December 11, 2025
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ: PSNY), the Swedish premium electric-vehicle maker backed by China’s Geely, is having one of its most volatile weeks since listing. After a 1‑for‑30 reverse stock split and a fresh Nasdaq warning, the newly consolidated Polestar stock has swung wildly, crashing to fresh 52‑week lows even as the company reports almost 50% revenue growth for 2025 so far. [1]
As of late trading on December 11, PSNY is changing hands around $12–13 per share (about $12.45 last trade), following a two‑day rout that included a more than 20% plunge on Wednesday and another double‑digit slide today. [2]
Below is a structured look at the latest price action, the reverse split, Polestar’s fundamentals, current analyst forecasts and what investors are watching next.
Polestar stock today: deep in the red after a brutal two‑day sell‑off
On Wednesday, December 10, Polestar’s post‑split shares fell 22.5% in a single session, dropping from $18.18 to $14.09. Intraday, the stock whipsawed between $12.50 and $17.52, a staggering 40% trading range on the day. [3]
Technical research service StockInvest now classifies PSNY as a “Strong Sell” candidate, noting:
- The stock has declined in 7 of the last 10 sessions, down about 18% over that span.
- The price sits in the middle of a “very wide and falling trend”, with a model projecting a possible 46% additional decline over the next three months, implying a 90% probability of trading between roughly $6.21 and $9.68 by the end of that period. [4]
- The adjusted 52‑week range is wide: about $12.50 at the low end and $42.60 at the high end, leaving the stock deeply underwater relative to its peak. [5]
Today’s price around $12.45 means PSNY is not only close to that adjusted 52‑week low but also far below the level at which it debuted after the SPAC combination. [6]
Reverse split, Nasdaq warning and the latest crash
1‑for‑30 reverse split
Polestar executed a 1‑for‑30 reverse stock split / ADS ratio change in early December, effectively turning 30 American depositary shares into 1 new share. [7]
Economically, this does not change the company’s value, but it mechanically boosts the per‑share price. The primary goal: help the company regain compliance with Nasdaq’s $1 minimum bid price rule after PSNY spent much of 2025 trading well below a dollar. [8]
Fresh plunge after split and Nasdaq notice
An article from German market outlet boerse‑global (via Ad‑hoc News) describes the latest rout as a reaction to three intertwined catalysts: [9]
- Reverse split overhang – The split, effective December 9, triggered selling as some investors interpreted it as a sign of distress rather than strength.
- Weak third‑quarter performance – Polestar’s Q3 2025 revenue came in around $748 million, below analyst expectations of more than $900 million, with gross margin sliding to about ‑6.1% and net loss widening to roughly $365 million versus the prior year. Despite 36% revenue growth and a 13% increase in deliveries in the quarter, the path to profitability remains unclear. [10]
- Nasdaq deficiency notice – Nasdaq has issued a formal notice regarding the stock’s prior failure to maintain a $1 closing bid, giving Polestar until April 29, 2026 to regain and sustain compliance. [11]
On December 11, that report notes that Polestar’s shares dropped as much as 26.7% intraday, bottoming around $14.10 before closing sharply lower than the prior $18+ level. [12]
Rapid revenue growth… and mounting losses
Polestar’s core fundamental story remains a study in contrasts: impressive top‑line growth paired with significant and worsening losses.
According to the company’s unaudited results for the first nine months of 2025: [13]
- Revenue:
- $2.171 billion, up 48.8% year‑over‑year from $1.459 billion.
- Retail deliveries:
- 44,482 cars, up 36.5% from 32,595 in the prior‑year period, driven by the introduction of higher‑priced models (Polestar 3 and Polestar 4) and stronger sales in Europe.
- Carbon credit sales:
- About $123 million, beating the company’s target for “three‑digit million‑dollar” carbon credit revenue ahead of schedule.
- Net loss:
- Roughly $1.56 billion, versus about $867 million a year earlier.
- Gross margin:
- A steeply negative ‑34.5%, down from ‑2.1%, largely due to a non‑cash $739 million impairment related to the Polestar 3 programme.
For Q3 2025 alone, Polestar reported: [14]
- Revenue of about $748 million, up 36% year‑on‑year.
- An adjusted gross margin still in negative territory.
- A net loss of $365 million, wider than the prior‑year period.
