Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock Outlook: Dividend King Near Two‑Year Lows as Wall Street Weighs Tariffs, Jobs Cuts and 2026 Growth

Procter & Gamble Company (The) (NYSE: PG) — the blue‑chip consumer‑staples giant behind Tide, Pampers and Gillette — is suddenly back in the spotlight.

After years of grinding, defensive gains, PG stock has slipped toward two‑year lows, even as the company posts solid earnings, raises its dividend again and commits to tens of billions of dollars in shareholder returns.

As of intraday trading on December 11, 2025, PG is changing hands at around $141 per share, modestly higher on the day. That’s down from a close near $151 on November 21, 2025, a decline of roughly 6–7% in a matter of weeks, and part of a broader 11.9% slide over the last three months. ^[1]

At the same time, Wall Street’s 12‑month price targets sit about 20% above current levels, and P&G’s dividend track record remains one of the strongest in the market. ^[2]

Below is a structured look at everything that has happened around PG stock since November 21, 2025 — including fresh news, forecasts and key bullish and bearish arguments.

1. PG stock performance since November 21, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Procter & Gamble closed at $150.92, after trading between $148.30 and $151.50 on volume of about 12 million shares. ^[3]

From that date to intraday December 11, the stock has:

Fallen from about $151 to around $141 — a drop of roughly 6.5%. ^[4]
Declined 11.9% over the last three months, according to Nasdaq analysis of PG’s recent performance. ^[5]
Tested a two‑year low near $138 on December 2, after comments from the CFO about nervous consumers. ^[6]

Barron’s reported that as of early December, PG was down around 14% for 2025, putting it on pace for its weakest year since 2008. ^[7]

Short‑term volatility has increased:

On December 8, PG fell about 2.9%, helping drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 258 points. ^[8]
The next trading day, PG rebounded roughly 1.2%, contributing to a 132‑point rally in the Dow. ^[9]

For a stock that many investors view as “sleepy,” the last few weeks have been unusually choppy.

2. What changed? Key news since November 21, 2025

2.1 November 21: Flows, product news and a defensive thesis

Several interesting items hit on November 21, 2025 itself:

Swiss National Bank increased its stake, buying about 455,700 shares of PG, according to a MarketBeat filing summary — a vote of confidence from a major institutional investor. ^[10]
NFP Retirement Inc. trimmed its holdings in PG, showing that not all institutional investors are adding to positions at current valuations. ^[11]
P&G announced a new Pantene “Abundant & Strong” haircare collection, positioned to reduce hair shedding and promote healthier, fuller hair — part of its ongoing focus on product innovation and premiumization. ^[12]
A MarketMinute article that day framed PG as a defensive stalwart with “consistent shareholder returns,” underscoring its role as a classic safety stock in a volatile macro environment. ^[13]

Together, these items reinforced the core P&G narrative: a slow‑growth but highly cash‑generative franchise that rewards patient owners.

2.2 December 2: CFO warning and a two‑year low

The real inflection point came on December 2, 2025, when CFO Andre Schulten spoke at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference.

Key takeaways from his comments and subsequent coverage:

Schulten said P&G “knew the consumer was more nervous and cautious”, particularly in the U.S. market. ^[14]
He noted that category sales in the U.S. fell “significantly” in October, in both volume and value, and he did not expect November to look materially better, although this was still consistent with P&G’s full‑year guidance. ^[15]
Schulten described the U.S. backdrop as “the most volatile we have seen in a long time,” citing factors like government instability and shifting benefits programs. ^[16]
Despite the U.S. slowdown, Schulten highlighted “pockets of real strength” in Latin America, China and a recovering Western Europe, implying that the weakness is not global. ^[17]

Markets did not like the tone.

Coverage from The Wall Street Journal and others reported that PG shares fell nearly 3% on December 2 and briefly touched about $138, a two‑year low. ^[18]

That drop, combined with the prior three‑month slide, is what has now pulled PG into “value debate” territory for both bulls and bears.

2.3 Tariffs, price hikes and a $15 billion shareholder‑return plan

Tariffs and restructuring have been building in the background for months, but the latest commentary around them has crystallized during this period.

Earlier this year:

P&G said it expected about $1 billion in pre‑tax tariff costs in fiscal 2026 and announced plans to increase U.S. prices by roughly 5% on about a quarter of its products to offset the hit. ^[19]
The company also revealed a plan to cut up to 7,000 jobs — around 15% of its non‑manufacturing workforce — over two years as part of a broader cost‑cutting and restructuring program. ^[20]

A new Nasdaq analysis published within the last day adds important nuance:

Management now expects tariff costs closer to $500 million, down from the initial $1 billion estimate, thanks to exclusions and easing retaliatory duties. ^[21]
Even with tariffs, P&G plans to return about $15 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026 — roughly $10 billion in dividends and $5 billion in buybacks — funded by robust free cash flow and productivity gains. ^[22]

In other words, tariffs and restructuring are hurting near‑term margins, but they’re not stopping P&G from returning significant capital to investors.

