December 11, 2025
Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) has moved from a choppy, headline‑driven November to a decisively AI‑centric story in early December, helped by new data‑center chips, a strategic acquisition in RISC‑V CPUs and fresh automotive AI announcements ahead of CES 2026. Since closing in the mid‑$160s on November 21, Qualcomm stock has climbed roughly 9% to about $179.55 in Thursday trading, outpacing many large semiconductor peers. [1]
At the same time, Wall Street forecasts now cluster just above current levels, while technical analysts warn that QCOM looks overbought in the short term even as its long‑term AI and automotive story strengthens. [2]
Note: This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Investors should do their own research or consult a professional before making any investment decisions.
Qualcomm stock today: price, trend and volatility
As of mid‑session on December 11, 2025, Qualcomm shares trade around $179.55, off modestly on the day after a strong recent run.
On Wednesday, December 10, the stock closed at $182.21, up 3.53% and logging its fourth straight daily gain. Despite this rebound, QCOM remains about 11.5% below its 52‑week high of $205.95, set on October 27, when enthusiasm for its new AI data‑center chips sent the stock surging. [3]
From November 21—when technical analysts labelled the stock oversold around $164–165—to today’s levels near $180, Qualcomm has added roughly 9% in market value, reflecting renewed optimism around AI, automotive and new CPU initiatives. [4]
What changed after November 21, 2025?
Record QCT revenue and shareholder returns
A key turning point in sentiment came from renewed focus on Qualcomm’s core chip business, QCT. On November 21, technical research highlighted that:
- QCT generated record annual revenue of about $38.4 billion, up roughly 16% year over year.
- Qualcomm maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.89 per share, or $3.56 annualised, implying a yield around 2.2% at November prices.
- Share buybacks retired close to 2% of outstanding shares over the last fiscal year. [5]
That same analysis noted that, despite the strong fundamentals, QCOM was trading below its 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages at the time, with multiple oscillators flashing oversold—helping explain why the stock rose about 3.1% to $164.52 on November 21 as dip‑buyers stepped in. [6]
Insider and institutional flows
On November 21, an SEC filing showed SVP & CAO Patricia Y. Grech sold 513 shares at an average $160.95, a transaction worth roughly $82,567—a relatively small sale for a senior executive. [7]
More broadly, data compiled by Quiver Quantitative indicates that over the last six months:
- Qualcomm insiders executed 35 open‑market sales and zero purchases, including multi‑tranche sales by CEO Cristiano Amon and CFO/COO Akash Palkhiwala.
- Institutional investors were split, with major firms such as UBS Asset Management and Wellington increasing positions, while others, including BlackRock and a Texas hedge fund, reduced or exited holdings. [8]
This mix of insider selling and institutional rebalancing has kept some investors cautious even as the fundamental story improves.
Earnings recap: Q4 FY 2025 and guidance into 2026
Qualcomm reported fiscal Q4 2025 results on November 5, setting much of the backdrop for trading since late November.
Top‑line and segment performance
Independent analysis of the earnings shows that for Q4 FY25:
- Revenue: about $11.27–11.3 billion, up ~10% year over year and ahead of consensus estimates around $10.8 billion.
- Adjusted EPS:$3.00, beating expectations of roughly $2.88–2.90 per share.
- QCT segment:$9.8 billion in revenue (+13% YoY).
- Handsets: ~$7.0 billion (+14% YoY).
- IoT: ~$1.8 billion (+7% YoY).
- Automotive: ~$1.05–1.1 billion (+17% YoY).
