Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) ended Thursday’s session lower and was little changed in after-hours trading, even as the broader market rallied on softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. With Friday’s open (Dec. 19, 2025) set to land on a major derivatives expiration day—and with rate expectations back in focus—investors will be watching whether PM resumes its recent trend or continues to lag the tape.
Below is a complete, up-to-the-minute rundown of PM’s post-close setup, today’s key headlines touching the tobacco/nicotine space, and the specific catalysts to keep on your radar before Friday’s opening bell.
PM stock: Thursday recap and after-hours check (Dec. 18, 2025)
Price action (regular session): PM traded lower on Thursday, closing at $157.31, down 0.82% on the day. The stock ranged from roughly $156.49 to $159.01 during the session on volume of about 5.2 million shares, reflecting a typical liquidity profile for the name. [1]
After hours: In post-market trading, PM was essentially flat near $157.30, signaling no major late-breaking company-specific headline driving a repricing after the close. [2]
A key takeaway from the after-hours tape: the market didn’t appear to receive new PMI-specific information after 4:00 p.m. ET that would materially change the near-term narrative—so Friday’s open is likely to be dictated more by macro sentiment, sector flows, and options-related positioning than by a fresh PMI press release.
Why PM fell while the broader market rose
Thursday was a “risk-on” session for U.S. equities. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 6,774.76, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.38% to 23,006.36, and Treasury yields dipped after a CPI print that came in softer than economists expected (while also noting that the inflation data was affected by collection delays tied to a government shutdown). [3]
So why didn’t PM participate?
1) Defensive consumer staples lagged the rally
While tech and high-beta areas benefited from the inflation-driven rebound, consumer staples as a group didn’t lead. One clean proxy: the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) finished down 0.58% on Dec. 18. [4]
PM sits squarely in the “defensive + yield” bucket for many portfolios, and on days when markets rotate toward growth and tech, staples can get left behind—even when rates ease.
2) Peer comparison shows the group moved lower
A MarketWatch peer comparison noted that PM fell 0.82% on Thursday while Altria also declined, reinforcing that the weakness wasn’t unique to PMI. [5]
3) No new PMI catalyst hit the wires late in the session
With after-hours trading essentially flat, the tape suggests Thursday’s move was flow-driven rather than news-driven—a meaningful point going into Friday. [6]
Today’s PMI-adjacent headline: Italy raids illegal tobacco factory
While PMI did not publish a major corporate update on Dec. 18, one notable tobacco-industry headline crossed from Reuters: Italian and EU authorities announced raids on an illegal tobacco factory near Rome and the seizure of 27 tonnes of cigarettes, describing significant tax-and-duty damage and sophisticated counter-surveillance measures used by suspects. [7]
This kind of story typically doesn’t move PM stock day-to-day, but it matters for two reasons:
- Brand protection and illicit trade remain a persistent issue for global tobacco companies (especially for high-recognition brands).
- Headlines involving enforcement and counterfeiting can occasionally feed into broader political or regulatory narratives around tobacco control—particularly in Europe.
For Friday’s open, consider this a background factor, not a direct catalyst.
Dividend and calendar watch: key dates PMI investors are tracking
One of the most practical “before the open” items for PM holders right now isn’t today’s price move—it’s the near-term dividend calendar.
PMI has declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, payable January 14, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 26, 2025 (with an ex-dividend date of December 26, 2025). [8]
That ex-div date is especially notable this year because Reuters reported that major U.S. exchanges plan to operate a regular full trading day on Dec. 26, even though the federal government is scheduled to be closed that day. [9]
What this means in plain terms:
- If you’re positioning around dividend capture or avoiding the ex-div drop mechanics, the Dec. 26 session matters.
- The fact that exchanges are open removes a major calendar uncertainty that sometimes complicates dividend planning.
The bigger fundamental narrative still shaping PM
Even though tonight’s focus is “after the bell,” PM remains a story stock in one key way: its continued pivot toward smoke-free products.
