Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) shares fell sharply in U.S. trading on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as investors weighed the drugmaker’s first look at full-year 2026 guidance, an updated 2025 revenue outlook, and fresh commentary on cost savings and capital allocation. By late morning ET, Pfizer stock was trading around $25, down roughly 5% on the day after swinging between the mid-$26s and just under $25.
The market’s message was clear: Pfizer’s transition away from pandemic-era revenue is still a work in progress, and 2026 is shaping up as another “bridge year” where lower COVID-19 sales and patent expirations pressure results—partly offset by newer launches, acquisitions, and productivity gains. [1]
Pfizer stock today: what the market did with the headline numbers
Pfizer’s stock action on Dec. 16 captured the push-and-pull in the guidance:
- PFE price: about $25.13 in late-morning trading
- Day’s move: roughly -4.9%
- Intraday range: about $24.93 to $26.70
- Volume: more than 55 million shares at the time of the quote
Early reports noted that Pfizer shares initially edged higher in premarket trading as the guidance hit the tape. [2] But as investors dug deeper into the profit outlook and the implied headwinds for 2026, the stock turned lower during regular hours. [3]
The big catalyst: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance (and why it mattered)
Pfizer’s full-year 2026 guidance landed at the center of today’s price move:
- Revenue:$59.5B to $62.5B (midpoint about $61B) [4]
- Adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80 to $3.00 (midpoint about $2.90) [5]
- Adjusted SI&A expenses:$12.5B to $13.5B [6]
- Adjusted R&D expenses:$10.5B to $11.5B [7]
- Effective tax rate on adjusted income: approximately 15% [8]
The key comparison on Wall Street was the earnings forecast. Reuters reported Pfizer’s adjusted EPS range came in below the Street’s average estimate (around $3.05). [9] Investors.com similarly highlighted that the 2026 EPS outlook was light versus expectations and contributed to the day’s drop. [10]
Pfizer’s own bridge-year math: COVID and LOE are the biggest drags
Pfizer put two big headwinds front and center:
- COVID-19 products: Pfizer expects COVID-related revenue of about $5.0B in 2026, down from about $6.5B expected in 2025. [11]
- Loss of exclusivity (LOE): Pfizer expects an approximately $(1.5B) revenue impact in 2026 tied to products facing generic or biosimilar competition. [12]
Put differently, Pfizer is telling investors that roughly $3B of year-over-year pressure (COVID decline + LOE impact) is built into the 2026 outlook. [13]
At the same time, Pfizer emphasized that at the midpoint, revenue excluding COVID and LOE products is expected to grow about ~4% operationally year over year—an important signal for investors trying to judge whether the “base business” is stabilizing. [14]
Pfizer also updated 2025 guidance: revenue tightened, EPS reaffirmed
Alongside 2026, Pfizer also updated 2025 guidance:
- 2025 revenue: approximately $62.0B (revised from a prior $61.0B to $64.0B range) [15]
- 2025 adjusted diluted EPS:$3.00 to $3.15 (reaffirmed) [16]
- 2025 effective tax rate on adjusted income: approximately 11% [17]
MarketWatch summarized the move as investors reacting not just to the 2026 profit outlook, but also to Pfizer’s revised 2025 revenue view and the broader reality that the company is still working to replace its pandemic-era earnings power. [18]
Why the 2026 EPS outlook drops: Pfizer’s own driver breakdown
One of the most investor-relevant details today was Pfizer’s breakdown of what pushes the midpoint of adjusted EPS from about $3.08 (2025 midpoint) down to about $2.90 (2026 midpoint). Pfizer’s slide deck shows:
- Offsets / positives: contributions from recent launches and acquired products, plus productivity gains
- Headwinds:business development dilution, LOE impact, lower COVID revenue volume, and a higher tax rate, with FX/other items also shown in the bridge [19]
This framing matters because it signals Pfizer is leaning on new products + efficiency to counteract structural revenue losses—but not enough, at least yet, to prevent an earnings step-down in 2026. [20]
Cost cuts and productivity: Pfizer says it’s ahead of plan
If today’s trade was about headwinds, Pfizer’s counterweight was productivity.
In its 2026 guidance materials, Pfizer said it exceeded 2025 targets and is on track to deliver the majority of $7.2B in net cost savings by 2026, with $500M reinvested to strengthen R&D productivity. [21]
Reuters separately noted Pfizer is pursuing more than $7B in cost savings through 2027 and has exceeded its 2025 cost-reduction goals—language that aligns with the “multi-year” savings story the company has been selling since the post-COVID slowdown began. [22]
For PFE stock, these savings are crucial because they help defend margins while the company works through COVID declines and the patent cliff.
Capital allocation: dividend supported, buybacks not included
Pfizer also reinforced a “balanced” capital allocation posture—returning cash to shareholders while prioritizing reinvestment and deleveraging.
