SAO PAULO, March 12, 2026, 13:58 BRT
Petrobras’ ADRs in the U.S. were trading just above $19 on Thursday as Brazil moved to scrap federal diesel taxes and slapped a temporary levy on oil exports—a combination that could limit some gains from crude’s latest jump. Shares changed hands at $19.06, up 0.4% at 1:43 p.m. Sao Paulo time, after ranging from $18.53 to $19.44 earlier in the session.
This shift is hitting now, just as Petrobras had stood out as a top Brazilian winner from the oil rally fueled by the Iran conflict. Last week, the company delivered a fourth-quarter net profit of 15.6 billion reais, boosted by exports that hit a record 1.2 million barrels per day. Brent crude hovered near $100 on Thursday, with the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz escalating.
Petrobras remains on the hook for Brazil’s fuel market, and lately distributors have been pushing for additional diesel. With Petrobras’ price running roughly 85% under import parity, according to Sergio Araujo, who heads the fuel importers group Abicom, the result has been disrupted fuel logistics and rising anxiety as soybean harvest and corn planting unfold.
This week, strains became visible in the south. On Wednesday, Petrobras auctioned off 20 million liters of diesel in Rio Grande do Sul. According to two sources, some of that fuel went for up to 1.78 reais above the usual distributor price of 3.18 reais per liter—letting Petrobras push part of the global price differential onto buyers, all without updating its official price list.
Earlier this month, Chief Executive Magda Chambriard said Petrobras typically doesn’t react to “sudden oil prices volatility” by adjusting prices at home. Logistics chief Claudio Schlosser noted Petrobras has backup supply routes beyond the conflict area, a move aimed at keeping margins intact. Reuters
It’s all about cash these days. Petrobras, after posting a fourth-quarter profit last week, signed off on 8.1 billion reais in interest on equity—Brazil’s version of a dividend for tax purposes.
Petrobras CFO Fernando Melgarejo told analysts the company would “love” to pay extra dividends if oil prices boost cash flow, but later told reporters there’s “no possibility at this time” for an extraordinary payout this year. In a Thursday tax filing, Petrobras said it distributed 45.2 billion reais in dividends and interest on equity for 2025. Reuters
As of March 9, Petrobras’ analyst-coverage page pegged the average PBR ADR target at $15.95, with some estimates reaching as high as $20. Shares have been pressing up against the upper range of those published sell-side targets.
That goes some way toward explaining why oil stocks barely budged. Shell and Exxon shares, Reuters noted this week, managed only modest upticks despite crude prices jumping. “The market is anticipating a swift end” to the Hormuz shutdown, said Melius Research’s James West. Petrobras is in the same boat, plus investors have to weigh local policy uncertainty. Reuters
Crude remains the key variable here. Should the export levy stick around and policymakers push harder to shield diesel prices, Petrobras risks missing out on some gains from pricier oil, even ahead of any official change to fuel pricing. On the flip side, if Gulf exporters divert shipments and supply picks up from April—as the IEA flagged—Petrobras might see the oil rally fizzle before reaping the full benefit.
