Pfizer’s stock is ending 2025 in a familiar place: caught between near-term headwinds (shrinking COVID-era revenue, a growing patent cliff, and U.S. drug-pricing pressure) and a late-decade recovery narrative built around oncology, obesity, and pipeline execution.
As of the latest available trade/close data around Dec. 20, Pfizer shares are near $25.19, modestly higher on the most recent session. Investing
That price level matters because it frames the debate investors are having right now: Is PFE a high-yield “wait-it-out” turnaround, or a value trap until new launches and major clinical wins begin to offset upcoming losses of exclusivity?
Below is a full, Dec. 20, 2025 snapshot of the latest news, corporate forecasts, and analyst outlooks driving Pfizer stock.
What’s moving Pfizer stock right now
1) Pfizer’s 2026 guidance reset expectations
The week’s most important catalyst was Pfizer’s full-year 2026 guidance and management commentary, which landed as “conservative” for some and “muted” for others. Pfizer’s own outlook calls for:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B–$62.5B
- 2026 adjusted EPS:$2.80–$3.00
- 2026 COVID product revenue: about $5B
- Expected 2026 revenue compression from LOE/generic entry: about $1.5B
- Operational revenue growth (midpoint) excluding COVID + LOE impacts: about 4% Q4 Investor Relations
Market reaction was notable earlier in the week (heavy volume around the guidance release), even as the stock stabilized into Friday’s close. Investing
Why the guidance looked soft: management explicitly tied the 2026 EPS headwinds to three buckets—lower COVID trends, LOE pressure, and deal-related dilution—while also guiding for a more typical ~15% tax rate. Q4 Investor Relations
2) U.S. drug-pricing pressure re-entered the spotlight
Drug pricing wasn’t just a background risk this week—it made headlines.
- On Dec. 19, Reuters reported that the Trump administration and multiple drugmakers struck deals to cut prices on most drugs sold to Medicaid, expand direct-to-consumer cash-pay options via a TrumpRx website, and launch drugs in the U.S. at prices aligned with other wealthy nations—in exchange for a three-year tariff exemption. Reuters
- Separately, Reuters reported CMS announced two Medicare pilot programs—GLOBE (launching Oct. 1, 2026) and GUARD (launching Jan. 1, 2027)—using international price benchmarks to calculate manufacturer rebates and shape patient out-of-pocket costs for selected drugs. Reuters
Pfizer has already referenced a “landmark voluntary agreement” with the U.S. government that management said provided greater clarity on pricing and tariffs, including a three-year grace period from certain U.S. tariffs tied to commitments such as increased U.S. manufacturing investment. Q4 Investor Relations
Why this matters for PFE holders: Even if policy changes are phased in, the direction of travel—benchmarking against international prices and channel shifts—can influence Pfizer’s longer-term margin assumptions and the valuation multiple investors are willing to pay.
3) The “patent cliff” is no longer theoretical—management quantified it
Pfizer management put a hard number on the looming exclusivity cycle: the company expects roughly $17B of revenue impacted by patent and regulatory exclusivity expirations between now and the end of the decade, with the most intense period concentrated in the 2026–2028 window. Q4 Investor Relations
That’s the core reason the investment case is increasingly framed around timing: whether pipeline maturation and new product scale arrive fast enough to blunt the cliff.
