Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) stock is spending Christmas Eve in the familiar “mid-$20s” zone — a level that has become a psychological battleground for investors trying to decide whether Pfizer is a high-yield value play, a turnaround story, or simply a “show-me” stock until growth returns.
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Pfizer shares were trading around $25 in holiday-thinned markets, leaving the company with a market capitalization of roughly $142 billion and keeping the conversation laser-focused on one question: Can Pfizer rebuild durable growth after the COVID-era revenue boom — and ahead of a looming patent cliff and intensifying U.S. drug-pricing pressure? [1]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of the latest Pfizer stock news, forecasts, and analysis circulating on Dec. 24, 2025, plus the catalysts and risks that could shape PFE’s next 12–24 months.
Pfizer stock today: what investors are watching on Dec. 24, 2025
Holiday sessions tend to compress headlines into themes rather than sparks, and Pfizer is no exception. The “why now” behind today’s attention isn’t a single intraday item — it’s the market digesting a cluster of high-impact developments from the past two weeks:
- Pfizer’s 2026 financial guidance and its admission that the next few years could be “bumpy,” with growth not expected to return until later in the decade. [2]
- Drug pricing policy risk, amplified by Pfizer’s Medicaid price-cut agreement with the Trump administration and the broader “most-favored-nation” pricing push across the industry. [3]
- Pipeline and execution signals — especially in oncology and obesity — where Pfizer is spending aggressively to build the next wave of blockbusters. [4]
- A safety-related headline in hemophilia that reminded investors why drug development is never linear. [5]
The result: PFE remains a stock where the income story (dividend) competes with the uncertainty story (growth, pricing, patent losses).
The biggest stock-moving item: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance (and what it implies)
Pfizer’s most consequential recent disclosure is its full-year 2026 outlook, released Dec. 16, which frames what “normal” may look like in the post-COVID era.
Key numbers Pfizer guided to for 2026
Pfizer expects:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5–$62.5 billion (with 2025 revenue revised to ~$62.0 billion) [6]
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80–$3.00 (with 2025 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $3.00–$3.15) [7]
- COVID product revenue:~$5.0B in 2026 vs. ~$6.5B in 2025 [8]
- LOE headwind (loss of exclusivity): about $1.5B negative revenue impact year over year in 2026 [9]
- Operational revenue growth: about 4% at the midpoint, excluding COVID and LOE products [10]
- Adjusted expense outlook: combined SI&A + R&D of $23.0–$25.0B, with R&D rising partly due to a PD-1 x VEGF antibody in-licensed from 3SBio and multiple Metsera programs [11]
- Adjusted tax rate: about 15% in 2026 (vs. ~11% in 2025) [12]
How Wall Street framed the guidance
Reuters reported that Pfizer’s 2026 profit outlook came in below the Street’s average estimate and that investors are bracing for “bumpy” years due to fading COVID sales, pricing pressure tied to U.S. policy commitments, and patent expirations. [13]
One analyst line that captured the mood: “This stock is unlikely to break out of its current mid-20s price range until investors are convinced of a growth trajectory.” [14]
That sentence effectively explains why, on Dec. 24, the stock is still hovering near $25: the market wants evidence — not just ambition.
Drug pricing pressure: why Pfizer’s policy exposure is front and center
Drug pricing isn’t new for pharma investors, but Pfizer is unusually exposed to two separate U.S. pricing mechanisms moving closer to real-world impact:
1) Pfizer’s Medicaid price-cut deal and “TrumpRx” direct purchasing
Pfizer and the Trump administration announced an agreement under which Pfizer would lower prescription drug prices in Medicaid toward “most-favored-nation” levels — in exchange for tariff relief and a three-year grace period from certain tariff actions. [15]
The deal also ties Pfizer to a planned direct-to-consumer platform, TrumpRx, intended to enable discounted purchases for cash-pay consumers. [16]
Critically for investors, Reuters noted that Pfizer said the Medicaid discounts would mean price and margin compression in 2026. [17]
2) Medicare drug price setting for Eliquis (effective in 2026)
Separately, Pfizer’s blockbuster blood thinner Eliquis (partnered with Bristol Myers Squibb) is set to face Medicare’s government-set “maximum fair price” under the Inflation Reduction Act framework beginning Jan. 1, 2026. Pfizer has previously stated the imposed maximum fair price for a 30-day equivalent supply of Eliquis is $231.00. [18]
This is exactly the kind of structural margin pressure that makes investors demand a bigger pipeline payoff elsewhere — because pricing headwinds can quietly offset pipeline wins.