In PMI’s Q3 2025 results release, the company emphasized that its smoke-free business accounted for 41% of total net revenues and that its smoke-free products were available in 100 markets, with a portfolio spanning IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV. [10]
That strategic shift matters for valuation and sentiment because investors tend to frame PMI less as “legacy cigarettes” and more as a global nicotine platform—especially since ZYN has become a central point of attention in the U.S. nicotine pouch market.
A major forward-looking regulatory milestone on the calendar: Reuters reported that the FDA plans to convene a panel on January 22, 2026 to review Swedish Match USA’s application related to marketing ZYN nicotine pouches with “lower-risk than cigarettes” messaging. [11]
That’s not a Friday-morning catalyst—but it’s one of the clearest “next big dates” investors are likely to keep in mind as 2026 approaches.
Street forecasts: where analysts see PM over the next 12 months
For investors who track consensus expectations into year-end, analyst targets remain constructive.
MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data lists an average 12‑month price target of about $189, with published targets spanning roughly $166 to $220 (as tracked by the service). [12]
Two important nuances to remember going into Friday:
- Analyst targets are typically slow-moving and won’t explain single-day moves like Thursday’s dip.
- In a defensive, dividend-forward name like PM, rate expectations and sector rotations can dominate trading even when the fundamental story is stable.
What to know before the market opens Friday (Dec. 19, 2025)
Here’s the practical checklist for the next session.
1) Futures tone: modest cooling after Thursday’s inflation rally
By Thursday evening, Investing.com reported U.S. stock index futures edging slightly lower, suggesting the market was pausing after the CPI-driven rebound. [13]
If futures stay soft into the morning, PM can sometimes hold up relatively well (defensive bid). If futures turn sharply higher, PM can lag again if money rotates back into growth.
2) Friday is a major expiration day (potential for headline volatility)
Friday, December 19, 2025, is listed as a triple witching day—one of the quarterly sessions associated with higher derivatives-related trading activity. [14]
This matters for PM even if it isn’t the “main event” ticker because:
- Expiration flows can increase index-level volatility, which spills into large-cap components.
- Liquidity can be deceptive early in the session—moves can be sharper than expected.
3) Pre-market macro watch: Fed speak + the data calendar
MarketWatch’s calendar listing shows New York Fed President John Williams scheduled for a TV appearance at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. [15]
Also, keep in mind that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that some releases that were originally scheduled for Dec. 19 (including “Personal Income and Outlays”) were to be rescheduled, which could change what macro traders are focused on during the Friday session. [16]
4) PM-specific “levels” traders will likely reference
From Thursday’s range, two levels will be obvious on many screens:
- Near-term support: around $156.50 (Thursday’s low zone)
- Near-term resistance: around $159.00 (Thursday’s high zone)
A clean break above or below those areas on strong volume would be more informative than small premarket flickers—especially on an expiration day.
5) Remember after-hours mechanics
After-hours trading can be thin. Nasdaq’s own educational guidance highlights that after-hours markets can involve less liquidity and inferior prices, with a strong preference among many market pros for limit orders during extended hours. [17]
That’s relevant tonight because PM was basically flat after-hours—meaning the “real” direction-setting move, if any, is more likely to happen after the opening cross when liquidity returns.
Bottom line for PM heading into Friday’s open
Philip Morris International stock closed at $157.31 on Thursday (Dec. 18, 2025) and was virtually unchanged after hours, suggesting a lack of late-breaking PMI-specific news. [18]
Into Friday (Dec. 19), the biggest variables are likely to be:
- Macro rate expectations after the softer CPI print (and the data-quality caveats noted by Reuters) [19]
- Sector rotation dynamics, with consumer staples lagging Thursday [20]
- Triple witching/expiration effects, which can amplify market-wide noise [21]
- PM-specific calendar items, especially the $1.47 dividend and the Dec. 26 ex-div date, with exchanges confirmed open on Dec. 26 [22]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.pmi.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.pmi.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.britannica.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.bea.gov, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.britannica.com, 22. www.pmi.com