Pfizer’s 2026 forecast: the key numbers investors are underwriting
Revenue: flat-ish headline, but better “core” growth underneath
On the surface, the $59.5B–$62.5B revenue guide implies a business that’s treading water versus 2025’s revised expectation of around $62B. Q4 Investor Relations
But Pfizer is pushing investors to look at the “core” operating engine:
- COVID product revenue is expected to step down from about $6.5B in 2025 to about $5B in 2026, with Paxlovid described as more volatile and more directly tied to infection rates. Q4 Investor Relations
- Excluding COVID and LOE-impacted products at the midpoint, Pfizer expects about 4% operational growth. Q4 Investor Relations
EPS: dilution + mix shift + taxes weigh on 2026
Pfizer’s 2026 EPS guide ($2.80–$3.00) is the lightning rod because it implies a step down from reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS guidance ($3.00–$3.15). Q4 Investor Relations
Management highlighted several specific EPS drivers for 2026, including:
- deal-related dilution tied to transactions such as 3SBio/Metsera,
- COVID-related declines,
- and a higher effective tax rate. Q4 Investor Relations
Reuters also reported the 2026 profit outlook came in below the average Wall Street estimate tracked by LSEG. Reuters
Spending: R&D goes up as Pfizer places bets for late-decade growth
Pfizer guided to higher R&D, reflecting heavy investment in key pipeline areas and recently acquired or partnered programs. For 2026, Pfizer cited:
- Adjusted R&D:$10.5B–$11.5B
- Adjusted SI&A:$12.5B–$13.5B Q4 Investor Relations
The strategic subtext is clear: Pfizer is willing to absorb a weaker near-term earnings profile to fund what it hopes becomes a stronger 2029–2030 product cycle. Q4 Investor Relations
Cost cuts, restructuring, and operational levers
Pfizer continues to run a multi-year efficiency program to help defend margins through the LOE cycle:
- Management said it remains on track for roughly $7.2B in total combined net cost savings, with the majority expected by the end of 2026 rather than 2027 (earlier than originally stated). Q4 Investor Relations
- The CFO described expectations to deliver $5.7B of savings by year-end 2026 under cost realignment efforts. Q4 Investor Relations
On the restructuring front, Reuters reported Pfizer planned to cut 200+ jobs in Switzerland, reducing the local workforce significantly as part of the broader cost reduction drive. Reuters
Pfizer also described reorganizing its Global Hospital and Biosimilars products into a new structure starting in fiscal 2026, combining sterile injectables, anti-infective injectables, and biosimilars—aimed at productivity improvements and focus. Q4 Investor Relations
Pipeline and partnerships: where Pfizer is trying to rebuild growth
If the “bear case” is primarily the patent cliff, the “bull case” is Pfizer’s attempt to manufacture a new growth cycle via oncology, obesity, and next-generation immunology.
Oncology: PADCEV + Keytruda data strengthens a core pillar
Pfizer (with Astellas) announced positive topline results from an interim analysis of the Phase 3 EV-304 trial for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) in combination with Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Pfizer
Management also highlighted that PADCEV plus pembrolizumab had recently received U.S. FDA approval in cisplatin-ineligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer as neoadjuvant therapy with adjuvant continuation after cystectomy (based on EV-303/KEYNOTE-905), and framed EV-304 as an expansion opportunity into additional patients. Pfizer
Immunology + AI-driven discovery: the Adaptive Biotechnologies deal
Reuters reported Adaptive Biotechnologies signed two non-exclusive agreements with Pfizer supporting rheumatoid arthritis and other immune-related disease research, with the rheumatoid arthritis asset deal carrying potential value up to $890M (upfront + milestones). Pfizer also licensed access to Adaptive’s internal T-cell receptor database for use in AI model training and drug discovery. Reuters
Obesity: aggressive build-out, but revenue is a longer-dated story
Pfizer is framing obesity as a major late-decade growth pillar. In its guidance call transcript, Pfizer leadership discussed moving quickly to advance a large slate of obesity programs in 2026 and emphasized the company’s post-Metsera acquisition positioning. Q4 Investor Relations
Independent equity research commentary echoed the same timing issue: obesity is a massive market, but meaningful commercial impact depends on clinical success and development timelines. Nasdaq
India distribution partnership: Pfizer and Cipla
Pfizer India and Cipla announced a partnership where Cipla will exclusively market and distribute four Pfizer brands in India, while Pfizer continues to manufacture/source/supply those medicines to Cipla for India. The announcement identified the brands (including Corex Dx/Corex LS, Dolonex, Neksium, and Dalacin C). Cipla
This isn’t likely to change Pfizer’s global revenue trajectory on its own, but it supports Pfizer’s theme of optimizing commercial routes and leveraging partners for reach in key markets.
