes. Q3 2025 revenue grew 63% year-over-year, U.S. commercial revenue grew 121%, and the company raised full‑year guidance to around $4.4 billion in revenue, up 53% from 2024. ^[41]

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