QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) stock traded around $174.78 on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, modestly higher on the session after moving between roughly $173.47 and $175.27. Volume in the latest session was about 2.6 million shares, pointing to a relatively calm tape heading into a holiday-shortened stretch for U.S. markets.
For investors following Qualcomm stock, the story late in 2025 is less about one headline and more about how several strategic threads are converging: a newly completed connectivity acquisition aimed at the data-center roadmap, a near-term earnings outlook still tied to premium smartphones (and customer concentration risk), and Wall Street’s ongoing debate about how quickly Qualcomm’s next growth engines—AI PCs, automotive, and AI infrastructure—can scale.
What’s driving Qualcomm stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Three “fresh” items are shaping the news flow around Qualcomm shares today:
- Post-close mechanics tied to the Alphawave transaction: A U.K. company announcement dated Dec. 23 detailed the “prevailing market exchange rate” used for shareholders who elected to receive sterling cash consideration under the Alphawave scheme. [1]
- Takeover-code disclosures: A separate Dec. 23 filing under the U.K. Takeover Code (Form 8.3) reflected required disclosures from a market participant connected to the transaction process. [2]
- The bigger narrative: Qualcomm’s transition from “smartphone chip leader” to a broader AI compute-and-connectivity platform company—now visibly reinforced by the Alphawave integration plan and the company’s AI data-center product roadmap. [3]
Individually, these headlines don’t change Qualcomm’s fundamentals overnight. Together, they reinforce what investors have been pricing all year: Qualcomm’s success in 2026 and beyond hinges on expanding profit pools beyond handsets while defending its core modem and licensing franchises.
Qualcomm completes Alphawave Semi acquisition—and the Dec. 23 exchange-rate update
Qualcomm announced on December 18, 2025 that it completed its acquisition of Alphawave IP Group plc (Alphawave Semi) about one quarter ahead of schedule. Qualcomm positioned the deal as a way to accelerate its expansion into the data center by adding high-speed wired connectivity capabilities that complement Qualcomm’s next-generation Oryon CPU and Hexagon NPU processors. Qualcomm also said Tony Pialis, Alphawave Semi’s CEO and co-founder, will lead Qualcomm’s data center business. [4]
On December 23, a related U.K. announcement disclosed the prevailing market exchange rate used for the foreign exchange facility in the scheme process: $1.00:£0.7417. The same notice reiterated that shareholders who did not make a valid currency election would receive US$2.48 per Alphawave scheme share, while those electing sterling cash would receive £1.83 per scheme share (rounded to two decimals). [5]
Why this matters for QCOM stock holders: it’s a reminder that Qualcomm is not merely talking about AI infrastructure—it is actively building the “plumbing” (compute + connectivity) needed to compete in data centers, where connectivity and chiplet ecosystems are increasingly strategic.
Earnings recap: strong FY2025 revenue, a notable GAAP hit, and upbeat Q1 FY2026 guidance
Qualcomm’s most recent earnings cycle set the near-term baseline for QCOM stock.
FY2025 results (what Qualcomm reported)
In its fiscal 2025 results release (year ended Sept. 28, 2025), Qualcomm reported GAAP revenue of $44.284 billion and GAAP EPS of $5.01, with non-GAAP revenue of $44.141 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $12.03. [6]
For the fiscal fourth quarter, Qualcomm reported revenue of $11.270 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.00 (with segment performance led by its chip business). [7]
Segment mix: handsets still lead, but auto and IoT remain key growth pillars
Qualcomm’s QCT (chip) segment showed year-over-year expansion, with Q4 QCT revenue $9.821B and QTL (licensing) revenue $1.409B. [8]
Within QCT, the quarter showed:
- Handsets:$6.961B (Q4)
- Automotive:$1.053B (Q4)
- IoT:$1.807B (Q4) [9]
The headline GAAP drag: a $5.7B non-cash tax charge
Qualcomm disclosed that recent U.S. tax legislation resulted in a non-cash $5.7 billion charge (or $5.29 per share) in fiscal Q4 to establish a valuation allowance against certain deferred tax assets—affecting GAAP results while being excluded from non-GAAP metrics. [10]
This GAAP/non-GAAP divergence is important for investors comparing Qualcomm across peers: the market tends to focus on operating momentum (revenue, segment trends, guidance), but large accounting items can drive headline EPS volatility and short-term sentiment.
Qualcomm’s Q1 FY2026 outlook: revenue $11.8B–$12.6B; non-GAAP EPS $3.30–$3.50
For the fiscal first quarter ending in December, Qualcomm guided:
- Revenue:$11.8B to $12.6B
- QCT revenue:$10.3B to $10.9B
- QTL revenue:$1.4B to $1.6B
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$3.30 to $3.50 [11]
Reuters also reported that Qualcomm’s forecast midpoint was above analyst expectations at the time, with commentary emphasizing a premium smartphone upgrade cycle tied to AI-capable devices. [12]
The biggest swing factor for Qualcomm stock: premium smartphones—and customer concentration
Despite Qualcomm’s diversification push, the company is still closely tied to the smartphone ecosystem, and investors remain sensitive to customer concentration headlines.
In early November, Reuters reported that Qualcomm expected its share of modem chips in Samsung’s next-generation Galaxy S26 lineup to be about 75%, down from 100% in recent models—an example of how large OEM mix shifts can influence the QCOM narrative even when demand is healthy. [13]
At the same time, Reuters highlighted management’s view that consumers have been upgrading from mid-tier phones to premium devices to run more capable AI applications—supportive for Qualcomm’s high-end Snapdragon mix. [14]
For QCOM stock investors, the tension is clear:
- Bullish: premium device mix can lift chipset ASPs and margins.