Earlier in the year, Polestar had reported 84% revenue growth in Q1 2025 and a positive gross margin of around 7%, followed by 56% revenue growth for the first half of 2025, signaling initial progress toward profitability. [15]
However, by the third quarter, higher tariffs, pricing pressure, inventory adjustments and residual value guarantee costs — particularly in North America — had reversed that margin momentum, pulling overall gross profitability back into the red. [16]
Liquidity, debt and funding: life support vs dilution risk
Cash position and debt covenants
As of September 30, 2025, Polestar reported a cash balance of $995 million, nearly doubling from about $501 million a year earlier, and stated that it remained in compliance with its lending covenants, including a cap on total debt of $5.5 billion. [17]
That cash position was boosted by a $200 million private equity investment from PSD Investment Limited, an existing shareholder controlled by Geely’s founder Eric Li, completed in June 2025. [18]
Yet despite stronger liquidity, several commentators still characterize Polestar’s balance sheet as fragile:
- A Bloomberg opinion piece recently highlighted the company’s heavy reliance on debt and the need to keep borrowing within that $5.5 billion ceiling. [19]
- Earlier this year, Seeking Alpha flagged Polestar’s “unsustainable cash burn” and debt load as key reasons for investor anxiety, reinforcing a bearish view on the stock. [20]
ADS ratio reset and future capital raises
Simply Wall St, in a December analysis, notes that by folding the new ADS (American Depositary Share) ratio into its existing registration statements, Polestar has effectively re‑set the mechanics of its capital‑raising toolkit. [21]
The article makes three important points for equity holders: [22]
- Liquidity runway depends on more equity and debt – The recent US$200 million private placement is seen as part of a broader need to raise additional capital in coming years.
- Dilution risk is central to the story – With the company still loss‑making and cash‑constrained, investors must assume further capital raisings that may dilute existing stakes.
- The split doesn’t change fundamentals – Changing the ADS ratio (and executing the reverse split) does not fix the underlying issue: Polestar must eventually convert high revenue growth into sustainable profits to justify its valuation.
In short, the reverse split buys time on Nasdaq compliance and makes the stock look more “respectable” on price, but it does not, by itself, solve Polestar’s funding challenge.
Analyst ratings and price targets: cautious, divided and often pre‑split
Street ratings skew bearish to neutral
Data compiled by MarketBeat in mid‑November — before the reverse split — shows PSNY rated “Reduce” overall, with two Hold ratings and one Sell, and an average target price of about $1.25 per share when the stock was trading near $0.64. [23]
Benzinga’s late‑November stock price prediction article cited a consensus target of roughly $2.34, based on nine analyst ratings, with individual 12‑month targets ranging from $0.78 to $9.00. At that time, the stock traded below $1, so these targets implied substantial upside off a very depressed base. [24]
Crucially, all of these figures were quoted in pre‑reverse‑split terms. With a 1‑for‑30 split, any old price targets must be multiplied by 30 to be comparable to today’s price in the low teens. That means a pre‑split consensus target of $2.34 would correspond to about $70 in post‑split terms, far above where the stock currently trades — which underscores how stale many published targets now are. [25]
Fundamental valuation models
Simply Wall St’s December narrative projects that Polestar could reach roughly $11 billion in revenue and about $560 million in profit by 2028, implying annual revenue growth of over 60% and a swing from a current loss estimated around ‑$2.7 billion. On that basis, the platform’s intrinsic value model suggests a fair value of about $1 per pre‑split share, roughly 58% above the then market price. [26]
Community “fair value” estimates on the same platform span roughly $1.00 to $4.59 (pre‑split), highlighting just how wide the range of expectations is for Polestar’s future. [27]
Again, all of those values would need to be scaled to account for the 1‑for‑30 split to compare with current prices.
Technical outlook: near‑term downside risk
On the technical side, StockInvest’s model expects additional weakness, with its three‑month projection targeting a price range centered in the single‑digit dollars and labeling PSNY as a “Strong Sell candidate” based on moving averages and momentum indicators. The site underscores high volatility and lack of clear support below current levels. [28]
Separately, a Seeking Alpha article published this week argues that Polestar “remains a Sell” despite recent capital injections and the reverse split, citing continuing losses and funding uncertainty. [29]
The upshot: professional and quantitative analysis currently leans cautious to outright negative, even though some pre‑split valuation models point to long‑term upside if Polestar executes its growth plan.
