Pembina Pipeline (TSX:PPL, NYSE:PBA) Stock: Dividend Yield, Q3 Earnings Miss and LNG Growth – December 3, 2025 Update

Updated: December 3, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s stock is back on radar for dividend investors and energy‑infrastructure watchers. As of early trading on December 3, 2025, the Canadian midstream giant is trading near its 52‑week mid‑range with a chunky yield, a recent earnings miss, but increasingly clear long‑term growth from LNG and data‑center‑driven demand. ^[1]

Below is a round‑up of the most important news, forecasts and analyses on Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PPL/PBA) as of December 3, 2025, and what they mean for investors.

Quick snapshot: Pembina Pipeline stock today

• TSX:PPL (Canada):
  • Recent price: about C$54.1 (close on December 3, 2025). ^[2]
  • 52‑week range: roughly C$48 – C$59. ^[3]
  • Market cap: about C$31–32 billion. ^[4]
  • Valuation: ~19x trailing P/E, ~18x forward P/E, price‑to‑sales ~3.9x. ^[5]
• NYSE:PBA (U.S. listing):
  • Intraday price on Dec 3, 2025: about US$38.9.
  • 52‑week range: US$34.13 – US$42.40. ^[6]
  • Market cap: roughly US$22–22.5 billion. ^[7]

On both exchanges, Pembina trades like a steady, low‑beta income stock (beta ~0.75–0.8) with modest but visible growth. ^[8]

Fresh December 3, 2025 headlines: big buyer in, some sellers out

Norges Bank builds a 1%+ position

A key piece of “smart money” news today: Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, disclosed a new stake of 6.11 million shares in Pembina Pipeline, worth about US$229.6 million, giving it roughly 1.05% ownership at the end of the reported quarter. ^[9]

That filing also notes:

• Around 55% of Pembina’s stock is held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[10]
• Analysts tracked by MarketBeat collectively rate PBA/PPL a “Moderate Buy.” ^[11]

Korea Investment Corp and Quadrature Capital trim their stakes

On the flip side, other institutional holders have been taking profits or reallocating:

• Korea Investment Corp cut its Pembina position by 42% in Q2, selling about 148,000 shares and retaining roughly 203,900 shares worth about US$7.6 million. ^[12]
• Quadrature Capital Ltd slashed its holdings by 95.6%, selling around 296,300 shares and keeping just 13,700 shares worth about US$514,000. ^[13]

These moves highlight that not all institutional money is marching in the same direction: some are building a long‑term position (Norges), while others are de‑risking or rotating out after the recent rebound in the share price.

Q3 2025 earnings: headline miss, guidance nudged higher

Earnings miss on EPS and revenue

Pembina’s Q3 2025 results, released November 6, disappointed on the headline numbers:

• Net income: about C$286 million, down ~26% from the prior‑year quarter (~C$385 million). ^[14]
• EPS: around C$0.43–0.47 per share, versus consensus closer to C$0.60; U.S.‑dollar PBA EPS was about US$0.31, missing the US$0.45 estimate (a ~31% negative surprise). ^[15]
• Revenue: roughly C$1.79 billion, below last year and below a ~C$2.07 billion FactSet forecast; MarketBeat cites approximately US$911 million vs. US$1.42 billion consensus on a translated basis. ^[16]

The primary drivers of the miss were:

• Accounting and one‑off factors, including gains from a pipeline sale offset by higher depreciation due to changes in asset lifespans. ^[17]
• Weaker Marketing & New Ventures performance, with adjusted EBITDA down ~38% year‑over‑year on lower NGL margins and derivative impacts. ^[18]

Adjusted EBITDA and guidance still solid

Under the hood, core operations looked much steadier:

• Adjusted EBITDA:C$1.034 billion, up about 1% year‑over‑year. ^[19]
• Pipelines division EBITDA: up about 6%, driven by higher tolls (inflation‑indexed) and volumes on the Peace Pipeline, plus stronger volumes on the Nipisi system. ^[20]
• Facilities division EBITDA: up about 9%, helped by contributions from Pembina Gas Infrastructure (PGI) and increased processing volumes. ^[21]

On the back of these results, Pembina tightened and slightly raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of C$4.25–4.35 billion (previously C$4.225–4.425 billion), with a midpoint around C$4.3 billion. ^[22]

The market reaction: despite the miss, shares traded up about 2% around the earnings release as investors focused on steady cash flow and clearer long‑term project visibility. ^[23]

Growth story: Cedar LNG, Alliance expansion and AI‑driven power demand

If you strip away the quarter‑to‑quarter noise, Pembina’s long‑term thesis today is mostly about three things: LNG exports, pipeline recontracting, and power‑hungry data centers.

