Prudential plc (LON: PRU) Stock – ICICI AMC IPO Windfall, Buybacks, Dividends and 2026 Forecast (Updated 11 December 2025)

Prudential plc’s share price has quietly turned into one of the more interesting growth-plus-income stories on the FTSE 100. The Asia- and Africa-focused insurer is delivering double-digit profit growth, ramping up buybacks, guiding for faster dividend increases – and now unlocking value from a big Indian asset-management IPO.

As of the close on 11 December 2025, Prudential plc (ticker PRU on the London Stock Exchange) was trading around 1,084p per share, according to closing data from Hargreaves Lansdown. ^[1] That’s roughly 70–75% higher than levels around 630–640p a year ago, based on price history data. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis driving Prudential’s stock today.

1. Latest share price and recent performance

London listing (PRU): Closed at about 1,084p on 11 December 2025; bid–offer spread 1,084.0p–1,084.5p. ^[3]
ADR in New York (PUK): Latest closing price is around $29.23 per ADR in early December 2025. ^[4]

On a 12-month view, Prudential’s London shares have climbed from roughly 620–640p in late 2024 to just over 1,080p today, implying a gain of around 70–75%. ^[5]

That rally has been underpinned by:

Strong 2024 and 2025 earnings momentum
A US$2 billion share buyback programme, now in its final tranche ^[6]
Guidance for >10% annual dividend per share growth from 2025 to 2027 ^[7]
A recent credit rating upgrade to ‘AA’ for core entities by S&P Global Ratings, citing robust capital and new-business growth. ^[8]

2. Breaking news: ICICI Prudential AMC IPO and stake sale

The biggest fresh catalyst for Prudential plc this week is in India.

2.1 Pre-IPO stake sale

On 11 December 2025, Reuters reported that Prudential sold a 4.5% stake in ICICI Prudential Asset Management (ICICI Prudential AMC), its Indian asset-management joint venture, for 49 billion rupees (about $545 million). ^[9]

Key details:

ICICI Prudential AMC is a JV between ICICI Bank (51%) and Prudential, which owns the remaining stake.
The 4.5% stake was sold to a group of anchor investors including Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the family offices of Azim Premji and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and several Indian insurers. ^[10]
ICICI Bank also bought a portion of shares alongside these investors. ^[11]

2.2 ICICI Prudential AMC IPO

This follows Prudential’s earlier announcement that the ICICI Prudential AMC IPO will open for subscription on 12 December 2025, seeking to raise about $1.2 billion at an implied valuation of roughly $12 billion. ^[12]

Important points for Prudential shareholders:

Prudential is not injecting new capital into ICICI AMC – the IPO consists of existing shareholders (primarily Prudential) selling shares. ^[13]
The company has increased its planned IPO stake sale to around 10% of ICICI AMC, equivalent to 49 million shares, after a bonus issue increased the share count. ^[14]
In its half-year results and subsequent commentary, Prudential has said it intends to return the net proceeds from any ICICI AMC listing to shareholders, subject to approvals. ^[15]

Why it matters for the stock:
The combination of the 4.5% pre-IPO sale plus the IPO stake disposal could deliver hundreds of millions of dollars in additional distributable capital, on top of ongoing buybacks and ordinary dividends. That strengthens the “capital-return plus growth” narrative the market has been rewarding in 2025.

3. Buyback, dividends and capital returns

3.1 US$2 billion buyback reaching the finish line

On 1 July 2025, Prudential announced the third and final tranche of its US$2 billion share buyback programme. ^[16]

The Third Tranche is sized at US$500 million, following a US$700m first tranche and an US$800m second tranche completed in November 2024 and June 2025 respectively. ^[17]
The buyback is scheduled to run from 1 July 2025 to no later than 24 December 2025. ^[18]
As of the half-year 2025 results, Prudential had already repurchased 72 million shares for $711 million in the year to 30 June and expected to complete the full programme by year-end. ^[19]

Recent regulatory filings on the London Stock Exchange show ongoing daily purchases of PRU shares under this programme in December, confirming that the buyback remains active. ^[20]

3.2 Dividend growth guidance

Prudential’s capital-return story isn’t just about buybacks. In its 2025 half-year results, the company: ^[21]

