PayPal Stock (PYPL) Holds Near $60 Into the Weekend as Analysts Debate Checkout Growth, Venmo Momentum, and PayPal Bank Plan

NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 3:48 p.m. ET — Market closed (U.S. weekend) ^[1]

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) stock is heading into the weekend with shares hovering just under the psychologically important $60 level after a quiet final stretch of holiday trading. The stock’s most recently reported price stands at $59.97, down about 0.12% versus the prior close, with the last recorded session range roughly spanning the high-$59s to low-$60s. ^[2]

With U.S. equity markets closed Saturday, investors are shifting their focus from intraday price action to what could move PayPal when trading reopens Monday—particularly the company’s branded checkout trajectory, intensifying competition in digital payments, and the latest Wall Street target resets that have kept sentiment cautious into year-end. ^[3]

Where PayPal stock left off before the weekend

In the most recent regular session (Friday, Dec. 26), PayPal shares closed at $59.97 on volume of about 7.54 million shares, after opening around $60.00 and trading between roughly $59.535 and $60.11 during the day, according to Nasdaq historical data. ^[4]

The broader market backdrop was subdued. In a sector comparison note published Friday, MarketWatch’s data feed referenced a slightly lower S&P 500 and Dow finish on the day, while also flagging PayPal’s modest 0.12% dip in the same session. ^[5]

The last 24–48 hours: limited company-specific headlines, heavier “positioning” tone

Over the last 24–48 hours, PayPal-specific breaking news flow has been relatively light—an unsurprising pattern during the final full weekend before the New Year, when liquidity tends to thin out and “market tape” can be driven as much by positioning as by fundamentals.

That said, the current market narrative matters for PYPL because PayPal trades at the intersection of consumer spending, e-commerce volumes, and risk appetite in growth/fintech. A widely read Investopedia “morning briefing” published Friday highlighted a risk-off tilt in early futures and reiterated that major indexes had recently posted multiple up sessions in holiday-shortened trading—context that can influence how investors treat “turnaround” names into the first trading days of January. ^[6]

Analyst outlook: consensus says “Hold,” but targets suggest meaningful upside

Wall Street’s aggregated view remains mixed rather than outright bearish:

Consensus rating: Hold
Analyst count (12-month): 40 ratings
Consensus 12-month price target:$78.29 (implying roughly 30% upside from ~$60)
Target range:$56 to $101 (wide dispersion, signaling disagreement on execution and competitive durability) ^[7]

This split is one reason PYPL can appear “rangebound” even as catalysts emerge: investors can point to inexpensive valuation metrics and PayPal’s scale on one side, and to competitive pressure plus uncertain branded-checkout reacceleration on the other.

A key recent theme: branded checkout growth expectations are being revised down

One of the most concrete pieces of analyst work in late December came from Mizuho, which lowered its price target to $75 from $84 while maintaining an Outperform rating, according to a report summarized by Investing.com. The note tied the reset to comments attributed to PayPal’s CFO during a December fireside chat indicating that fourth-quarter branded checkout growth would be “at least a couple of points slower” than third-quarter levels. ^[8]

In other words: the debate isn’t whether PayPal can grow—it’s how quickly it can rebuild momentum in its highest-profile consumer product (branded checkout) while defending take rates and margins.

UBS: another target cut into year-end

MarketBeat’s compiled analyst log also shows UBS (analyst Timothy Chiodo) cutting its target to $65 from $80 in late December. ^[9]

Whether investors agree with the target or not, the direction of revisions matters: multiple downward target moves close together can weigh on sentiment, especially when a stock is hovering near a round-number level like $60.

Morgan Stanley’s bearish framing: competition + “agentic commerce” risk

A TipRanks commentary piece published within the past day pointed to Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette outlining a set of concerns that center on branded checkout share pressure, the difficulty of major checkout upgrades (described as “slow and complex”), and future platform competitiveness as AI-driven commerce evolves. ^[10]

Notably, even bulls increasingly frame PayPal’s next phase through the lens of new buying experiences—AI-assisted shopping, automated purchasing workflows, and deeper integrations—where the winners may be those with the smoothest developer and platform rails, not only the biggest consumer wallet footprint.

What PayPal is doing strategically: banking expansion and product execution

While the stock has been choppy, PayPal has continued to pursue longer-horizon initiatives that could reshape its economics.

