PayPal (PYPL) Stock on November 29, 2025: Big-Money Buying, AI Deals, BNPL Expansion and a New Dividend

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) enters the final stretch of 2025 as one of the market’s most hotly debated fintech stocks. The share price is down sharply for the year, yet a wave of institutional money, a landmark AI partnership with OpenAI, a renewed multi‑billion‑euro BNPL deal with KKR, and the company’s first-ever dividend are all reshaping the investment story.

Below is a deep dive into where PayPal stock stands today, what changed on 29 November 2025, and what long‑term investors should watch next.

PayPal stock today: price, performance and valuation

On Friday, 28 November 2025, PayPal shares opened around $62.67, leaving the company with a market capitalization in the high‑$50‑billion range and a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 12.5. Key balance sheet metrics include a debt‑to‑equity ratio of about 0.56 and current/quick ratios of 1.34, signposting a solid liquidity position. ^[1]

Despite a recent bounce, the stock has had a rough year. According to analysis referenced by Zacks, PYPL is down about 27.5% year‑to‑date, pressured by macro uncertainty and intensifying competition from rivals such as Visa and Mastercard. At the same time, PayPal trades at a forward 12‑month P/E of roughly 10–11, about half the multiple of the broader financial transaction services industry, and far below the 25–29x range at which Visa and Mastercard change hands. ^[2]

That disconnect between fundamentals and valuation is a big reason PayPal keeps popping up on “bargain” and “undervalued growth stock” lists, even as Wall Street’s official rating on the shares sits at a cautious “Hold”, with 16 Buy, 18 Hold and 4 Sell ratings and an average price target around $82. ^[3]

What happened on 29 November 2025: a wall of institutional money

While there were no new company‑level earnings or product announcements on 29 November 2025, the date brought a flood of 13F‑based headlines showing how big money repositioned around PYPL in the second quarter. These filings are backward‑looking (they show positions as of June 30, 2025), but they matter because they reveal which side of the trade major asset managers chose at much lower prices.

Here are the key moves disclosed in articles published on 29 November:

Norges Bank takes a billion‑dollar stake

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, initiated a new position of 12,400,026 PayPal shares, valued at about $921.6 million at the time of the filing. That stake equates to roughly 1.3% of the company’s outstanding shares. ^[4]

For a conservative institution like Norges Bank to commit close to a billion dollars signals confidence that PayPal’s long‑term earnings power is stronger than its current share price suggests.

Loomis Sayles quietly adds to a large core position

Active manager Loomis Sayles & Co. L.P. boosted its already‑sizeable stake by 103,718 shares in Q2, bringing its total holding to 6,522,748 shares, or about 0.68% of PayPal, worth roughly $484.8 million at quarter‑end. ^[5]

This isn’t a speculative nibble; Loomis is treating PayPal as a core position and modestly averaging in, even as the stock trades near the lower half of its 52‑week range ($55.85–$93.66). ^[6]

Russell Investments increases exposure

Russell Investments Group Ltd. raised its position in PayPal by 12.6% in Q2, adding 66,817 shares to reach 595,884 shares in total, valued at about $44.2 million and representing roughly 0.06% of the company. ^[7]

As a multi‑asset manager that often uses systematic and benchmark‑aware strategies, Russell’s move suggests PayPal’s risk‑reward profile has become attractive enough to warrant an overweight versus prior allocations.

Groupama Asset Management leans in

French manager Groupama Asset Managment (their spelling) increased its stake by 56.9%, acquiring an additional 15,148 shares to own 41,780 shares valued around $3.08 million. ^[8]

While the absolute size is small, the percentage increase is notable; Groupama appears to be building a position rather than trimming into weakness.

Korea Investment CORP trims its stake

Counterbalancing the buyers, Korea Investment CORPreduced its PayPal position by 26%, selling 183,479 shares during Q2. It now holds 523,462 shares, about 0.05% of the company, valued at roughly $38.9 million. ^[9]

This shows not all sovereign players are aligned—some are still de‑risking or reallocating capital after PayPal’s multi‑year drawdown.

The bottom line on institutional flows

Across these filings, MarketBeat calculates that around 68% of PayPal’s stock is now in the hands of hedge funds and other institutional investors. ^[10]

For individual investors, that concentration cuts both ways:

It supports the “undervalued” thesis, as deep‑pocketed firms are clearly willing to commit large sums.
It also means sentiment can turn quickly if institutions decide in unison that better opportunities lie elsewhere.

Remember: 13F data is delayed by several months, so these trades happened before the latest OpenAI deal, KKR BNPL announcement, and November price moves. Still, they set the backdrop for how “smart money” is thinking about PayPal.

Fundamentals: Q3 2025 earnings, guidance and the first dividend

The institutional interest would be harder to justify without solid fundamentals—and PayPal delivered a beat‑and‑raise quarter this autumn.