Reported a 13% increase in the first interim dividend to 7.71 cents per share
Announced guidance for “more than 10% growth in ordinary dividend per share” each year from 2025 to 2027
Flagged additional recurring capital returns from 2026 onwards, with a $500m buyback in 2026 and $600m in 2027 earmarked on top of ordinary dividends
Indicated that it expects to return over $5bn to shareholders between 2024 and 2027, excluding any extra capital returned from the ICICI AMC IPO proceeds

This builds on the 2024 full-year total dividend of 23.13 cents per share, which was already 13% higher year-on-year. ^[22]

Dividend investors will also note that Prudential’s dividend yield remains modest compared with some UK income stocks, but the company’s payout is growing from a lower base – a profile many growth-oriented investors prefer. Data for 2024 shows a yield of about 2.7% on historical prices, with a payout ratio in the mid-20s percent. ^[23]

4. Operational momentum: 2024 results and 2025 so far

4.1 Full-year 2024: strong baseline for growth

In March 2025, Prudential reported its 2024 full-year results, showing: ^[24]

Adjusted operating profit before tax of $3.13 billion, up 10% on a constant-currency basis
New business profit of $3.08 billion, up 11%
Demand led by Hong Kong (APE sales up 5%) and Singapore (APE up 10%), with growth recorded in 18 of 22 markets
Management guiding to >10% growth in new business profit, basic EPS and operating free surplus in 2025, on a constant FX basis

This guidance has since been reaffirmed through 2025 trading updates and third-party analysis. ^[25]

4.2 Half-year 2025: double-digit growth continues

For the six months ended 30 June 2025, Prudential delivered: ^[26]

New business profit up 12% to $1,260m
Operating free surplus from in-force business up 14% to $1,560m
Adjusted operating profit before tax up 6% to $1,644m
Adjusted operating EPS up 12% to 49.3 cents
IFRS profit after tax of $1,359m, versus $182m a year earlier
Strong solvency metrics, including a free surplus ratio of 221% and a group shareholder surplus coverage ratio of 267%

4.3 Q3 2025 business update: Asia still doing the heavy lifting

In its Q3 2025 business performance update (for the three and nine months to 30 September 2025), Prudential highlighted: ^[27]

Q3 new business profit:$705m, up 13% year-on-year
Q3 APE sales:$1,716m, up 10%
9-month 2025 new business profit:$1.964bn, up 12%
New business margin up to 41% in Q3 (from 40% a year earlier)

Market-by-market commentary:

Hong Kong: Another quarter of double-digit new business profit growth, with improving margins as Prudential shifts towards higher-margin health and protection products. ^[28]
Mainland China: CITIC Prudential Life delivered double-digit growth in both volume and new business profit, helped by pre-repricing demand. ^[29]
Indonesia: New business profit was weaker due to civil unrest and a comedown from prior high growth, though margins improved with a move to more traditional, higher-margin products. ^[30]

Ratings agency S&P Global took note, upgrading Prudential’s core entities to ‘AA’ on the back of strong growth and resilient capital, and citing 9-month 2025 new business profit up 12% to $1.96bn. ^[31]

5. Strategy: Asia & Africa growth, health, wealth and digital

Prudential is no longer the broad, multi-regional conglomerate it once was. After spinning off its UK business (now M&G plc) and shrinking its US exposure, it has become a focused Asia- and Africa-centric insurer and asset manager, operating in 24 markets. ^[32]

Strategic pillars include: ^[33]

Growth markets focus: Targeting the under-served insurance and savings needs of nearly four billion people across Asia and Africa, where insurance penetration remains low.
Product mix: Emphasis on life and health insurance plus asset management, with a goal to double health segment new business profit by 2027 versus 2022. ^[34]
Distribution: Heavy use of agency and bancassurance channels, with a multi-channel strategy and investments in productivity across both.
Partnerships: Selective JVs and partnerships, such as the ICICI Prudential businesses in India and a 2025 health-insurance JV with HCL Group in India. ^[35]
Digital transformation: Investment in apps and platforms like Pulse, customer portals and AI-driven tools to support agents and improve underwriting and customer engagement. ^[36]

In short: Prudential is trying to be the go-to provider of health, protection and wealth solutions in emerging, rapidly growing markets, with technology and partnerships doing much of the heavy lifting.