1. Cedar LNG: now 2.5 mtpa of 3.3 mtpa capacity contracted

The headline structural catalyst is the Cedar LNG project on Canada’s West Coast:

• Cedar LNG will be a 3.3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) floating LNG export facility, with an estimated US$4 billion (gross) project cost and an in‑service target of late 2028. ^[24]
• In June 2024, Pembina signed a 20‑year tolling agreement for 1.5 mtpa, which underpinned the project’s final investment decision. ^[25]
• In November 2025, Pembina and PETRONAS announced a second 20‑year agreement for 1.0 mtpa of Cedar LNG capacity, structured as a synthetic liquefaction service on a take‑or‑pay basis. ^[26]

Combined, these deals bring 2.5 mtpa of the 3.3 mtpa capacity under long‑term contracts, leaving 0.8 mtpa to be remarketed – Pembina aims to have definitive agreements for another 0.5 mtpa by the end of 2025. ^[27]

Construction is reported as on time and on budget, with:

• Hull and topsides construction on the floating LNG vessel progressing on schedule.
• All pipeline horizontal directional drills completed, materially de‑risking that part of the project.
• Onshore and marine‑terminal work advancing, including retaining wall construction and right‑of‑way clearing. ^[28]

For investors, Cedar LNG adds a large, long‑term, largely contracted fee‑for‑service revenue stream that is relatively insulated from commodity prices, while leveraging Pembina’s gas and NGL infrastructure.

2. Alliance Pipeline expansion and WCSB recontracting

Pembina has also been shoring up its base business in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB):

• It has recontracted substantially all volumes up for renewal in 2025–2026 on its conventional systems, notably the Peace Pipeline, including about 50,000 barrels per day of renewed and new volumes on long‑term contracts (average ~10‑year terms). ^[29]
• On the Alliance Pipeline, a negotiated settlement introduced a new 10‑year term‑differentiated toll, and shippers elected that long‑term option on roughly 96% of the 1.325 bcf/d firm capacity effective November 1, 2025 – significantly extending the franchise’s contracted life. ^[30]

Looking forward, Alliance is studying a short‑haul expansion that would add up to 350 million cubic feet per day of capacity to Fort Saskatchewan by late 2029, with a binding open season planned for early 2026. ^[31]

3. AI data center and the Greenlight Electricity Centre

Pembina is also hitching itself to the AI and data‑center infrastructure boom:

• A GuruFocus report in October highlighted that PBA shares jumped ~6% on news of a potential deal with Meta Platforms to develop a large AI data center in Alberta, supported by Kineticor for natural‑gas‑fired power and potentially Beacon AI for technological integration. ^[32]
• Gas would be supplied via Pembina’s Alliance Pipeline, which the company already plans to expand by 2029 to support this and other demand. ^[33]

Separately, Pembina and Kineticor are advancing the Greenlight Electricity Centre, a proposed up to 1,800 MW multi‑phase combined‑cycle facility in Alberta:

• A 907 MW power grid allocation has been secured and assigned to a potential customer to support innovation‑related infrastructure as early as 2027. ^[34]
• A supply deal for two gas turbines has been signed, and Pembina targets a final investment decision in the first half of 2026, with Greenlight start‑up around 2030. ^[35]

This project, if sanctioned, would:

• Create incremental natural‑gas and NGL demand in western Canada.
• Offer a new long‑term contracted infrastructure stream.
• Potentially feed high‑power‑density customers like data centers – a theme many midstream and utility stocks are chasing.

Dividend story: high yield, slow growth – and sustainability questions

Current dividend and yield

Pembina remains fundamentally a dividend stock:

• The board declared a Q4 2025 common share dividend of C$0.71, payable December 31, 2025 to shareholders of record December 15, 2025. ^[36]
• On an annualized basis, that’s C$2.84 per share, implying:
  • Roughly 5.0–5.3% yield on the TSX at around C$54–55. ^[37]
  • About 7.3–7.5% yield quoted for the U.S. PBA listing, based on recent articles using its U.S. price and CAD dividend translation. ^[38]

For U.S. investors, the dividend is paid in U.S. dollars on PBA (about US$0.508 per quarter currently) and is generally classified as a qualified dividend, subject to Canadian withholding tax. ^[39]

Track record of dividend growth

Long‑term, Pembina has slow‑and‑steady dividend growth:

• Since 2012, the annual dividend has risen from about C$1.60 to C$2.74+, equating to a typical 3–5% annual growth rate over the last decade. ^[40]
• Dividend.com estimates USD dividend per share of about US$2.02 in 2025, with modest growth forecast into 2026. ^[41]

Payout ratio and sustainability concerns

The good news for income seekers – a big yield – is also a core risk:

• MarketBeat and other sources peg Pembina’s dividend payout ratio at roughly 100–101% of earnings, meaning the dividend essentially consumes all GAAP net income. ^[42]
• Simply Wall St recently flagged “dividend sustainability” as a new minor risk for Pembina, reflecting that tight coverage. ^[43]

Management prefers to measure coverage using cash‑flow metrics (adjusted EBITDA and cash flow from operations) rather than accounting earnings, and on those measures the payout looks more comfortable. But investors should be aware:

• There isn’t a huge buffer if cash flows were to weaken or if capex rose faster than planned.
• At the same time, the balance sheet is still funding large multi‑year projects, from Cedar LNG to Wapiti and Redwater expansions.

