Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) ended Monday’s regular session near flat and dipped modestly in after-hours trading as investors weighed a new European government contract renewal against a still-jittery macro backdrop ahead of a heavy U.S. data slate on Tuesday, Dec. 16.
As of 4:29 p.m. ET, PLTR was $182.79 in after-hours trading, down about 0.25%, after closing the regular session at $183.25. [1]
Below is what moved the stock today, what Wall Street is forecasting right now, and the specific catalysts that could drive PLTR when markets reopen Tuesday morning.
PLTR after-hours price action: where Palantir stands tonight
The after-hours move was relatively small, but it matters because Tuesday’s premarket will have to absorb two potential volatility drivers at once:
- Company-specific news (DGSI contract renewal in France), and
- Major U.S. economic releases tied to a delayed-data catch-up week following the federal shutdown disruptions.
Today’s headline: Palantir renews a multi-year contract with France’s DGSI
Early Monday, Palantir announced a three-year renewal of its contract with DGSI, France’s domestic intelligence agency, extending a partnership Palantir said has been ongoing for nearly a decade. [4]
Key details from Palantir’s announcement:
- The renewal covers continued supply of Palantir’s proprietary software platform plus integration, support, and assistance services for deployment and operational use. [5]
- Palantir emphasized the engagement is strictly defined and aligned with French operational and regulatory requirements, and framed it within broader “data governance” and “security/confidentiality” needs. [6]
- Palantir highlighted that its France-based team supported DGSI work around major national events, including the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games. [7]
Why this matters for PLTR shareholders
Even without a disclosed contract value, renewals like this typically signal stickiness in mission-critical deployments. For Palantir, which is often evaluated on its ability to compound durable government relationships while expanding commercial adoption, this is the type of “recurring credibility” headline that can support sentiment—especially during periods when the broader AI trade is being repriced.
Fresh analyst view today: BofA reiterates Buy and keeps a $255 price target
One of the most-circulated pieces of Palantir analysis published Monday came from Bank of America Securities, which reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a $255 price target after meetings with Palantir executives in South Korea. [8]
Highlights from the BofA thesis (as reported Monday):
- BofA pointed to continued momentum alongside “enterprise-level AI adoption,” with U.S. Commercial described as the strongest area—supported by backlog dynamics and faster customer progression through Palantir’s “value chain.” [9]
- The note also emphasized potential margin expansion as operating leverage improves with each additional use case across segments. [10]
- BofA referenced Palantir’s recent U.S. Navy ShipOS award (up to $448 million) as consistent with U.S. industrial policy priorities. [11]
At Monday’s closing price, a $255 target implies roughly 39% upside from $183.25—an aggressive stance that stands out given the broader Street’s more cautious consensus (next section).
The Street’s consensus forecast: “Hold,” with an average target below the current price
While BofA is bullish, the broader analyst community is notably more conservative right now.
MarketBeat’s latest aggregation shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- 23 analyst ratings total: 2 Sell, 17 Hold, 4 Buy [12]
- Average 12‑month price target: $172.28 (about ‑5.99% downside from $183.25) [13]
- Target range is extremely wide:$18.50 (low) to $255.00 (high) [14]
How to read this split
This is the core tension around Palantir heading into Tuesday:
- Bull case: Palantir keeps converting AI “platform” demand into high-margin revenue, with durable government wins and expanding commercial penetration. [15]
- Bear/neutral case: Even if execution remains strong, many analysts appear to believe the stock is already priced for exceptional outcomes, limiting additional upside without new “step-change” catalysts. [16]
Institutional and insider signals investors are watching tonight
A MarketBeat filing-based roundup published Monday added two additional angles investors often track into the open:
- Institutional ownership / filings: Anchor Investment Management LLC disclosed it boosted its stake significantly in Q2 (per the report’s summary of filings). [17]
- Insider selling: The same report noted insiders sold ~1,008,844 shares worth ~$164.7 million in the last quarter (while still owning 12.93% per the report). [18]
The takeaway isn’t automatically bullish or bearish—Palantir has long had active insider selling narratives—but with PLTR at elevated levels in 2025, any insider activity tends to get amplified in market conversation.
Options and technical posture: mixed-to-bullish signals, with notable “bearish” prints
Unusual options activity printed today
Benzinga’s unusual options feed flagged multiple notable trades on Dec. 15, including:
- A bearish put sweep at $175 strike expiring Jan. 16, 2026 (timestamped 3:34 p.m. ET). [19]
- Earlier call sweeps in the $70–$77.50 region for Jan. 16, 2026 were labeled neutral in that feed. [20]
Options prints don’t equal direction by themselves (large trades can be hedges), but the presence of sizeable bearish-labeled activity near the close can matter if premarket volatility spikes on Tuesday’s macro data.