From Pfizer’s guidance deck:
- Dividend:$0.43/share (first quarter 2026 indicated on the slide) [23]
- Internal R&D: roughly $11B (shown as reinvestment capacity) [24]
- Business development capacity: roughly $6B [25]
- Share repurchases:none included in 2026 guidance [26]
- Deleveraging: Pfizer referenced over 2.7x gross leverage expected at YE 2025 [27]
Pfizer’s board previously declared a $0.43 quarterly dividend payable March 6, 2026 (to holders of record Jan. 23, 2026), extending a long streak of quarterly payouts. [28]
At Tuesday’s share price, that $0.43 quarterly dividend equates to $1.72 annualized, implying a yield in the high-6% range—one reason PFE continues to screen as an income-oriented large-cap pharma name, even amid growth uncertainty. [29]
Analyst reaction and PFE stock forecast: “Hold” consensus, price targets clustered near $28
Analyst sentiment on Pfizer remains mixed—reflecting the same debate the market repriced today: is Pfizer a durable value-and-income play during a patent-cliff cycle, or a stock that needs clearer growth catalysts?
Two widely followed aggregators on Dec. 16 showed a similar picture:
- Stock Analysis: consensus rating “Hold”, average price target $27.91 (with targets spanning roughly the mid-$20s to mid-$30s). [30]
- MarketBeat: consensus rating “Hold”, average price target $28.22, with a low target around $23 and high around $35 (methodologies vary). [31]
BofA trims target again after guidance
One of the most-circulated analyst notes today came from Bank of America: Investing.com reported BofA lowered its price target to $27 from $28 while maintaining a Neutral stance, citing faster COVID product erosion as part of the thesis. [32]
A separate market headline service also reflected the same $27 target reduction (from $28) with the rating maintained, though full details were paywalled. [33]
“Not a major surprise”
Investors.com reported that some analysts characterized the guidance miss as “not a major surprise,” pointing to dilution effects from Pfizer’s recent deal activity, including the obesity-focused Metsera acquisition. [34]
What Pfizer is telling investors about the long game: the LOE cliff extends to the end of the decade
Beyond 2026, Pfizer’s messaging is increasingly about managing through a multi-year LOE cycle and trying to exit the decade with a stronger pipeline.
In its “Key Takeaways” slide, Pfizer said it anticipates approximately $17 billion in annual revenue impact from LOE products by 2030 (vs. 2025) and expects growth toward the end of the decade to be driven by a maturing R&D pipeline, increased sales from completed business development deals, and newly launched products. [35]
That statement is a big reason the stock is so sensitive to near-term guidance: the market is trying to decide whether Pfizer can build enough new revenue streams fast enough to offset LOE losses before the decade turns. [36]
Pipeline and catalyst check: obesity strategy, oncology readouts, and immunology deals
While today’s move was primarily about financial guidance, Pfizer’s pipeline narrative continues to shape the “what could change the story?” question for PFE stock.
Obesity: 15 studies planned to advance in 2026
Pfizer highlighted a “solidified obesity strategy,” saying it plans 15 clinical studies to advance in 2026, mostly in Phase 3. [37]
Reuters also noted that higher 2026 R&D spend is tied in part to clinical development from Pfizer’s recently acquired obesity-focused Metsera, as well as investment linked to a program from 3SBio. [38]
Oncology: Tukysa data adds to the pipeline backdrop
Earlier this month, Reuters reported late-stage data showing Pfizer’s Tukysa (tucatinib) delayed disease progression in certain HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients, with a median progression-free survival improvement versus placebo in the described trial context. [39]
Pfizer also published details of HER2CLIMB-05 results in its own press materials. [40]
Immunology: Adaptive Biotechnologies deal (up to $890M)
Separately, a Pfizer-related collaboration headline remains in the background: Reuters reported Adaptive Biotechnologies signed two non-exclusive agreements with Pfizer tied to immune-driven research, with potential milestone payments totaling up to $890 million. [41]
Operational priorities: margins, cash flow, and a new biosimilars/hospital unit
Pfizer’s guidance deck also included operational items investors often track when growth is under pressure:
- Pfizer expects robust cash flow from operations in 2026. [42]
- Pfizer expects adjusted full-year 2026 gross margin in the mid-70% range. [43]
- Pfizer plans to begin a new Global Hospital and Biosimilars organization in FY2026, aimed at transforming prioritization and delivery while providing productivity benefits. [44]
These details reinforce why cost savings matter so much to the bull case: if Pfizer can keep margins strong and cash flow steady, it can keep funding R&D and dividends even during a revenue “valley.” [45]
Bottom line: what matters most for Pfizer stock after Dec. 16’s selloff
Pfizer’s Dec. 16 guidance release didn’t introduce a single shock. Instead, it sharpened the core PFE stock debate into a few investable questions:
- How quickly will COVID revenue normalize? Pfizer is modeling another step down in 2026. [46]
- How painful is the patent cliff—really? Pfizer is pointing to multi-year LOE pressure extending to 2030 in its longer-term framing. [47]
- Can productivity and new products offset the headwinds soon enough? Pfizer’s EPS bridge suggests launches/acquisitions and productivity help, but headwinds still win in 2026. [48]
- Does the dividend remain a pillar? Pfizer’s materials emphasize maintaining the dividend while buybacks are not included in 2026 guidance. [49]
- Will pipeline execution (especially obesity and oncology) change sentiment? Pfizer is positioning 2026 as an active development year, including multiple obesity studies advancing. [50]
For now, Wall Street’s consensus still clusters around a “Hold” view with price targets near $28—implying modest upside from Tuesday’s depressed trading level, but not a broad conviction call that Pfizer’s growth engine has fully re-ignited. [51]
References
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