2.4 Earnings: Q1 fiscal 2026 beat and guidance intact

P&G’s latest full quarterly snapshot came on October 24, 2025, when the company reported first‑quarter fiscal 2026 results:

Core EPS of about $1.99, ahead of the roughly $1.90 consensus. ^[23]
Net sales of around $22.4 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year and slightly ahead of analyst expectations. ^[24]
Net earnings attributable to P&G of about $4.75 billion, up roughly 20% versus the same quarter a year earlier. ^[25]

Importantly, P&G maintained its full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance:

Sales growth of 1% to 5%
Core EPS growth of flat to up 4% ^[26]

Those numbers paint a picture of modest but steady growth — not a high‑flying story, but consistent with P&G’s status as a defensive staple.

2.5 Leadership transition: New CEO from January 1, 2026

In the background of all this is a significant leadership change:

In July, P&G announced that CEO Jon Moeller will step down at the end of 2025, becoming executive chairman.
Shailesh Jejurikar, the current Chief Operating Officer and longtime P&G executive, will become CEO on January 1, 2026. ^[27]

The CEO transition is tied to the broader restructuring and tariff‑response strategy. Investors will be watching early 2026 commentary from Jejurikar for any shift in priorities, particularly around pricing, innovation and international expansion.

2.6 Dividend updates: The “Dividend King” stays royal

For income investors, P&G’s dividend story remains a major part of the thesis:

In its fiscal 2025 annual report, P&G highlighted its 69th consecutive annual dividend increase and 135th consecutive year of dividend payments. ^[28]
The most recent declared quarterly dividend is $1.0568 per share, implying about $4.23 per share annually, with an ex‑dividend date of October 24 and payment on November 17. ^[29]
At recent prices in the low‑$140s, that works out to a dividend yield close to 3%, in line with or slightly above PG’s recent history. ^[30]
P&G returned over $16 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 — about $9.9 billion in dividends and $6.5 billion in buybacks. ^[31]

Recent coverage in outlets like Seeking Alpha and MarketMinute has emphasized that this consistency is exactly why P&G is called a “Dividend King” and why the recent pullback is drawing attention from long‑term income investors. ^[32]

Some analysts, however, caution that a rising payout and high valuation, combined with an uncertain consumer backdrop, leave less room for error if growth slows further. ^[33]

2.7 Insider and political buying

Recent filings add a few interesting data points on who is buying PG:

A Form 4 filing shows director Joseph Jimenez receiving an award of 341 restricted stock units on December 9, 2025, under P&G’s 2025 Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan — standard equity compensation that nonetheless aligns board interests with shareholders. ^[34]
A MarketBeat report today notes that U.S. Representative Richard McCormick bought PG shares, highlighting continued interest in the stock among political insiders. ^[35]

While such purchases are small compared with P&G’s roughly $327 billion market cap, they reinforce the perception of PG as a long‑term core holding rather than a speculative trade. ^[36]

3. How Wall Street sees Procter & Gamble stock now

3.1 Consensus ratings and price targets

According to MarketBeat and Barron’s data:

22 Wall Street analysts currently cover PG. ^[37]
The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy”, with 12 Buy ratings and 10 Holds. ^[38]
Consensus 12‑month price targets range from about $151 (low) to $186 (high), with an average near $170. ^[39]
With PG trading around $141, that average target implies roughly 20% upside over the next year. ^[40]

Recent single‑firm moves include:

Bank of America lowering its target from $180 to $174 while retaining a “Buy” rating. ^[41]
JPMorgan nudging its target from $163 to $165 and rating the stock “Neutral”. ^[42]
A recent European note cited by Ad‑hoc News shows Deutsche Bank cutting its target from $176 to $171 and Barclays trimming from $153 to $151, both citing weak U.S. consumer demand. ^[43]

In other words, the direction of travel for targets is slightly down, but most analysts still see upside from today’s depressed price.

3.2 Earnings and valuation metrics

MarketBeat’s earnings dashboard shows: ^[44]

Trailing EPS around $6.85, implying a trailing P/E near 21x at current prices.
Expected EPS growth of about 6% next year, from roughly $6.91 to $7.34.
Free cash flow near $14 billion and operating cash flow above $17 billion, according to Intratio’s AI‑driven analysis, giving P&G significant flexibility to sustain dividends and buybacks. ^[45]

Zacks research currently assigns PG a Rank of #3 (Hold), noting that the stock trades at a forward P/E slightly above the consumer‑staples industry average (about 20.7x vs 19.4x), which supports the idea that PG still commands a premium even after the sell‑off. ^[46]

A long‑term Yahoo Finance analysis suggests that P&G is targeting revenue of around $92.8 billion and earnings near $17.8 billion by 2028, based on roughly 3.3% annual sales growth and continued margin improvement — consistent with a steady compounder, not a hyper‑growth story. ^[47]

4. Bulls vs. bears: What recent analysis says about PG stock

4.1 The bullish case: “Dividend King on sale”

Several recent commentaries frame the current pullback as a buying opportunity:

A Seeking Alpha article titled “The Dividend King Is On Sale Now” argues that PG trading near its 52‑week lows presents an attractive entry point for long‑term investors, especially as tax‑loss selling pressure fades. ^[48]
Simply Wall St finds that PG scores 5 out of 6 on its valuation checks, concluding the stock screens as undervalued on most metrics after the recent slide. ^[49]
The Motley Fool highlights P&G’s history of strong risk‑adjusted returns and notes that fiscal 2025 EPS of about $6.51 easily covered the roughly $4.48 in dividends per share, reinforcing the safety of the payout. ^[50]
Several dividend‑focused outlets continue to list PG among top “Dividend Giants,” noting that tens of billions of dollars of P&G stock are held via ETFs and that the yield near 3% remains attractive. ^[51]

From this viewpoint, PG is a quality compounder that the market is discounting too heavily for what might ultimately be a temporary consumer soft patch.