The broader industry context
The pricing theme is expanding beyond Pfizer alone. Reuters reported additional Medicaid-related pricing agreements involving multiple large drugmakers, with tariff exemptions positioned as part of the tradeoff. [19]
For Pfizer, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the market is pricing in a tougher U.S. net-price environment, and PFE needs volume growth, new indications, and new launches to outrun it.
Pipeline and growth rebuild: obesity is a strategic pivot (and a spending driver)
Pfizer’s post-pandemic strategy is increasingly about buying and building into growth categories where demand is large and expanding — especially obesity and cardiometabolic disease.
Metsera acquisition: Pfizer’s “bigger bet” on next-gen obesity drugs
Pfizer completed its acquisition of Metsera in November 2025, calling obesity and cardiometabolic disease a high-growth area and outlining a portfolio that includes:
- MET-097i, a weekly and monthly injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist expected to enter Phase 3
- MET-233i, a monthly amylin analog in Phase 1
- An oral GLP-1 candidate in Phase 1 and earlier programs [20]
Pfizer disclosed an enterprise value of ~$7.0B plus a contingent value right (CVR) with potential milestone-linked payments. [21]
Importantly, Pfizer also warned the deal is expected to be dilutive through 2030, reflecting the reality that obesity R&D is expensive, competitive, and long-dated. [22]
YaoPharma licensing: another obesity pipeline layer
On Dec. 9, Pfizer also announced a global collaboration and license agreement for YP05002, a small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist in Phase 1 for chronic weight management, including:
- $150M upfront
- Up to $1.935B in development/regulatory/commercial milestones
- Tiered royalties if approved [23]
Pfizer said it plans to explore combinations, including with its GIPR antagonist PF-07976016 (Phase 2). [24]
Why Dec. 24 policy news matters to Pfizer’s obesity ambition
On Dec. 24, Reuters reported CMS unveiled a voluntary coverage model to expand access to GLP-1 drugs under Medicaid and Medicare Part D, with standardized coverage terms and negotiated net prices as part of its BALANCE initiative. [25]
Pfizer isn’t a GLP-1 market leader today — but the policy direction matters because it can shape the “rules of the road” for reimbursement and patient affordability that future entrants (like Pfizer) will face.
Oncology remains Pfizer’s nearer-term “proof engine”
If obesity is the long runway, oncology is the business where Pfizer is expected to show nearer-term traction, especially after the 2023 Seagen acquisition and ongoing label-expansion efforts.
PADCEV + Keytruda: FDA approval and new Phase 3 data
Pfizer and Astellas announced in November that the U.S. FDA approved PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) plus Keytruda in a perioperative regimen for certain cisplatin-ineligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, citing a 60% reduction in the risk of recurrence/progression/death vs surgery alone in the pivotal Phase 3 EV-303 trial. [26]
Then on Dec. 17, the companies reported positive topline interim results from the Phase 3 EV-304 (KEYNOTE-B15) study in cisplatin-eligible patients, saying the trial met its primary endpoint with statistically significant improvements in event-free survival and also improved overall survival (a key secondary endpoint). [27]
For PFE investors, these developments serve as a reminder that Pfizer’s pipeline isn’t only about obesity — and that oncology assets can produce both revenue and sentiment momentum when trial and regulatory news is clean.
The risk reminder: hemophilia trial death puts a spotlight on safety monitoring
On Dec. 23, Reuters reported that a patient in a long-term study testing Pfizer’s hemophilia drug Hympavzi died after a stroke followed by a brain hemorrhage, with Pfizer saying it was gathering information with investigators and an independent data monitoring committee. Pfizer said it did not anticipate an impact to safety for treated patients based on current knowledge and overall data collected to date. [28]
For stockholders, this type of news is material because it can:
- Delay broader adoption in sensitive categories
- Trigger additional regulatory questions
- Increase the cost/time of trials or post-marketing commitments
Even if the commercial impact ends up limited, it reinforces why pipeline valuation always carries clinical risk.
