QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) heads into Christmas week with investors balancing two big narratives: a fresh, strategically important acquisition in data-center connectivity—and ongoing questions about the long-term shape of its handset business as Apple and broader smartphone demand evolve. Add a holiday-shortened trading week (and typically thinner liquidity), and the next few sessions could amplify both good news and bad. [1]
Below is a week-ahead briefing (as of December 21, 2025) that pulls together the most relevant current news, forward-looking forecasts, and market-moving analyses shaping Qualcomm stock right now—plus a practical calendar of what to watch over the coming sessions.
Where Qualcomm stock stands heading into the week
QCOM finished the last full trading week at $175.25 on Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, after trading between roughly the mid-$170s and low-$180s during December’s most recent two-week stretch. Over the prior five sessions (Dec. 15–19), the stock drifted lower by about 1.7% (from $178.29 on Dec. 12 to $175.25 on Dec. 19), with a noticeable drawdown mid-week before stabilizing into Friday’s close. [2]
From a market-structure perspective, the week ahead is unusual: it includes an early close and a full holiday closure (details below), which often compresses volume and concentrates price discovery into fewer hours. That matters for a large-cap semiconductor name like Qualcomm because lower liquidity can exaggerate moves around headlines, analyst notes, or macro surprises. [3]
The biggest fresh catalyst: Qualcomm completes Alphawave Semi acquisition (Dec. 18)
The most important Qualcomm-specific headline into the week is the company’s announcement that it completed its acquisition of Alphawave Semi on December 18, 2025, about one quarter ahead of schedule. Qualcomm explicitly positioned the deal as a step to accelerate its expansion into the data center, with Tony Pialis (Alphawave Semi CEO and co-founder) set to lead Qualcomm’s data center business. [4]
Why this deal matters for QCOM stock sentiment
Qualcomm framed Alphawave Semi’s core value as high-speed wired connectivity—the plumbing that increasingly determines how efficiently data moves inside AI-centric servers and systems. Management said Alphawave’s connectivity tech complements Qualcomm’s next-generation Qualcomm Oryon CPU and Hexagon NPU processors, and that the combined portfolio can strengthen platforms for next-generation AI data centers. [5]
For investors, this is a meaningful positioning shift: Qualcomm is not just “talking about” data centers—it’s buying the connective tissue required to compete credibly in that environment.
Qualcomm’s AI data center push: AI200 and AI250 chips on the roadmap
This acquisition lands on top of an earlier, market-moving announcement: Reuters reported that Qualcomm unveiled two AI chips for data centers (AI200 and AI250) as part of a diversification push beyond a “stagnant smartphone market,” and that the announcement drove a sharp positive reaction in the stock at the time. Reuters also noted the expected commercialization timeline—AI200 in 2026 and AI250 in 2027—and framed the move as Qualcomm stepping into a competitive arena dominated by NVIDIA and other incumbents. [6]
How to think about it for the week ahead:
The AI200/AI250 story is not a “next-week revenue” catalyst—it’s a valuation and narrative catalyst. But in holiday trading, narrative catalysts can matter more than usual. Investors will likely read the Alphawave close as a reinforcing signal that Qualcomm intends to build a full-stack position (compute + connectivity) rather than dabbling.
Smartphone demand: a new 2026 shipment warning could ripple into QCOM sentiment
While Qualcomm is diversifying, the smartphone ecosystem still drives a major portion of the company’s business and investor perception. A notable piece of late-December macro/industry research came via Reuters: Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to decline 2.1% in 2026, citing rising chip costs and noting that the sub-$200 segment may be hit hardest as bill-of-materials costs increase. [7]
Even though the report is industry-wide (not Qualcomm-specific), it matters because it can influence:
- how investors model unit growth vs. content-per-device (AI features, premium mix),
- expectations for Android OEM pricing power,
- and near-term caution around semiconductor names with handset exposure.
In other words, this is the kind of “macro-to-micro” story that can move QCOM in a thin week even without a Qualcomm press release attached.
Customer concentration and handsets: Samsung share expectations and Apple modem transition risk
Two Qualcomm customer dynamics remain central to the long-term debate:
1) Samsung share expectations (near-term visibility)
Reuters reported on Qualcomm’s November outlook that the company guided above certain analyst expectations for its fiscal first quarter ending in December, and CEO Cristiano Amon discussed how Qualcomm supplied modems for Samsung’s Galaxy S25 models—but also indicated Qualcomm was planning for a lower share in the next generation (Reuters cited a planning assumption of 75% for the Galaxy S26 generation). [8]
2) Apple modem transition and tariff headlines (overhang risk)
Earlier in 2025, Reuters highlighted a key concern weighing on Qualcomm’s handset outlook: Apple’s move toward in-house modems (starting with a February iPhone model Reuters referred to as “iPhone 16e”), which would reduce Qualcomm’s future chip revenue tied to Apple modems. Reuters also noted that renewed U.S. tariff threats on semiconductors were being discussed as a supply-chain risk factor for handset-exposed chip companies—even as certain devices had remained exempt at that time. [9]
Why these matter next week:
They probably won’t “resolve” in a week, but they can drive quick sentiment shifts around analyst notes, sector rotation, or any new Washington / trade headlines—especially in holiday liquidity.