PayPal Bank proposal

On Dec. 15, 2025, PayPal announced it submitted applications to establish “PayPal Bank,” a proposed Utah-chartered industrial loan company, with filings to the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the FDIC. The company said the bank would focus on improving the efficiency of providing business lending solutions and could also offer interest-bearing savings accounts; PayPal added that customer deposits would be eligible for FDIC insurance coverage if approved. ^[11]

CEO Alex Chriss framed the move around small business credit access, saying, “Securing capital remains a significant hurdle for small businesses striving to grow and scale.” ^[12]

For investors, the bank application is important not just as a headline, but as a signal: PayPal is aiming to reduce reliance on third parties and potentially tighten control over parts of the lending and settlement stack—moves that can influence margin structure over time.

Capital return: dividend initiation

PayPal has also pushed further into shareholder returns. In an Oct. 28 filing, the company disclosed that its board approved the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend program and declared a $0.14 per share dividend payable on Dec. 10, 2025, while noting future dividends would remain subject to market conditions and board approval. ^[13]

That policy shift can matter for how different investor cohorts value the stock—particularly as fintech names mature and the market places a premium on disciplined capital allocation.

Regulatory and reputational overhangs: New Hampshire settlement still on radar

Although it falls just outside the strict 48-hour window, one late-week headline that some investors may still be digesting is a New Hampshire Attorney General’s Office settlement involving PayPal.

A WMUR report (updated Dec. 24) said a state investigation found alleged violations of consumer protection laws tied to marketing and disclosures, and that PayPal agreed to make changes to its electronic payment platforms (including Venmo) and to pay $1.75 million as part of the settlement. ^[14]

For shareholders, the near-term financial impact is modest, but regulatory scrutiny can influence brand trust and adds another item to monitor—especially in payments, where consumer protections are central to product adoption.

What investors should watch before Monday’s next session

With the market closed for the weekend, here are the practical items that can shape PayPal’s first trading day back:

1) Liquidity and “year-end tape” effects

The final trading days of December often bring unusual flows—tax positioning, window dressing, and lighter participation. That can amplify moves in heavily owned or heavily debated names like PayPal, even without new headlines.

2) Analyst revisions and narrative momentum

Recent target cuts and mixed ratings mean PYPL can move quickly on any incremental data point—channel checks, e-commerce read-throughs, or a single major firm changing its stance. Watch especially for any follow-up notes that sharpen expectations for branded checkout growth and transaction margin trends. ^[15]

3) Competitive headlines in digital payments

Morgan Stanley’s critique—and the broader market’s focus—keeps attention on competitive pressure from other checkout and wallet ecosystems. If rival platforms announce new merchant integrations, AI-shopping features, or pricing changes, investors often treat that as “read-across” to PayPal’s take-rate and share assumptions. ^[16]

4) The next big fundamental catalyst: earnings

Investors are already looking toward PayPal’s next earnings report in early February. MarketBeat lists PayPal’s next report date as estimated for Feb. 3, 2026 (before market open), based on prior schedules (with the company not yet confirming). ^[17]

Given how tightly the recent analyst debate has centered on branded checkout growth, that segment’s commentary—and forward guidance—could be the biggest single driver of whether PYPL can sustainably reclaim and hold levels above $60.

5) Know the calendar: New Year’s market schedule

As investors plan trades and risk management into year-end and early January, it helps to remember market hours and closures. NYSE materials list core U.S. equity session hours as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended sessions available in certain NYSE venues out to 8:00 p.m. ET. ^[18]

For the holiday week ahead, Investopedia’s schedule recap notes that U.S. markets will be open for a full day on Dec. 31 and closed on Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day. ^[19]

Bottom line for PYPL heading into Monday

PayPal stock is ending the week in a familiar spot—near $60, with valuation and upside-target math attracting bargain hunters, while skeptical analyst commentary keeps conviction in check. The most important near-term issue is not whether PayPal has strategic initiatives (it does), but whether execution—especially in branded checkout and broader platform integration—shows up consistently enough in forward guidance to reverse the trend of target cuts.

Until then, investors should expect PYPL to trade as a “prove-it” story: sensitive to sentiment, sensitive to competitive headlines, and capable of sharp moves when expectations reset—particularly in thin year-end conditions. ^[20]