According to PayPal’s Q3 2025 results and coverage from Reuters, LeverageShares and Investopedia: ^[11]

Revenue: about $8.4–8.42 billion, up roughly 6–7% year‑over‑year, topping consensus estimates near $8.2 billion.
Adjusted EPS:$1.34, up around 12% versus $1.20 a year ago and ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $1.20–1.21.
Total payment volume (TPV): about $458.1 billion, up roughly 7–8% year‑on‑year, showing that the transaction engine is still growing even in a slower macro environment.
Profitability: Net margin near 15% and return on equity around 25–26% underline that this is a highly profitable franchise, even with moderate top‑line growth. ^[12]

Management didn’t stop at an earnings beat. PayPal:

Raised full‑year 2025 non‑GAAP EPS guidance to $5.35–$5.39, up from $5.15–$5.30 previously and above the ~$5.24 consensus at the time. ^[13]
Issued Q4 EPS guidance of roughly $1.27–$1.31; Reuters noted that the midpoint was slightly below some Street expectations near $1.31, which tempered some of the initial share‑price euphoria. ^[14]

A new dividend era

For the first time in its 27‑year history, PayPal declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share, payable on 10 December 2025 to shareholders of record on 19 November. At recent prices, that works out to a yield of about 0.9%, with a payout ratio around 10–11% of adjusted earnings—low enough to leave ample room for reinvestment and future hikes. ^[15]

Income‑oriented analysts see this as more than a token gesture. A Seeking Alpha piece published this week labeled PayPal a “potential dividend growth champion”, arguing that rising profitability, a modest payout ratio and a sturdy balance sheet could support steady increases over time. ^[16]

Growth drivers: AI, BNPL and international expansion

Beyond the quarter’s numbers, three strategic pillars stand out for PayPal: agentic AI commerce, buy‑now‑pay‑later (BNPL) partnerships and geographic expansion.

1. AI and the OpenAI / ChatGPT partnership

On 28 October 2025, PayPal announced a major partnership with OpenAI that will let ChatGPT users check out using PayPal and its Venmo network directly inside the app. Reuters reported that the news sent the stock up about 10% in a single session, as investors cheered both the AI angle and the accompanying guidance raise and dividend announcement. ^[17]

Key elements of the deal, as described by PayPal and summarized by Investopedia, include: ^[18]

ChatGPT users will be able to discover products and pay with PayPal in just a few taps, effectively turning conversations into commerce.
Merchants in PayPal’s global network will be able to list and sell products inside ChatGPT, tapping into an AI‑driven shopping assistant used by hundreds of millions of people each week.
The partnership is part of PayPal’s broader “agentic commerce” strategy—AI agents that research, compare and buy on behalf of consumers. PayPal is also working with other AI chat operators such as Perplexity and Google.

If agentic commerce takes off, embedding PayPal as the default checkout layer inside popular AI tools could generate incremental payment volume and strengthen PayPal’s role as a trusted intermediary.

2. BNPL: renewed KKR deal for European receivables

On 17 November 2025, Reuters reported that KKR will purchase up to €65 billion (about $75.4 billion) of PayPal’s European BNPL loans under a renewed agreement that includes a replenishing loan commitment of up to €6 billion. ^[19]

The arrangement builds on a 2023 partnership in which KKR’s credit funds acquired most of PayPal’s European BNPL receivables. The new deal:

Allows PayPal to shift capital‑intensive BNPL assets off its balance sheet while still controlling underwriting, servicing and customer relationships.
Is already baked into the company’s Q4 and full‑year profit guidance, according to Reuters, reducing uncertainty about the impact on earnings. ^[20]

BNPL remains a high‑growth segment, especially among younger shoppers, but regulators are scrutinizing it closely. Using KKR’s asset‑based finance platform lets PayPal stay in the game without carrying the full credit risk.

3. UK relaunch and PayPal+ loyalty push

On 12 November 2025, CoinCentral reported that PayPal is fully re‑launching its operations in the United Kingdom after nearly two years of restructuring post‑Brexit. ^[21]

The UK relaunch includes:

New debit cards for British customers with no international transaction fees.
PayPal‑branded credit cards in the UK market.
Rollout of the PayPal+ loyalty program, rewarding users for everyday spending.

The move effectively restores PayPal’s UK offering to parity with other major markets and positions the company to recapture cross‑border spend from British travelers and online shoppers.

4. Venmo and branded experiences as growth engines

Zacks’ recent analysis highlights Venmo and PayPal’s branded checkout experiences as crucial growth drivers: Venmo revenue grew about 20% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025, with total payment volume up 14%, and Venmo debit‑card activity and “Pay with Venmo” usage are both rising quickly. ^[22]

Together with PayPal’s in‑store tap‑to‑pay and omni‑channel initiatives, these segments are expanding PayPal’s reach beyond pure online checkout and deepening engagement with younger, digitally native users.

Is PayPal stock undervalued?

A big part of the PYPL debate comes down to valuation and narrative.

