New York, February 2, 2026, 21:36 EST — Market closed
- PayPal slipped 0.7% to finish at $52.33 on Monday.
- The payments company is set to release its quarterly earnings ahead of Tuesday’s market open.
- Wall Street zeroes in on branded checkout trends and margin forecasts for 2026.
Shares of PayPal Holdings, Inc. slipped 0.7% to end Monday at $52.33 as investors positioned themselves ahead of the digital payments firm’s quarterly earnings report set for release before Tuesday’s market open. (MarketWatch)
This report is crucial, with PayPal’s shares stuck close to their lows. The market has little patience for any sign of shrinking market share or delayed profit gains. This quarter stands out as one of the rare near-term moments that could shift outlooks significantly, one way or the other.
Analysts tracked by Investing.com are forecasting earnings of $1.29 per share on $8.79 billion in revenue for the quarter ending December 2025. The focus is on “branded checkout” — those PayPal and Venmo buttons used on merchant sites — to see if growth decelerates to 2%–3%, pressured by rivals like Apple Pay and Stripe ramping up their checkout presence. The report also highlighted “transaction margin dollars,” a key profit metric, as a crucial figure for guidance. (Investing.com Canada)
PayPal’s action coincided with a rise in U.S. stocks on Monday, the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. (AP News)
PayPal faces familiar pressure. Investors demand proof that checkout upgrades are being implemented more quickly and that these improvements actually boost conversion—the percentage of shoppers who finish a purchase after reaching the payment screen.
Investors will also eye management’s upcoming targets and how the company intends to juggle spending on product updates with the goal of boosting profitability. If costs rise as quickly as revenue, the numbers become tougher to reconcile.
The downside scenario is pretty clear. If branded checkout continues to slow, or if competition pushes PayPal to ramp up incentives and marketing, margins could shrink even if payment volumes stay steady. A cautious 2026 outlook would probably keep the stock under pressure.
PayPal is pushing forward with its “agentic commerce” strategy, using AI-powered tools to assist shoppers in discovering products and completing purchases. Back in January, the company announced plans to buy Cymbio, with executive vice president Michelle Gill noting that bringing Cymbio’s technology and team onboard will boost their agentic commerce efforts. (PayPal Investor Relations)
The company will hold its fourth-quarter earnings webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday. (PayPal Investor Relations)
Traders are holding steady for Tuesday’s update—a clear look at branded checkout trends, margin insights, and the 2026 outlook tone. That report and the accompanying call will be the next big trigger.