Dividend watch: Pfizer’s yield remains the stock’s “anchor”
For many investors, PFE’s high dividend yield is the reason the stock stays on the radar during a multi-year reset.
Pfizer’s investor relations dividend history shows a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share, and lists the next payment schedule (including ex-date and payable date). Pfizer Investor Relations
Management also stated it maintained the first-quarter 2026 dividend at $0.43 and emphasized maintaining flexibility to invest in the business. Q4 Investor Relations
At around $25.19, a $0.43 quarterly dividend annualizes to $1.72, implying a yield near 6.8% (based on simple annualized yield math). Pfizer Investor Relations
One more detail dividend-focused investors are watching: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance assumptions included no share repurchases. Q4 Investor Relations
Wall Street forecasts: price targets, ratings, and where expectations cluster
Analyst views remain mixed, reflecting the same split in the investment narrative: income + optionality versus growth uncertainty.
A wide spread of targets
An Investing.com roundup of analyst notes highlighted varied targets and stances, including:
- Guggenheim: Buy, $35 target
- Bernstein: Market Perform, $30 target
- Wolfe Research: Underperform, $24 target
- BofA Securities: lowered to $27 (citing faster erosion of COVID product sales) Investing
Consensus points to moderate upside, but not a “slam dunk”
MarketScreener, citing FactSet-based consensus data, showed:
- Average target price:$28.62
- Number of analysts:26
- Mean consensus:Outperform (as displayed on the page) MarketScreener
In other words, consensus implies upside from ~$25, but not a dramatic re-rating—unless Pfizer delivers tangible pipeline wins and/or policy risks ease.
Bull case vs. bear case for Pfizer stock heading into 2026
The bull case
- Pipeline momentum (especially oncology) continues to translate into approvals and label expansions, supporting a credibility rebound. Pfizer
- Cost savings arrive faster than expected, helping Pfizer defend margins and fund R&D through the LOE cycle. Q4 Investor Relations
- The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive while investors wait for the late-decade growth thesis to mature. Pfizer Investor Relations
The bear case
- The 2026–2028 patent/LOE cycle bites harder than expected, with launches failing to fully offset losses in the near term. Q4 Investor Relations
- COVID products continue to normalize lower (particularly Paxlovid), and the “core growth” story isn’t strong enough to keep revenue moving up. Q4 Investor Relations
- U.S. pricing policy—through negotiated deals and new Medicare pilots—pushes the sector toward international benchmarking and tighter net pricing. Reuters
What to watch next for Pfizer stock
As of Dec. 20, 2025, the next major swing factors for PFE aren’t just quarterly beats or misses—they’re evidence points that the late-decade strategy is working:
- More clarity on the practical impact of TrumpRx-style channel changes and international price benchmarking models (GUARD/GLOBE) as implementation details emerge. Reuters
- High-value clinical readouts and regulatory decisions—especially in oncology where Pfizer is emphasizing potential backbone therapies and practice-changing regimens. Pfizer
- Progress in obesity R&D—not just announcements, but advancement into later-stage trials that can justify long-term revenue expectations. Nasdaq
- Capital allocation signals, especially whether buybacks remain off the table as Pfizer funds business development and pipeline buildout. Q4 Investor Relations
Bottom line on Dec. 20, 2025
Pfizer stock near $25 reflects a market that’s still skeptical about the next two to three years—but not dismissive of the company’s ability to engineer a recovery by the decade’s end. Barron’s
The company has put a detailed 2026 framework on the table—lower COVID revenue, measurable LOE pressure, heavy R&D investment, and accelerated cost savings—while policy headlines remind investors that U.S. pricing risk is not going away. Q4 Investor Relations