- QTL licensing: about $1.4 billion, down modestly year over year. [9]
Futurum Research and other analysts emphasised that FY25 capped a record year for QCT, with non‑Apple chip revenue up 18% and combined automotive and IoT revenue growing 27%, underlining Qualcomm’s progress in diversifying beyond iPhone modems. [10]
Tax charge and GAAP loss
A complicating factor was a large one‑time tax item:
- Qualcomm recorded a non‑cash tax charge of about $5.7 billion, leading to a GAAP net loss of roughly $3.12 billion for the quarter, even though operating performance was solid. [11]
This accounting hit overshadowed the earnings beat in some headlines, with shares initially trading lower as investors digested the optics of a GAAP loss and revisited long‑standing concerns about Qualcomm’s reliance on smartphones and Apple as a key customer. [12]
Outlook and handset record expected in Q1 2026
Looking ahead, management guided for:
- Q1 FY 2026 revenue in the $11.8–12.6 billion range, roughly in line with Wall Street expectations around $12.08 billion.
- Non‑GAAP EPS between $3.30 and $3.50, compared with consensus near $3.41.
- A record QCT handset revenue in Q1 2026, supported by new Snapdragon‑powered Android flagships. [13]
Analysts at CMC Markets note that while the headline growth trajectory is not as explosive as Nvidia’s or AMD’s, Qualcomm’s edge‑to‑cloud AI roadmap and diversification into automotive and PCs could accelerate revenue if its new data‑center and AI PC bets play out. [14]
AI data‑center chips: AI200 and AI250 change the story
A major driver of the stock’s re‑rating—both before and after November 21—is Qualcomm’s push into AI data‑center accelerators.
On October 27, Qualcomm unveiled two new AI chips for data centers, the AI200 and AI250, targeted at inference workloads for large language models. The AI200 is slated for commercial availability in 2026, with the higher‑end AI250 following in 2027. Both are designed for liquid‑cooled server racks, directly challenging Nvidia and AMD’s offerings in high‑efficiency AI inference. [15]
Following the announcement, QCOM shares jumped as much as 20% intraday, closing up around 11–16% depending on the source, and setting that $205.95 52‑week high. [16]
Research commentary from Futurum and others frames these chips as part of a broader strategy:
- Positioning Qualcomm as a power‑efficient alternative in inference‑heavy AI clusters.
- Leveraging its CPU and connectivity IP from mobile and PC segments.
- Targeting a data‑center AI market that some industry estimates see reaching multi‑trillion‑dollar cumulative spend by 2030. [17]
Bank of America, for example, lifted its QCOM price target from $200 to $215 in early November, arguing that AI200/AI250 could add around $2 billion in annual revenue once ramped, if Qualcomm secures meaningful design wins. [18]
The flip side, as several analysts caution, is execution risk: if these chips fail to gain traction against entrenched Nvidia and AMD platforms, AI hopes embedded in Qualcomm’s valuation could unwind. [19]
Ventana Micro Systems acquisition and RISC‑V strategy
The newest strategic development is Qualcomm’s acquisition of Ventana Micro Systems, announced in a Qualcomm press note on December 10, 2025 and elaborated in third‑party coverage. [20]
Ventana specialises in high‑performance RISC‑V CPU designs. According to industry reporting, the deal is intended to:
- Deepen Qualcomm’s RISC‑V capabilities and custom CPU roadmap.
- Allow Qualcomm to develop Arm and RISC‑V cores in parallel, giving it more flexibility across data‑center, PC and embedded markets. [21]
Commentators also note the timing: Qualcomm has had a contentious legal history with Arm over prior acquisitions, and owning more in‑house RISC‑V expertise gives it an alternative path should licensing relationships change. [22]
TradersUnion’s latest technical note ties the Ventana acquisition directly to the 3.55% jump to $182.24 reported today, framing the deal as another AI‑aligned catalyst now being priced into the stock. [23]
Automotive AI and CES 2026: Qualcomm and LG team up
Automotive remains one of Qualcomm’s fastest‑growing businesses, with Q4 FY25 automotive revenue topping $1.0–1.1 billion, up about 17% year over year. [24]
This week brought fresh validation:
- LG Electronics announced it will showcase an AI Cabin Platform at CES 2026 in Las Vegas (January 6–9), a next‑generation in‑vehicle experience that uses generative AI for personalized cabin features.