Technical indicators (as of today)
Investing.com’s technical dashboard for PLTR showed a somewhat contradictory picture:
- Overall daily signal listed as “Strong Buy” [21]
- RSI (14): ~46.96 (Neutral) [22]
- MACD: Buy [23]
- Moving averages were mixed (the page shows multiple sells across key MAs even while other indicators skew bullish). [24]
If you’re watching levels into Tuesday, that “mixed but not overbought” setup is often where the stock can become macro-driven rather than purely chart-driven.
The biggest catalyst before Tuesday’s open: delayed U.S. jobs and retail sales data
Palantir is frequently traded as a high-beta AI bellwether, meaning it can move sharply when yields, growth expectations, or “risk-on/risk-off” sentiment swings. Tuesday morning has the ingredients for exactly that.
What hits at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 16
Due to the after-effects of the historic U.S. government shutdown and delayed releases, the market is bracing for catch-up economic data:
- Employment Situation (Nov. 2025) is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS schedule). [25]
- The BLS has also warned that shutdown disruptions mean some key details will be missing, including the fact that October’s unemployment rate won’t be published (Reuters report and BLS guidance). [26]
- Retail sales releases originally scheduled for Nov. 14 were rescheduled to Dec. 16 (U.S. Census Bureau retail release schedule). [27]
Why PLTR traders care:
- A “hotter” read on jobs/spending can lift yields and pressure long-duration growth multiples; a “cooler” read can do the opposite.
- With the data potentially incomplete or “noisier” than usual, markets may react more violently to surprises—or to revisions and caveats.
Reuters underscored that the delayed jobs and CPI pipeline this week includes unprecedented gaps, including the missing October unemployment rate and complications around inflation data collection. [28]
Broader Palantir context: government momentum vs. valuation debate
Today’s DGSI renewal adds to a string of public-sector headlines that have supported Palantir’s narrative in 2025.
In recent days, coverage has highlighted:
- Palantir’s U.S. Navy ShipOS work (reported as a contract worth up to $448 million) as a meaningful defense catalyst. [29]
- Ongoing controversy and litigation risk around talent and competition in the AI space, including reporting on Palantir’s legal actions involving a rival AI firm. [30]
- Continued AI-infrastructure positioning: Reuters previously reported Palantir’s “Chain Reaction” initiative tied to U.S. AI data center buildouts with partners including Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy. [31]
Still, the valuation debate persists—one reason the consensus rating remains “Hold” even while the company continues to land renewals and large contracts. [32]
What to watch in PLTR before the market opens Tuesday
Here’s a practical checklist for the hours between now and Tuesday’s opening bell:
1) Premarket reaction to the DGSI renewal headline
Because Palantir issued the DGSI news early Monday, the “fresh” reaction may be muted—but it can re-enter focus if broader markets stabilize and investors rotate back into AI. [33]
2) 8:30 a.m. ET macro shock risk (jobs + rescheduled retail sales)
This is the biggest near-term driver for index futures, yields, and AI multiples—and likely for PLTR’s premarket range. [34]
3) Watch for narrative whiplash due to “noisy” shutdown-impacted data
Reuters has already cautioned that the delayed reports will have gaps and unusual methodology constraints, which can change how traders interpret an initial headline number. [35]
4) Analyst commentary and target reiterations
BofA’s $255 target is the standout bullish call from today, but consensus targets remain lower than the current price—creating a “push/pull” dynamic that can fuel volatility on big data days. [36]
5) Options positioning
If you see heavy premarket movement, keep an eye on whether activity clusters around strikes like $175 (puts) and near-dated calls highlighted in today’s unusual options feed. [37]
Bottom line for tonight
Palantir enters Tuesday with:
- A fresh European intelligence contract renewal that reinforces the durability of its government footprint, [38]
- A high-profile bullish reiteration from BofA, [39]
- But also a “Hold” consensus and an average Street target below the current stock price, [40]
- And a potentially market-moving 8:30 a.m. ET macro event risk tied to delayed U.S. data releases. [41]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.benzinga.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.bls.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.census.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.wsj.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.businesswire.com, 34. www.bls.gov, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.benzinga.com, 38. www.businesswire.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.bls.gov
