WASHINGTON, March 17, 2026, 20:48 EDT.
Mortgage rates in the U.S. are back on the rise, erasing last month’s brief dip below 6% and casting a shadow over the early spring homebuying window. On Tuesday, Mortgage News Daily pegged the 30-year fixed benchmark at 6.29%, ticking up after breaking above 6.40% last week. Freddie Mac’s survey, meanwhile, landed at 6.11% for the week ending March 12.
The timing is significant, with the market only recently showing signs of life after a long stretch of sluggish sales. Signed contracts on existing homes moved up 1.8% in February. In California, sales jumped 7.0% from January, a move helped by modestly lower borrowing costs that nudged some buyers off the sidelines.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, pointed to “improved affordability conditions” as the reason for the pickup, but flagged the risk of a reversal if mortgage rates climb on the back of higher oil prices. Pending sales in the West climbed 0.9% from the previous month and 3.2% year-over-year, with San Diego, San Jose, and Sacramento ranking among the top-performing large metro areas. National Association of REALTORS®
California numbers followed the same trend. The California Association of Realtors reported February single-family home sales at an annual rate of 274,820, with the median price ticking up 0.9% from January to hit $830,370. In the Bay Area, sales climbed 4.0% from a year ago, but statewide figures still haven’t cracked 300,000 for the 41st consecutive month.
Tamara Suminski, president of the group, noted that the market picked up steam in February; however, she flagged ongoing Middle East tensions as a potential reason for buyers and sellers to pause. Jordan Levine, chief economist, pointed to the latest spike in mortgage rates as another headwind for spring demand, especially given how limited inventory remains.
Redfin’s Chen Zhao, who leads economics research for the firm, spoke with SFGATE about changing buyer patterns in Northern California. According to Zhao, buyers have started reacting to both rate swings and rising fuel expenses. “Nothing affects consumer sentiment like gas prices,” Zhao noted, suggesting that shoppers could start holding back. SFGATE
Supply hasn’t eased the pressure. The NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder sentiment index ticked up to 38 in March, according to Reuters on Monday, but that’s still 23 months straight under the 50 line. “On the fence” is how NAHB Chairman Bill Owens described today’s buyers—most still holding out for rate cuts and steadier signals. Builders haven’t been shy about trying to move inventory: 37% knocked down prices, 64% dangled sales incentives. Costs for land, labor, and materials? Still stubbornly high. Reuters
Realtor.com analyst Hannah Jones flagged potential “headwinds” for the spring housing market—citing the Middle East conflict, inflation, and tariffs as likely culprits for keeping mortgage rates and building costs stubbornly high. Mortgage rates move in step with the 10-year Treasury yield, not so much the Fed’s benchmark, so housing remains vulnerable to sharp moves in oil and bond markets, regardless of expectations for the central bank to hold rates steady this Wednesday. Reuters
The durability of the bounce hinges on how soon rates settle down. According to C.A.R., a return of confidence is possible—if things smooth out. But high oil and rising yields could knock February’s momentum off track. Economists polled by Reuters are sticking with their call for a 1.8% increase in U.S. home prices this year.
