RIO DE JANEIRO, March 13, 2026, 12:49 PM (BRT).
Petrobras shares lost ground Friday after the oil giant announced it’s bumping up diesel prices for distributors starting March 14. The increase pushes local fuel prices higher, though consumers won’t see the entire jump at the pump. U.S.-traded ADRs were off $0.25, changing hands at $18.72 as of 1533 UTC. According to the company, diesel A—what it sells to distributors—will cost an extra 0.38 real per liter. Since retail diesel in Brazil is mixed with biodiesel, that translates to an effective hike of 0.32 real per liter at service stations. The average price for diesel A will hit 3.65 reais per liter.
The timing here is clear: Brazil is moving to protect households, truckers, and farmers from the oil price spike connected to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, with crude hovering near $100 a barrel. Just a day before, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration slashed federal diesel taxes to zero and slapped a 12% tax on crude exports—cutting into the typical windfall exporters enjoy when prices surge.
Pressure tends to hit diesel first. Brazil brings in roughly 30% of its diesel from abroad, and on Friday, the Finance Ministry bumped its 2026 inflation projection up to 3.7%, citing an expected 10.8% rise in average oil prices. The forecast had previously been set at 3.6%.
Petrobras said its board has given the green light to join the government’s voluntary diesel subsidy program, but formal enrollment still hinges on guidelines from Brazil’s oil regulator, the ANP. According to the company, the subsidy aligns with Petrobras’s interests and supports a commercial policy designed to shield customers from full exposure to short-term shifts in international prices and the exchange rate.
The stock underperformed some global counterparts. On Friday, Exxon Mobil and Shell shares climbed in U.S. trading, while Petrobras slipped. Oil equities can decouple from crude once prices edge toward $100, noted David Hewitt, senior consultant at Hewitt Energy Perspectives, earlier this week. “It’s a bit of the same now,” he told Reuters. Reuters
Petrobras executives are treading carefully, despite a bump in export margins. Logistics chief Claudio Schlosser noted “better margins” this week. But Chief Executive Magda Chambriard made it clear: sudden price shifts won’t be handed down to Brazilian consumers. Chief Financial Officer Fernando Melgarejo added there’s no space “at this time” for extraordinary dividends. Reuters
Caution is following a solid run. Petrobras reported a fourth-quarter net profit of 15.6 billion reais last week, thanks in part to record exports hitting 1.2 million barrels per day and international sales surging 41.7%. The company’s board also put forward an 8.1 billion reais interest-on-equity payout, a Brazil-specific form of shareholder distribution that’s akin to a cash dividend.
The government’s fingerprints are all over this. Petrobras reported Thursday it shelled out 277.6 billion reais in taxes and other payments to Brazil’s coffers in 2025—roughly 7% of the country’s total tax haul. That kind of number makes Petrobras a fiscal engine for Brasília.
But that trade can swing quickly. On Friday, Goldman Sachs predicted Brent may top $100 this month, but sees prices slipping toward the low $70s later in the year if Middle East tensions cool off. In that case, Petrobras might find itself stuck navigating price caps without the earnings boost that typically follows a run-up in crude.