Wall Street consensus: cautious but constructive

MarketBeat’s aggregation shows an overall “Hold” rating, with 16 Buys, 18 Holds and 4 Sells, and an average price target of about $82, implying upside of roughly 30% from the high‑$60s to low‑$60s trading range. ^[23]
Zacks assigns PayPal a Rank #3 (Hold) but notes that EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher, with consensus earnings of $5.34 per share in 2025 and $5.87 in 2026, representing growth of about 15% and 10% respectively. ^[24]

Independent valuation work: deep discount indicated

Simply Wall St applies an “Excess Returns” model and a fair‑PE framework, concluding that: ^[25]

PayPal’s intrinsic value is around $119.83 per share, implying that the stock is roughly 48% undervalued versus recent prices.
The shares trade at a P/E of 11.8x, below both the sector average (~13.6x) and their estimated “fair” P/E of 17.4x, based on forward earnings growth and risk profile.

In other words, if PayPal merely performs in line with consensus expectations—and avoids major missteps—there is potentially significant upside from current levels.

Dividend and balance sheet: fuel for total returns

With a payout ratio near 10% of adjusted earnings and strong free‑cash‑flow generation, PayPal has room to both raise the dividend over time and repurchase shares, amplifying per‑share earnings growth. ^[26]

Some analysts, including those covered by LeverageShares, also point to newly raised price targets like Oppenheimer’s $130 target—roughly 70–80% above current levels—as evidence that at least part of Wall Street sees PayPal as a mispriced quality compounder. ^[27]

Key risks to the PayPal thesis

Even bulls acknowledge that PayPal’s path isn’t risk‑free. Among the biggest overhangs:

1. Macro headwinds and pressured basket sizes

On the same October earnings day that PayPal unveiled its OpenAI partnership, CFO Jamie Miller told analysts that average order values were trending lower in both the U.S. and Europe as consumers became more selective amid inflation and tariff‑related uncertainty. Reuters noted that the stock gave back part of its initial post‑earnings surge as investors digested the comments. ^[28]

If discretionary spending weakens further, transaction growth could slow, especially in higher‑ticket categories.

2. Competitive intensity

Zacks points out that competitors like Visa and Mastercard have continued to outperform PayPal’s stock in 2025 and are aggressively expanding their own digital payment solutions. ^[29]

Add in Apple Pay, Google Pay, Square/Block, Stripe and a host of regional fintechs, and it’s clear PayPal must keep innovating just to defend its share of online checkout and digital wallets.

3. Cybersecurity and reputational risk

In August, cybersecurity outlet The420.in reported that a dataset allegedly containing login credentials for roughly 16 million PayPal users surfaced on dark‑web forums. Hackers claimed the trove was stolen in May 2025; PayPal denied any new breach, saying the data likely stemmed from older malware‑driven thefts. ^[30]

Even if PayPal’s systems weren’t newly compromised, recurring headlines about credential dumps can erode user trust and invite regulatory scrutiny. Any genuine large‑scale breach would be a serious blow to the brand and could trigger fines and customer churn.

4. Execution risk on new initiatives

The success of:

Agentic commerce (AI shopping through ChatGPT and other bots),
The KKR BNPL deal, and
Expansion in markets like the UK

will depend on flawless execution, regulator comfort and user adoption. If these initiatives under‑deliver, the market could reassess the generous fair‑value models underpinning some bullish cases.

What PayPal investors should watch next

For traders and long‑term investors following PYPL, the next checkpoints include:

Holiday spending & Q4 results: Management has flagged cautious shoppers and smaller basket sizes; how TPV trends through Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas will shape 2026 guidance. ^[31]
Adoption of ChatGPT and other AI commerce flows: Any early usage metrics, merchant case studies or expanded AI partnerships will help quantify how real the “agentic commerce” opportunity is. ^[32]
BNPL credit performance: Investors will watch for signs of rising delinquencies, even with KKR taking on the bulk of European receivables. ^[33]
Dividend policy and capital returns: Future increases in the $0.14 quarterly dividend or new buyback programs would reinforce the “shareholder‑friendly” narrative. ^[34]
Further institutional flows: Today’s 13F updates show strong second‑quarter accumulation by major funds; mid‑2026 filings will reveal whether that conviction persists.

Takeaway: PayPal stock in late 2025

As of 29 November 2025, PayPal stock sits in a familiar tension:

The bear case focuses on slowing growth, fierce competition and macro pressure on discretionary spending. ^[35]
The bull case leans on robust profitability, a low valuation, a fortress‑like two‑sided network, fresh AI and BNPL partnerships, a full UK relaunch, and now a dividend that could grow for years. ^[36]

The latest wave of 13F filings suggests that many large institutions are siding—at least cautiously—with the bulls, adding or initiating sizable positions at current levels. ^[37]

For individual investors, whether PayPal is a buy, hold or avoid will depend on risk tolerance and time horizon. But with a beaten‑down share price, rising earnings, and high‑profile partnerships in AI and BNPL, PYPL remains one of the most closely watched turnaround and value stories in fintech.

Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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