For now, most analysts still base their “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” ratings on the view that Pembina’s contracted cash flows can support both the dividend and its capex program – but the lack of margin for error is a recurring theme in third‑party research. ^[44]

Analysts’ price targets and fundamental ratings

TSX:PPL – Canadian listing

Sell‑side consensus on PPL is constructive but not euphoric:

• MarketBeat (12 analysts):
  • Average 12‑month target:C$58.55 (about 8–9% upside from ~C$53.8–54).
  • Range: C$50 – C$65. ^[45]
• TipRanks (7 recently updated analysts):
  • Average target:C$57.76 (~5.8% upside from C$54.58).
  • Range: C$50.29 – C$62.36.
  • Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (4 Buys, 2 Holds, 1 Sell). ^[46]
• Stockchase (expert panel):
  • Over the last year, 32 of 35 expert opinions rated PPL a Buy and 3 a Sell.
  • Several portfolio managers highlight Pembina’s positioning for LNG growth, strong contracted cash flows (roughly 80%+ fee‑for‑service or take‑or‑pay), and long history of dividend growth, while acknowledging recent underperformance versus peers like Enbridge (ENB) and TC Energy (TRP). ^[47]

NYSE:PBA – U.S. listing

For the PBA shares:

• MarketBeat’s latest wrap‑up (December 3) still tags the stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[48]
• PBA’s one‑year price performance has been mixed: it’s trading about +12% above its 52‑week low but still around 10–11% below its high. ^[49]

“Buy on improved growth visibility”

A widely cited Seeking Alpha article (summarized across several data platforms) characterizes Pembina as a “low‑risk, dividend‑focused investment” with:

• Reaffirmed 2025 EBITDA guidance and improved visibility from major projects like Cedar LNG, Alliance expansion and data‑center/power initiatives.
• Strong nine‑month results and robust free cash flow partly offsetting the Q3 softness.
• A Buy rating with an estimated upside of about 20–24% from recent levels, based on its valuation work. ^[50]

While every model uses its own assumptions, the common thread is that most fundamental analysts see modest capital appreciation potential on top of the 5–7% dividend yield, assuming execution goes to plan.

What the quants and technicians are saying

PPL:CA – trading plan and neutral rating

The Stock Traders Daily “Objective long/short report” for December 3, 2025 provides an AI‑assisted trading framework for PPL:CA: ^[51]

• Long‑term trading plan:
  • Buy zone: near C$51.19.
  • Target:C$54.34.
  • Stop‑loss: about C$50.93.
• Short‑term contrarian plan:
  • Short entry: near C$54.34, targeting C$51.19 with a stop just above C$54.61.

Their internal rating for PPL is Neutral across near‑, mid‑, and long‑term horizons, signaling no strong directional edge beyond range trading.

PBA – StockInvest.us upgrades to “Buy candidate”

On the U.S. side, StockInvest.us upgraded PBA to a “Buy candidate” on December 2, 2025: ^[52]

Key points from their technical analysis:

• PBA closed at US$38.53 on Dec 2, having fallen six of the last ten sessions but still up slightly over two weeks.
• It sits in the middle of a wide, falling short‑term trend, and their model projects a 3‑month decline of around 3.5%, with a 90% probability of ending between US$35.45 and US$39.67.
• However, short‑ and long‑term moving averages currently generate buy signals, and a “Golden Star” signal (a rare alignment of price and moving averages) was triggered in late November – historically associated with longer‑term gains in their framework.
• They highlight support near US$38.08 and recommend a stop‑loss near US$36.39, noting relatively low daily volatility.
• They also flag the upcoming ex‑dividend date of December 15, 2025 with a US$0.51 quarterly dividend.

In short: fundamentals and quant models broadly lean positive, but both acknowledge that PBA/PPL are still trading inside a range rather than in a strong uptrend.