4.2 The cautious view: Premium valuation, weak U.S. consumer and tariffs

On the other side, a series of notes in recent days and weeks urge caution:

A Nasdaq piece titled “Procter & Gamble Drops 11.9% in 3 Months: Buy the Dip or Stay Wary?” argues that PG’s valuation remains “too stretched”, even after the drop, given its modest growth outlook. ^[52]
Another Nasdaq article asks whether a planned $15 billion shareholder‑return program is enough to offset tariff headwinds, pointing out that even with partial tariff relief, hundreds of millions in extra costs and significant restructuring expenses will weigh on margins. ^[53]
A Seeking Alpha note titled “A Cash Cow That Is Still A Sell” describes P&G as a classic cash generator but argues that slow top‑line growth and high valuation warrant a “Sell” rating. ^[54]
Several research pieces, including those summarized by Zacks, highlight that PG’s forward P/E is still above its industry, even as the Consumer Products–Staples industry itself ranks in the lower half of all industries on Zacks’ relative strength metrics. ^[55]
Dividend‑focused commentators at AInvest caution that a high payout ratio and interest‑rate sensitivity could place the dividend streak under more scrutiny if earnings growth were to falter for multiple years. ^[56]

This camp sees PG as a great company but not necessarily a great stock at any price, especially when bond yields and safer income alternatives remain competitive.

5. Strategic themes to watch going into 2026

Looking ahead, recent news and analysis point to a few key themes that will likely drive PG stock into 2026:

Consumer resilience vs. trade‑down behavior
- Schulten’s comments make clear that U.S. consumers are under pressure, trading down or delaying purchases. ^[57]
- A key question: can P&G’s trade‑up brands and innovation (like premium Pantene and other launches) maintain pricing power if consumer stress persists?
Tariffs and pricing strategies
- P&G is raising prices on about a quarter of its U.S. portfolio to counter tariffs, while also leveraging product upgrades to justify those increases. ^[58]
- The tariff burden has been lowered from roughly $1 billion to about $500 million, but remains a meaningful drag. ^[59]
Restructuring and job cuts
- The 7,000 office‑job reduction and associated $1–1.6 billion restructuring charges are designed to drive long‑term productivity. ^[60]
- Investors will want to see evidence that savings drop to the bottom line rather than being entirely recycled into pricing and promotion.
Leadership transition to Shailesh Jejurikar
- A new CEO often brings fresh priorities, even in a culture as continuity‑oriented as P&G’s.
- Analysts will parse early 2026 commentary to see whether Jejurikar leans more aggressive on innovation, M&A, or geographic expansion. ^[61]
Capital allocation and balance sheet strength
- With free cash flow near $14 billion and modest leverage (debt‑to‑equity around 0.5x), P&G has room to keep funding dividends, buybacks and selective acquisitions — provided earnings stay on track. ^[62]

6. What it all means for investors

Pulling everything together:

The stock
- PG is currently trading in the low $140s, close to a two‑year low near $138 hit after the CFO’s December 2 warning about nervous consumers. ^[63]
- The stock is down roughly 12% over three months and, as of early December, about 14% year‑to‑date. ^[64]
The fundamentals
- P&G is still posting mid‑single‑digit sales growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth, with strong free cash flow and one of the longest dividend‑growth streaks in the world. ^[65]
The valuation
- Even after the pullback, PG trades around 20–21x trailing earnings, a meaningful premium to many other consumer‑staples names, though in line with its long history as a defensive compounder. ^[66]
The debate
- Bulls argue that the current sell‑off has created a rare chance to buy a high‑quality Dividend King at a discount, with a near‑3% yield and roughly 20% upside to consensus targets. ^[67]
- Bears counter that tariffs, job cuts, a soft U.S. consumer and a still‑premium valuation leave limited upside if growth merely muddles along. ^[68]

For investors, PG today looks less like a “set it and forget it at any price” stalwart and more like a classic trade‑off:

If you believe consumer weakness is cyclical, tariffs will gradually ease, and P&G’s brands will continue to command pricing power, then the combination of near‑3% yield and ~20% projected upside could be compelling.
If you worry that inflation‑weary shoppers and political uncertainty will keep volumes under pressure while tariffs and restructuring costs drag on for years, then even a great business might not justify a high‑teens or low‑20s multiple.

Either way, PG remains a central bellwether for the health of the global consumer — and the next few quarters, as a new CEO takes the helm, will be critical in determining whether the recent share‑price slide was a buying opportunity or an early warning sign.