A volatile year: from sub‑$1 penny levels to a post‑split high and back down
In October 2025, PSNY traded below $1, down more than 36% year‑to‑date and roughly 46% over 12 months, according to an earlier Yahoo Finance price‑prediction piece. [30]
On December 9, just after the reverse split, an Investing.com article noted Polestar’s stock had reached an all‑time high (post‑split) of $16.71, yet was still about 61% below its adjusted 52‑week high of $42.60 – and carried a “WEAK” financial health rating from InvestingPro due to negative EBITDA around $1.7 billion and a current ratio of just 0.43. [31]
Two days later, the combination of the split, weak earnings and the Nasdaq notice triggered the current collapse, pushing the shares back toward that adjusted 52‑week low around $12.50. [32]
The picture is clear: even after the cosmetic boost from the reverse split, Polestar is still a deeply loss‑making EV player whose shares have destroyed value over the past year.
Regulatory and EV market backdrop: Polestar joins EU emissions fight
Polestar’s challenges are not purely self‑inflicted. The broader European EV ecosystem has grown more complicated in recent months.
On December 10, nearly 200 stakeholders — including Polestar and Volvo Cars — signed an open letter urging the European Commission not to dilute the EU’s 2035 zero‑emission target for new cars. [33]
The letter warns that: [34]
- Softening CO₂ targets or reopening the door to plug‑in hybrids and “CO₂‑neutral” fuels would create uncertainty and slow the shift to full battery electric vehicles.
- Any delay risks widening Europe’s competitive gap with Chinese EV makers, who are already pressuring prices.
Polestar, which sells predominantly in Europe and China and positions itself as a higher‑end sustainability‑driven brand, is highly exposed to this policy tug‑of‑war. A weakening of regulatory pressure on combustion engines could slow EV adoption at the margin and make it harder for younger players like Polestar to gain share against entrenched incumbents.
At the same time, the company’s ownership structure has shifted more firmly toward China’s Geely group, as Volvo Cars has gradually reduced its stake — leaving Geely‑related entities controlling roughly 80% of Polestar’s equity by mid‑2025. [35]
That backing gives Polestar access to industrial scale and technology, but it also ties its fate more closely to Chinese and European regulatory developments.
Commercial levers: heavy discounting on Polestar 3
To stimulate demand in a tougher market, Polestar has launched a temporary price cut of $18,000 on the 2025 Polestar 3 SUV in some markets, bringing the starting price down to about $49,500 for orders placed before January 2, 2026. [36]
This kind of aggressive discounting underscores two realities:
- Management is focused on driving volumes and utilizing its growing sales network (Polestar now operates in 28 markets with nearly 200 sales points). [37]
- Pricing pressure in the global EV market — intensified by Chinese competition and Tesla’s own cuts — is squeezing margins, one reason Polestar’s gross margin slid back into negative territory in Q3. [38]
Key dates and catalysts for 2026
For investors tracking PSNY into 2026, several upcoming milestones stand out:
- January 2, 2026 – Expiry of the aggressive promotional pricing on the Polestar 3. How demand behaves after the discount ends will offer an early signal of the model’s underlying appeal. [39]
- January 9, 2026 – Polestar has indicated it expects to provide Q4 2025 retail volume figures on this date. [40]
- Early 2026 – Management has previously signaled plans to provide updated financial guidance and a clearer roadmap to breakeven. [41]
- April 29, 2026 – Deadline for Nasdaq bid‑price compliance. If Polestar fails to maintain the required trading price over the specified period, it could face further listing pressure despite the reverse split. [42]
Between now and then, any announcements about additional capital raises, changes to funding arrangements with Geely‑linked entities, or further cost‑cutting measures will likely move the stock sharply in either direction.
Bottom line: high‑growth EV pure‑play with extreme risk
Putting it all together:
- Growth is real – Polestar is delivering double‑digit volume growth and nearly 50% revenue growth in 2025, with an expanded model line‑up and wider geographic reach. [43]
- Profits are not – Gross margins remain negative after Q3, and the company has racked up more than $1.5 billion in losses year‑to‑date. [44]
- Balance sheet risk is high – The firm is reliant on new equity and debt, must respect a $5.5 billion debt cap, and faces the prospect of additional dilution to extend its cash runway. [45]
- Market sentiment is fragile – The 1‑for‑30 reverse split, Nasdaq warning, and a string of analyst downgrades have pushed the stock near its adjusted 52‑week low, with multiple services labeling it a Sell or Strong Sell despite some long‑term upside scenarios in valuation models. [46]
For now, Polestar Automotive stock sits at the intersection of high growth, high leverage and high uncertainty. Bulls are effectively betting that management can translate rapid revenue expansion into sustainable profitability before the company is forced into excessively dilutive or expensive financing. Bears, meanwhile, see a cash‑hungry EV maker fighting in one of the toughest segments of the auto market, with limited margin for error.
References
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