Balance sheet moves: subordinated notes and preferred share redemption

In October 2025, Pembina issued C$225 million of 5.95% Fixed‑to‑Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due 2055 and earmarked the proceeds to redeem all outstanding Series 9 Class A preferred shares (PPL.PR.I) at C$25 per share on December 1, 2025. ^[53]

Highlights:

• The redemption amount equals C$225 million, matching the note size. ^[54]
• The final Series 9 preferred dividend of C$0.268875 per share was paid on December 1, 2025. ^[55]

This transaction reflects a liability re‑mix rather than net leverage reduction, but:

• It simplifies the capital structure by taking out one preferred series.
• It locks in long‑dated subordinated debt at sub‑6% coupon – not cheap, but reasonable in today’s rate environment for a BBB‑style midstream credit.

Key risks heading into 2026

Even with supportive news, Pembina Pipeline isn’t risk‑free. Major themes to watch:

1. Dividend coverage and leverage
   • Payout ratio near 100% of earnings leaves limited room for error. ^[56]
   • GuruFocus calculates an Altman Z‑Score of ~1.46, in the “distress zone” for its generic model – not unusual for capital‑intensive utilities and pipelines, but still a flag about balance‑sheet leverage. ^[57]
2. Project execution and regulatory approvals
   • Cedar LNG and potential Alliance expansion are large, multi‑year projects requiring stable regulation, environmental approvals, and disciplined capex management. ^[58]
   • Cost overruns or delays could compress returns or weigh on the stock.
3. Commodity and volume risk in the Marketing segment
   • Q3 showed how Marketing & New Ventures earnings can be hit by NGL price swings, hedging outcomes and margin volatility, even while the pipeline and facilities segments remain solid. ^[59]
4. Interest‑rate environment
   • Pembina has long‑dated assets funded by a mix of equity, preferreds and debt. Higher‑for‑longer interest rates make refinancing and new debt somewhat more expensive, pressuring free cash flow available for growth and dividends.
5. ESG and energy‑transition pressures
   • While gas and LNG are seen by many as transition fuels, regulatory and investor pressure on hydrocarbon infrastructure remains a structural headwind, even as demand for power and data centers creates new opportunities.

Bottom line: how does Pembina Pipeline stock look after the latest news?

Putting it all together as of December 3, 2025:

• Valuation: PPL trades around 18–19x earnings and ~4x sales, modestly below many North American utilities but near the higher end of midstream peers. ^[60]
• Income: The 5–7% dividend yield remains the main attraction, with a long history of small, consistent raises – but with coverage tight enough that investors should keep an eye on cash flows and leverage. ^[61]
• Growth: Contracted projects like Cedar LNG, Peace Pipeline expansions, Wapiti, Redwater fractionation, and potential Alliance/Greenlight/data‑center‑related demand provide a plausible path to moderate EBITDA growth through 2028–2030. ^[62]
• Sentiment:
  • Fundamental analysts are mostly in the “Moderate Buy / low‑risk dividend play” camp with mid‑single‑digit price upside plus yield. ^[63]
  • Technical and AI‑driven models lean cautiously bullish but highlight range‑bound trading and a gentle downward short‑term trend on PBA. ^[64]

For income‑oriented investors comfortable with midstream risk, Pembina Pipeline still looks like a high‑yield, infrastructure‑backed name with visible growth projects in LNG and power. For more conservative investors sensitive to balance‑sheet leverage and payout ratios, the story may hinge on whether management can keep executing major projects on time and on budget while gradually improving dividend coverage.

Either way, after today’s Norges Bank stake, continued institutional interest, and the company’s reaffirmed guidance, Pembina Pipeline remains a stock worth watching as the 2026 outlook for LNG and AI‑driven power demand comes into sharper focus.

References

1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. boereport.com, 15. finimize.com, 16. finimize.com, 17. finimize.com, 18. boereport.com, 19. boereport.com, 20. boereport.com, 21. boereport.com, 22. www.pembina.com, 23. finimize.com, 24. boereport.com, 25. boereport.com, 26. www.stocktitan.net, 27. boereport.com, 28. boereport.com, 29. www.pembina.com, 30. www.pembina.com, 31. boereport.com, 32. www.gurufocus.com, 33. www.gurufocus.com, 34. boereport.com, 35. boereport.com, 36. boereport.com, 37. www.dividendmax.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.dividend.com, 40. www.dividendmax.com, 41. www.dividend.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. simplywall.st, 44. simplywall.st, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.tipranks.com, 47. stockchase.com, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.wallstreetzen.com, 50. stockanalysis.com, 51. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 52. stockinvest.us, 53. www.pembina.com, 54. www.pembina.com, 55. www.pembina.com, 56. www.marketbeat.com, 57. www.gurufocus.com, 58. boereport.com, 59. boereport.com, 60. finance.yahoo.com, 61. www.dividendmax.com, 62. boereport.com, 63. www.marketbeat.com, 64. news.stocktradersdaily.com