- The platform will run on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Cockpit Elite high‑performance automotive computing systems, further embedding Qualcomm’s silicon inside next‑generation software‑defined vehicles. [25]
At the same time, Qualcomm’s own CES 2026 preview emphasizes an “AI from the edge to the cloud” theme, tying together smartphones, AI PCs, automotive, XR and industrial IoT under a unified software and hardware ecosystem. [26]
For investors, these announcements reinforce a thesis that automotive could grow into a multi‑billion‑dollar annual revenue stream by the late 2020s, supporting a higher, more diversified earnings base if Qualcomm keeps winning design slots. [27]
Dividends, buybacks and updated governance
Capital return has been another important part of the recent narrative:
- Qualcomm returned roughly $3.4 billion to shareholders in the most recent quarter through dividends and share repurchases.
- The company has declared another $0.89 per‑share dividend, payable on December 18, 2025. [28]
In parallel, Qualcomm’s board updated its bylaws on December 9, adding provisions related to shareholder rights and clarifying the authority of its Executive Committee. These governance tweaks come amid an environment of heightened scrutiny of tech giants’ capital allocation and M&A strategy. [29]
Wall Street forecasts: modest upside, AI premium
Across multiple data providers, the consensus view on QCOM is constructive but not euphoric.
- MarketBeat and other aggregators show around 20–25 analysts covering the stock, with an average 12‑month price target near $191–194 per share, implying roughly 6–8% upside from current levels. [30]
- Quiver Quantitative, tracking the most recent nine price targets, reports a median target of $200, with individual calls ranging from $165 on the low end (Wells Fargo) to $225 (Rosenblatt), and $215 at Bank of America. [31]
- Analyst rating distributions skew heavily positive: recent updates show multiple “Buy” or “Outperform” ratings and no fresh “Sell” recommendations, reflecting confidence in Qualcomm’s AI, PC and automotive roadmap despite smartphone headwinds. [32]
Separate model‑driven services and technical forecasters are more mixed:
- TradersUnion’s quantitative models see short‑term consolidation between roughly $176 and $184, with support near $171 and key resistance in the $183–185 band. [33]
- At least one AI‑based forecasting site (Intellectia) recently projected a steep potential drawdown of more than 30% over the next month, illustrating how algorithmic projections can differ sharply from mainstream analyst targets. [34]
For long‑term investors, the takeaway is that street estimates now price in a meaningful AI and automotive premium, but not a moon‑shot scenario: upside exists, but much of the good news around AI200/AI250, AI PCs and automotive may already be partially reflected in the current valuation.
Regulatory, competitive and concentration risks
Several risk factors could constrain Qualcomm stock despite the recent rally.
China antitrust probe over Autotalks acquisition
On October 10, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm’s acquisition of Israeli automotive‑chip firm Autotalks, citing concerns that the deal was completed without required Chinese approval. [35]
Legal analyses point out that:
- A purely procedural violation of China’s Anti‑Monopoly Law could result in a fine of up to RMB 5 million.
- If competitive harm is found, penalties can reach up to 10% of Qualcomm’s prior‑year sales, and in especially serious cases, fines may be increased by a factor of two to five—though such extremes are considered rare. [36]
Given that China is Qualcomm’s largest market by revenue, regulatory outcomes here matter both financially and symbolically.
Apple and handset reliance
Both MLQ.ai and CMC Markets highlight the lingering risk around Qualcomm’s Apple exposure:
- Apple has begun rolling out in‑house C‑series modems, with expectations it will gradually phase out Qualcomm modems by 2027.