Legal watch: Arm plans to appeal Qualcomm dispute ruling
Legal overhangs can be quiet for months and then suddenly reprice risk. Reuters reported that Arm planned to appeal a final ruling in a licensing dispute with Qualcomm, after a judge declined Arm’s requests that could have undermined Qualcomm’s earlier jury victory. Qualcomm argued the decision affirmed its position and its right to innovate. [10]
This is not necessarily a week-ahead “trading catalyst,” but it remains a background risk factor that can show up in analyst commentary or investor positioning—particularly when the market is already focused on Qualcomm’s CPU and data center ambitions.
Dividend context: cash returns remain part of the QCOM story
Qualcomm announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.89 per share, payable December 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 4, 2025. [11]
In a week where catalysts are mostly narrative-driven (AI/data center) and macro-driven (rates/holiday trading), dividend-paying mega-cap semis can sometimes attract year-end positioning from income and quality-factor investors—though price action ultimately depends on broader risk appetite.
Analyst forecasts and price targets as of Dec. 21, 2025
Analyst sentiment into the week looks broadly constructive—though not unanimous.
Consensus snapshot
MarketBeat’s compilation shows Qualcomm with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, based on 21 analyst ratings, and a consensus price target of $192.94, implying roughly 10% upside from around $175.25 (based on that same dataset). [12]
Notable recent target changes
- Piper Sandler raised its price target to $200 from $175 and reiterated an Overweight view, pointing to a sizable quarterly beat and stronger traction beyond a single large customer narrative. [13]
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $185 from $170 while keeping a Neutral rating, framing semiconductors as positioned to benefit from the early-stage AI infrastructure cycle. [14]
How to use this for the week ahead:
In thin holiday tape, price target changes and rating reiterations can have outsized short-term impact—even when the underlying fundamentals haven’t changed. The spread between bullish targets (~$200+) and more cautious targets (~$185 Neutral) also signals that “execution proof” in data center/AI remains a key market demand.
Macro backdrop: rates and risk appetite matter for semiconductors this week
Semiconductor multiples remain sensitive to rates and the market’s “duration” trade—especially for companies repositioning toward long-cycle AI opportunities.
On December 21, 2025, Reuters reported that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled she saw no need to change U.S. interest rates for months, with the benchmark rate cited in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, after recent cumulative cuts. [15]
That framing—“rates steady for months”—can translate into two competing market interpretations:
- supportive for equities if it reduces volatility around policy surprises, or
- restrictive for high-multiple growth narratives if inflation concerns remain sticky.
For QCOM, which is trying to win credit for a multi-year AI/data center build-out while still carrying handset exposure, that macro ambiguity can show up quickly in the stock.
The week-ahead calendar: trading hours and events to watch (Dec. 22–26)
Market schedule (crucial for liquidity)
- Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025: Markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET (NYSE guidance). [16]
- Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025:U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day. [17]
- Friday, Dec. 26, 2025:Regular full day of trading, and major exchanges stated they remain open as scheduled (despite a federal government closure order for Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 noted by Reuters). [18]
Macro diary highlights (potential sentiment drivers)
S&P Global’s week-ahead preview flags U.S. data including GDP updates, durable goods orders, industrial production, consumer confidence, and new home sales—all the kinds of releases that can shift equity risk appetite and, by extension, semiconductors. [19]
What this means for QCOM traders/investors:
Expect fewer hours and potentially fewer participants. If a surprise macro print hits on a thin day, QCOM can move more than it “should,” purely due to liquidity.
Levels and scenarios to watch for Qualcomm stock
Using recent December trading as a guide, here are practical reference points investors often watch:
- Near-term support zone: ~$172–$174 (recent lows around Dec. 16–18, including a low near $172.05 and closes in the low-$170s). [20]
- Near-term resistance zone: ~$177–$180 (multiple sessions topped in the high $170s/around $180). [21]
- Upper resistance / “reclaim” area: ~$183–$184 (recent highs earlier in December). [22]
Three plausible “week-ahead” paths
- Constructive drift (bullish): Alphawave close + supportive macro tone helps QCOM retest the $177–$180 zone, with investors leaning into the AI/data center narrative. [23]
- Range-bound chop (base case): Holiday liquidity keeps QCOM in a tighter band, with investors waiting for clearer catalysts (including the next earnings window in early 2026). [24]
- Headline-driven dip (bearish): Any negative handset read-through (shipment forecasts, Apple modem commentary, tariff chatter) pushes the stock back toward the low-$170s support area. [25]
Bottom line for the week ahead
As of December 21, 2025, Qualcomm stock enters a holiday-shortened week with a fresh strategic tailwind—the Alphawave Semi acquisition closing early—that strengthens Qualcomm’s credibility in AI compute + data center connectivity. [26]
But the market is still balancing that upside against the real-world smartphone backdrop (including fresh 2026 shipment caution), customer-transition concerns (especially Apple modems), and a macro environment where rates may be steady but inflation sensitivity remains a theme. [27]
In practice, the biggest “week-ahead” variable may simply be liquidity: fewer hours and thinner participation can magnify moves in either direction. [28]
References
1. investor.qualcomm.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. investor.qualcomm.com, 5. investor.qualcomm.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investor.qualcomm.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nyse.com, 17. www.nyse.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.spglobal.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. investor.qualcomm.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. investor.qualcomm.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nyse.com