6. Analyst ratings and price targets

6.1 Consensus stance: broadly positive

According to MarketScreener, the analyst consensus on Prudential plc is currently “BUY”, based on 14 analysts. The average target price stands at 12.69 GBP per share versus a recent close around 10.98 GBP, implying upside of about 15–16%. ^[37]

Separately, MarketBeat reports that: ^[38]

The average 12-month target from five analysts is 1,189.4p,
With a range of 1,000p–1,350p,
Representing around 7.5% upside from a reference price of about 1,106p when the data was compiled.

TradingView estimates a somewhat higher average target around 1,320p, with a range that extends above 1,600p at the bullish end and down to around 1,135p at the cautious end. ^[39]

While the exact numbers differ by provider and update timing, the broad picture is clear: most covering analysts see moderate further upside, rather than the kind of deep value discount Prudential traded at in 2022–23.

7. Balance sheet and credit quality

Prudential’s capital position is a significant part of the bull case:

Free surplus ratio of 221% and shareholder surplus coverage of 267% at mid-2025 suggest plenty of headroom over regulatory requirements. ^[40]
S&P Global Ratings upgraded core entities to ‘AA’, citing strong capitalisation, diversified earnings and the company’s ability to keep growing new business profit in its chosen markets. ^[41]

Credit upgrades typically lower funding costs and reassure equity investors that buybacks and dividend growth are being delivered from a position of strength rather than financial engineering.

8. Key risks to the Prudential plc investment story

This isn’t a risk-free ride; investors are being paid to take on some meaningful uncertainties.

8.1 Macro and China exposure

Prudential’s growth is heavily tied to Asian economies. Management itself has highlighted China’s challenging macroeconomic backdrop and lower long-term bond yields as a headwind, even as other markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore grow strongly. ^[42]

A prolonged slowdown or financial stress in any of its core markets could dampen new business, investment returns and solvency ratios.

8.2 Regulatory and political complexity

Operating across 24 different jurisdictions means Prudential faces a patchwork of regulatory regimes and evolving rules. ^[43]

Analyses of the company’s risk profile highlight: ^[44]

Stricter reporting and third-party risk rules from regulators like the UK’s Prudential Regulation Authority
Increasing expectations around operational resilience, AI governance and cybersecurity
Additional scrutiny around capital requirements for international insurance groups

These can increase costs, constrain capital flexibility or delay new product launches.

8.3 Competition and disruption

Prudential is battling local champions and global insurers in most of its markets. In Asia especially, banks, regional insurers and even tech platforms are competing for the same long-term savings and protection customers. ^[45]

The flip side of Prudential’s digital push is that it also opens the door to new fintech competitors, and any mis-step in digital execution could erode the very advantage the company is trying to build.

8.4 Execution on ambitious targets

Management’s targets aren’t shy:

15–20% compound annual growth in new business profit from 2022 to 2027
Operating free surplus generation of at least $4.4bn by 2027
>10% annual growth in EPS and dividend per share in 2025 ^[46]

These are attractive if achieved, but the bar is high. Any shortfall, especially after the strong share-price run in 2025, could prompt a sharp re-rating.

9. Stock outlook for 2026 and beyond

Taking everything together, Prudential plc currently combines:

Solid operational momentum: Double-digit growth in new business profit and operating free surplus in 2024 and 2025 to date. ^[47]
A clear capital-return roadmap: US$2bn buyback completing in 2025, plus planned buybacks in 2026–27 and a commitment to >10% annual dividend growth. ^[48]
Structural growth exposure: Long-term demand for health, protection and retirement products in Asia and Africa, where insurance penetration remains low. ^[49]
Improving perception of risk: S&P’s AA rating and strong solvency metrics support the idea that the balance sheet can comfortably fund both growth and shareholder payouts. ^[50]

On valuation, the stock no longer looks “distressed” after its big 2025 rally, but analyst targets still point to mid-teens percentage upside on a 12-month view, before factoring in dividends and buybacks. ^[51]

The bull case for 2026:

ICICI Prudential AMC’s IPO completes smoothly, with proceeds returned to shareholders. ^[52]
New business growth stays in the low-to-mid-teens, helped by health and protection products in Asia. ^[53]
Dividend and buyback guidance is delivered as promised, supporting total returns.

The bear case:

China’s economy or bond markets deteriorate further, hurting margins and solvency. ^[54]
Regulatory changes increase capital requirements or constrain shareholder payouts. ^[55]
Competitive pressure or operational mis-steps slow growth below the ambitious 15–20% new-business target. ^[56]