PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) heads into Monday’s session (Dec. 15, 2025; US markets open 9:30 a.m. ET) with investors focused less on “headline growth” and more on whether the company can re-accelerate North America momentum—and do it without sacrificing margins.
The near-term backdrop is dominated by one theme: shareholder activism turning into an operating playbook. In just the past two weeks, PepsiCo has moved from reports of settlement talks with activist investor Elliott to laying out a company-backed (and Elliott-supported) set of actions—price investments, portfolio simplification, supply chain and go-to-market review, and cost reductions—alongside preliminary 2026 financial targets. [1]
Below is what matters most for PEP stock before Monday’s open: the latest news, the company’s guidance, what analysts are debating, and the next key dates.
PepsiCo stock check: where PEP stands into Monday
PEP last closed at $150.65 on Friday, Dec. 12, with extended-hours trading around $150.59 later that evening, according to MarketBeat’s data feed. [2]
Why that level matters: a lot of the recent market reaction has been about whether PepsiCo’s “reset” in North America is a tactical tune-up or the beginning of a more meaningful turnaround cycle—and investors will likely keep testing that narrative in the weeks between now and the next earnings report.
The big headline driver: Elliott activism and PepsiCo’s new “affordability + simplification” plan
From settlement reports to a formal plan
On Dec. 4, Reuters reported that Elliott Management was close to a settlement with PepsiCo, citing a Wall Street Journal report. [3]
Days later, PepsiCo published a detailed update on priorities to “enhance shareholder value” and issued preliminary 2026 outlook targets, explicitly noting Elliott’s support for the governance and operating actions. [4]
The Financial Times has also reported that PepsiCo reached a settlement with Elliott to avoid a proxy fight, with commitments including cost cuts and other operational moves. [5]
What PepsiCo says it will actually do
PepsiCo’s plan isn’t just “cut costs.” The company laid out a broad set of initiatives tied to three practical levers:
1) Invest in affordability (selective price resets and pack architecture)
PepsiCo has signaled it intends to invest in “everyday value” and competitive price tiers—part of a wider industry response to consumer resistance after years of food inflation. [6]
2) Simplify the portfolio (SKU rationalization)
The company has said it expects to reduce roughly 20% of its U.S. SKUs by early next year as part of simplifying operations and improving marketplace execution. [7]
3) Aggressively reduce costs (including plant actions, automation, and productivity)
PepsiCo described accelerating productivity initiatives through “automation, digitalization and simplification,” aiming for a “record year of productivity savings” in 2026. [8]
Reuters separately highlighted PepsiCo’s announcement of a review of its North America supply chain and a push to reduce costs after discussions with Elliott. [9]
The numbers investors will anchor to: PepsiCo’s 2025 outlook and preliminary 2026 targets
2025 outlook (affirmed)
PepsiCo reiterated that for 2025 it continues to expect:
- Low-single-digit organic revenue growth
- Core constant currency EPS approximately even with the prior year
- Core annual effective tax rate ~20%
- Total cash returns to shareholders ~ $8.6B (about $7.6B dividends and $1.0B share repurchases)
- FX translation headwinds ~0.5 percentage points affecting reported net revenue and core EPS growth [10]
This matters because earlier in 2025 PepsiCo cited tariff-driven cost pressures and a softer consumer environment when it cut its annual profit forecast at that time. [11]
The current framing suggests PepsiCo believes it can absorb pressures and still hold to “even” core EPS (constant currency) for the year—before the 2026 initiatives ramp. [12]
2026 preliminary outlook (new)
For 2026, PepsiCo’s preliminary targets call for:
- Organic revenue growth: 2% to 4%
- Core constant currency EPS growth: 4% to 6%
- Core annual effective tax rate: ~22%
- FX translation tailwind: ~1 percentage point to benefit reported net revenue and core EPS growth (based on spot rates at the time) [13]
PepsiCo also said the assumptions imply core EPS growth of ~5% to 7% in fiscal 2026 (or ~7% to 9% excluding the impact of global minimum tax regulations). [14]
“Show me” moment: what analysts are saying (and what they still want to see)
The market’s big debate is whether PepsiCo’s plan is incremental or transformational.
Mixed reaction: encouraging targets, but proof required
Investing.com summarized reactions from major Wall Street analysts following PepsiCo’s refreshed targets, noting:
- A view that PepsiCo is acting with urgency on affordable pricing, innovation, and cost cuts
- But also skepticism that the portfolio challenges are solved without clearer evidence of accelerating growth [15]
Barron’s coverage similarly framed the announcement as a meaningful step, but noted the stock reaction was modest and investors are waiting for more tangible progress. [16]
Price targets: what the “consensus” implies
A Nasdaq/Fintel summary reported that as of Dec. 5, the average one-year price target for PepsiCo was $160.36, with forecasts ranging from $118.17 to $180.60, implying mid-single-digit upside from the referenced close. [17]
One specific risk analysts are flagging: GLP-1 “appetite effect”
In a separate analyst note recap, Investing.com reported Piper Sandler trimmed its price target slightly to $161 (maintaining an Overweight rating), citing potential headwinds from broader GLP-1 weight-loss drug adoption—arguing it could pressure demand for higher-sugar and higher-carb categories over time. [18]
You don’t need to believe any single forecast to understand the market implication: the burden of proof is shifting from “can PepsiCo defend margins?” to “can PepsiCo defend margins while resetting price/value and simplifying the portfolio?”