Dividend watch: Pfizer doubles down on income appeal
One reason PFE remains widely followed — even by investors skeptical about near-term growth — is the dividend.
Pfizer declared a $0.43 per share first-quarter 2026 dividend, payable March 6, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business Jan. 23, 2026, and noted it would be the company’s 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. [29]
At roughly $25/share, that annualized payout of $1.72 implies a yield close to ~6.9% (yields move with price). [30]
That income cushion can support the stock — but it also raises a key investor debate: How much capital should go to dividends vs. buying growth through R&D and M&A?
Pfizer stock forecast: what analysts are projecting as of Dec. 24, 2025
Analyst outlooks are mixed — not in a chaotic way, but in a classic “range-bound value stock” way.
Where the Street’s price targets cluster
- Investing.com shows 24 analysts with an average 12-month target around $28.62 (high ~$36.16, low ~$23), implying mid-teens upside from the mid-$20s. [31]
- StockAnalysis lists a smaller set (10 analysts) with a “Hold” consensus and an average target around $27.40 (low $24, high $35). [32]
The headline: targets generally sit in the high-$20s, suggesting analysts see upside — but not a breakout — without clearer evidence of sustainable growth.
Why “Hold” persists despite a high dividend yield
Much of the cautious tone comes down to three balancing forces:
- Near-term earnings pressure (COVID normalization, policy-driven price compression, LOE) [33]
- Long-dated growth investments (obesity pipeline buildout that may take years to monetize) [34]
- Real but uneven pipeline progress (oncology wins alongside clinical uncertainty elsewhere) [35]
That combination often produces exactly what Pfizer has been: a high-yield stock with upside optionality — but limited near-term multiple expansion.
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move PFE in 2026
For investors tracking Pfizer stock into the new year, these are the drivers most likely to matter:
1) Execution vs. 2026 guidance
Pfizer’s outlook implies it will lean on cost realignment, manage margin compression, and still fund heavy R&D. [36]
The market will watch quarterly results for signs of:
- Better-than-feared cost discipline
- Stabilization in COVID product declines
- Evidence that “operational growth excluding COVID/LOE” is real, not theoretical [37]
2) Obesity pipeline milestones
Investors will look for clarity on:
- Phase 3 timelines (especially Metsera assets)
- Differentiation vs. dominant incumbents
- How U.S. reimbursement frameworks evolve for GLP-1 and obesity therapies [38]
3) Oncology label expansion and trial readouts
PADCEV + Keytruda developments in bladder cancer illustrate how label expansions can change revenue trajectories — and sentiment — relatively quickly. [39]
4) Patent/LOE realities
A Zacks commentary highlighted investor sensitivity to Pfizer’s longer-term patent exposure across major products (including Eliquis and others), reinforcing why the market is skeptical until new launches prove themselves. [40]
Bottom line for Pfizer stock on Dec. 24, 2025
Pfizer stock is ending 2025 where it has spent much of the year — priced as a high-yield, policy-exposed pharma giant that needs pipeline wins to re-rate higher.
The company’s own guidance frames 2026 as a year of lower COVID revenue, LOE headwinds, higher R&D investment, and pricing pressure, even as Pfizer tries to build a multi-year growth engine through oncology and obesity. [41]
For now, the stock’s “mid-$20s” gravity looks less like a mystery and more like a consensus: income is strong, the rebuild is credible, but the market is still waiting for proof. [42]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.pfizer.com, 3. www.pfizer.com, 4. www.pfizer.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.pfizer.com, 7. www.pfizer.com, 8. www.pfizer.com, 9. www.pfizer.com, 10. www.pfizer.com, 11. www.pfizer.com, 12. www.pfizer.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.pfizer.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.pfizer.com, 21. www.pfizer.com, 22. www.pfizer.com, 23. www.pfizer.com, 24. www.pfizer.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.pfizer.com, 27. www.pfizer.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.pfizer.com, 30. www.pfizer.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.pfizer.com, 35. www.pfizer.com, 36. www.pfizer.com, 37. www.pfizer.com, 38. www.pfizer.com, 39. www.pfizer.com, 40. finviz.com, 41. www.pfizer.com, 42. www.reuters.com