- Non‑Apple QCT revenue is growing, but any missteps in diversifying away from iPhone sockets could weigh on future earnings. [37]
AI competition and execution
Qualcomm is entering data‑center AI against Nvidia and AMD, which currently dominate GPU and accelerator spending. Nvidia’s data‑center revenue, for example, vastly exceeds Qualcomm’s current AI footprint. [38]
If AI200 and AI250 fail to secure major cloud or enterprise wins, Qualcomm could end up with a niche position in AI, while still carrying the valuation expectations of a broader AI play.
Valuation and technical overextension
Short‑term technical analyses from traders’ desks and platforms like TradersUnion show QCOM:
- Trading well above its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a bullish structure.
- Exhibiting overbought readings on several oscillators (Stoch RSI, CCI, some breadth indicators), even as MACD and RSI remain positive. [39]
This setup supports a bullish intermediate trend, but also raises the odds of sideways price action or a pullback if macro conditions or company‑specific headlines turn negative.
Technical snapshot: from oversold to “cautious bull”
Putting the technical narrative together:
- Late November: QCOM dipped into the mid‑$160s, with multiple indicators marking oversold conditions and analysts calling for a sideways to slightly downward trading band around $162–168. [40]
- Early December: A string of AI catalysts—the AI200/AI250 buzz, stronger‑than‑expected Q4 numbers and renewed automotive enthusiasm—helped push the stock back above all key moving averages, with short‑term models now projecting a consolidation zone in the high‑$170s to low‑$180s and resistance near $185. [41]
In short, the “panic selloff” phase has passed, but QCOM is no longer cheap on a near‑term basis. Momentum is with the bulls, yet late buyers are relying on continued execution in AI, automotive and RISC‑V to justify further upside.
Bottom line: Qualcomm’s November 21 pivot and the 2026 outlook
Since November 21, 2025, Qualcomm stock has moved from an oversold, tax‑charge‑tainted earnings story to a more coherent AI‑and‑automotive growth narrative:
- Fundamentals: Record QCT revenue, double‑digit growth in handsets, IoT and automotive, and strong free cash flow underpin the business. [42]
- Strategy: AI data‑center chips (AI200/AI250), the Ventana RISC‑V acquisition and automotive AI partnerships (like LG’s AI Cabin Platform) expand Qualcomm’s reach beyond phones into infrastructure and software‑defined vehicles. [43]
- Shareholder returns: A near‑2% dividend yield, sizable buybacks and updated governance keep capital allocation in focus. [44]
- Valuation & risk: Consensus price targets offer modest upside from today’s price, with regulatory, Apple‑related and competitive risks all capable of changing the narrative quickly. [45]
For investors watching QCOM into 2026, the key questions are:
- Can Qualcomm convert AI buzz into meaningful, high‑margin data‑center revenue?
- Will automotive, IoT and AI PCs offset any eventual Apple modem roll‑off?
- How will Chinese regulators ultimately treat the Autotalks and broader M&A strategy?
References
1. tradersunion.com, 2. tradersunion.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. tradersunion.com, 5. tradersunion.com, 6. tradersunion.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.quiverquant.com, 9. futurumgroup.com, 10. futurumgroup.com, 11. mlq.ai, 12. mlq.ai, 13. www.cmcmarkets.com, 14. www.cmcmarkets.com, 15. www.cmcmarkets.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.tikr.com, 18. www.cmcmarkets.com, 19. www.cmcmarkets.com, 20. www.qualcomm.com, 21. www.theregister.com, 22. www.theregister.com, 23. tradersunion.com, 24. futurumgroup.com, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. www.qualcomm.com, 27. futurumgroup.com, 28. tradersunion.com, 29. tradersunion.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.quiverquant.com, 32. www.quiverquant.com, 33. tradersunion.com, 34. intellectia.ai, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.lexology.com, 37. mlq.ai, 38. www.cmcmarkets.com, 39. tradersunion.com, 40. tradersunion.com, 41. tradersunion.com, 42. futurumgroup.com, 43. www.cmcmarkets.com, 44. tradersunion.com, 45. www.quiverquant.com