- Bearish: large customers have leverage, and some are pursuing in-house modems or dual-sourcing, which can cap upside even in strong smartphone demand cycles.
The “next Qualcomm” thesis: data-center AI chips + connectivity, not just phones
Qualcomm’s longer-term equity story increasingly hinges on whether it can carve out meaningful share in AI infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Qualcomm unveiled two AI data-center chips—AI200 and AI250—aimed at inference workloads, with commercial availability expected in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Qualcomm also introduced rack-scale systems and said Humain (an AI startup launched by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund) plans to deploy 200 megawatts of the new AI racks starting in 2026. [15]
This is where the Alphawave Semi acquisition fits: Qualcomm is trying to pair compute (CPU/NPU) with high-speed wired connectivity and chiplet-era building blocks—the combination data centers require for scaling performance efficiently. [16]
Arm relationship update: shifting to newer Arm tech to compete on AI performance
Qualcomm’s CPU strategy is also part of the QCOM investment case, especially as competition heats up in AI phones and AI PCs.
Reuters reported that Qualcomm shifted its flagship chips to Arm’s newer v9 architecture, which includes features aimed at improving AI performance—an important note given Qualcomm’s prior legal dispute with Arm and growing competition with Apple and MediaTek. [17]
Separately, Qualcomm’s investor relations site posted a September update stating the company achieved a “complete victory” over Arm in litigation challenging licensing agreements, with final judgment entered in Qualcomm’s favor. [18]
For investors, these two developments reduce one overhang (license uncertainty) while underscoring a key reality: Qualcomm’s competitiveness depends on leading CPU/NPU roadmaps and software enablement just as much as modem leadership.
Regulatory and geopolitical risk: China remains a key variable
One of the largest macro risks for Qualcomm stock is regulatory/geopolitical exposure—especially in China.
In October, Reuters reported that China opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm over its Autotalks deal, focused on whether Qualcomm violated China’s antitrust law by not lawfully declaring certain details. Reuters also noted that Qualcomm derived 46% of fiscal 2024 revenue from customers headquartered in China. [19]
Even if this probe ultimately proves manageable, it’s a reminder that QCOM investors are not only underwriting technology execution—they’re underwriting cross-border regulatory and trade uncertainty.
Analyst forecasts for QCOM stock: where price targets stand heading into 2026
Analyst targets vary by firm and methodology, but the late-December consensus range clusters above the mid-$170s trading zone.
- TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $198.93 (high $225, low $165) based on 17 analysts in the past three months, implying low-double-digit upside from recent levels. [20]
- Investing.com lists an average target around the low-$190s, with the same broad range up to $225 on the high end and the high-$150s on the low end. [21]
- BofA Securities raised its Qualcomm price target to $215 from $200 while keeping a Buy rating (per an Investing.com report). [22]
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $185 from $170 while maintaining a Neutral rating (per TipRanks/The Fly). [23]
How to read this as a QCOM stock investor: the Street is broadly constructive, but not uniformly aggressive—suggesting analysts are “paying up” for diversification progress while still discounting execution and customer concentration risks.
Qualcomm stock technical picture: mixed signals near $175
From a short-term technical lens, Investing.com’s indicator snapshot around Dec. 23 showed a mixed-to-cautious setup, with RSI near neutral and several indicators leaning “sell,” even as some oscillators point to counter-trend improvement. [24]
Meanwhile, an Investing.com analysis published last week described Qualcomm’s 2025 move as a “monster rally” with a catch—arguing the stock’s strong run has been real, but that sustaining upside depends on whether new growth narratives (AI, PCs, data center) translate into durable earnings power. [25]
Shareholder returns: dividends and buybacks remain part of the QCOM story
Qualcomm continues to return large amounts of cash to shareholders via dividends and repurchases.
In fiscal 2025, Qualcomm reported:
- $8.791B in share repurchases (about 56 million shares)
- $3.805B in dividends paid
- $12.596B total capital returned [26]
Qualcomm’s investor relations dividend history also shows a quarterly cash dividend of $0.89 per share payable in December 2025 (with record-date details included on the company’s site). [27]
For many investors, this capital return policy is a meaningful support under the stock—especially during periods when handset cycles soften or when the market becomes impatient waiting for new businesses to scale.
What QCOM investors are watching next
The next major catalyst is Qualcomm’s Q1 FY2026 earnings conference call, scheduled for February 4, 2026 (1:45 p.m. PT). [28]
Key questions likely to shape Qualcomm stock into 2026:
- Does handset strength remain concentrated in premium tiers, and can Qualcomm protect share as OEMs pursue in-house modems? [29]
- What milestones will Qualcomm disclose on AI infrastructure commercialization (AI200/AI250 systems and customer pipeline)? [30]
- Can automotive and IoT growth continue to compound fast enough to reduce dependence on handsets over time? [31]
- How does the China regulatory backdrop evolve, given Qualcomm’s sizable revenue exposure tied to customers headquartered in China? [32]
Bottom line: As of Dec. 23, 2025, Qualcomm stock is holding near the mid-$170s while investors weigh a steady near-term earnings outlook against a high-stakes multi-year pivot: turning AI compute + connectivity ambitions into material, repeatable revenue streams—without giving back too much of its handset advantage along the way. [33]
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. investor.qualcomm.com, 4. investor.qualcomm.com, 5. markets.ft.com, 6. s204.q4cdn.com, 7. s204.q4cdn.com, 8. s204.q4cdn.com, 9. s204.q4cdn.com, 10. s204.q4cdn.com, 11. s204.q4cdn.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investor.qualcomm.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investor.qualcomm.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. s204.q4cdn.com, 27. investor.qualcomm.com, 28. investor.qualcomm.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. s204.q4cdn.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. investor.qualcomm.com