Dividend watch: what income-focused investors should know
PepsiCo declared a quarterly dividend of $1.4225 per share, a 5% increase versus the year-earlier period, consistent with a $5.69 annualized dividend. [19]
Key dates already passed, but still matter for context:
- Payable: Jan. 6, 2026
- Shareholders of record: Dec. 5, 2025 [20]
PepsiCo also noted it has paid consecutive quarterly cash dividends since 1965, and 2025 marked its 53rd consecutive annual dividend increase. [21]
The next catalysts: dates that can move PEP stock
If you’re watching PEP into Monday, these are the next “on the calendar” moments that can change the narrative:
- Feb. 3, 2026: PepsiCo plans to publish Q4 and full-year 2025 results (fiscal year ending Dec. 27, 2025) and post the 10-K; management remarks and a live analyst Q&A are also scheduled that morning. [22]
- Feb. 18, 2026: PepsiCo’s CEO and CFO are scheduled to present at the CAGNY conference. [23]
- Late 2026: PepsiCo said it intends to provide a comprehensive update on North America supply chain and go-to-market optimization initiatives. [24]
A key policy and product risk: synthetic dye phase-outs and “clean label” reformulation
Regulatory pressure on ingredients remains a real operational variable for big food companies.
In April 2025, HHS and the FDA announced measures aimed at phasing out petroleum-based synthetic dyes, including revoking authorization for two colorings and working with industry to eliminate several widely used FD&C dyes on a specified timeline. [25]
Separately, Reuters has reported that packaged food makers have rolled out plans to eliminate ingredients such as FD&C colors and certain sweeteners, responding to the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative and shifting consumer preferences. [26]
For PepsiCo investors, the implication is straightforward: reformulation can be both an opportunity (brand positioning, premium innovation) and a cost/execution risk (R&D, supply chain complexity)—especially while the company is simultaneously trying to simplify its U.S. SKU footprint. [27]
Background: where PepsiCo’s operating story stood heading into the reset
PepsiCo’s most recent quarterly report before this activism-driven reset (third quarter 2025) showed the company topping Wall Street expectations on revenue and profit, helped by international performance and strength in certain “healthier drinks” categories in the U.S., according to Reuters. [28]
Reuters also noted PepsiCo named Steve Schmitt (then Walmart U.S. finance head) as CFO effective November 2025. [29]
On the portfolio side, PepsiCo has been pushing deeper into faster-growing beverage segments:
- The company closed its acquisition of poppi for $1.95 billion (net $1.65 billion after anticipated tax benefits), adding a functional prebiotic soda brand. [30]
- PepsiCo also increased its strategic alignment in energy drinks through the Celsius partnership structure, including preferred stock investment and distribution arrangements involving Celsius/Alani Nu and Rockstar in the U.S. and Canada. [31]
These moves reinforce a bigger theme: PepsiCo is trying to balance its legacy high-volume categories with premium/function-led growth pockets—exactly the sort of mix shift that can help revenue growth but complicate execution.
What to watch in pre-market coverage and early Monday trade
Going into Monday morning, the most actionable “watch list” items are:
- Any incremental detail on which categories or channels will see price investments first (and whether those moves are framed as temporary promotions vs. durable price resets). [32]
- Signals on SKU reduction pace and whether simplification improves in-stocks/shelf space (the operational KPI that often shows up before financials). [33]
- Margin credibility: PepsiCo has explicitly targeted multi-year core operating margin expansion, but the market will pressure-test whether affordability investments delay that path. [34]
- Analyst tone shift: the stock can move on upgrades/downgrades when sentiment is “cautiously optimistic but waiting for proof.” [35]
Bottom line
PepsiCo stock enters Dec. 15 with a clear catalyst: an activist-backed operating reset plus fresh 2026 targets that aim to restore growth while expanding margins. The market’s next step is to decide whether PepsiCo’s plan is simply the right words—or the start of measurable changes in pricing architecture, shelf execution, and North America competitiveness.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.pepsico.com, 5. www.ft.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.pepsico.com, 8. www.pepsico.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.pepsico.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.pepsico.com, 13. www.pepsico.com, 14. www.pepsico.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.pepsico.com, 20. www.pepsico.com, 21. www.pepsico.com, 22. www.pepsico.com, 23. www.pepsico.com, 24. www.pepsico.com, 25. www.fda.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.pepsico.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.pepsico.com, 31. ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.pepsico.com, 35. www.investing.com
