Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) is back in the spotlight as 2025 winds down. As of the afternoon of December 4, 2025, the stock is trading around $174–175 per share, giving the company a market value of roughly $187 billion. [1] Year‑to‑date total return sits in the mid‑teens, slightly ahead of the broader market but far below the explosive gains seen in some headline AI names. [2]
At the same time, Qualcomm has just hit a key dividend record date, is benefiting from upgraded earnings forecasts, and continues to roll out an aggressive AI and data‑center strategy that could reshape its long‑term growth profile.
Below is a deep dive into the latest Qualcomm stock news, forecasts, and analysis as of December 4, 2025, structured for readers following QCOM on Google News and Discover.
1. Qualcomm stock snapshot on December 4, 2025
- Share price: about $174.4 intraday.
- 52‑week range: roughly $120.80 – $205.95, with the high set in late October. [3]
- YTD performance: mid‑teens total return (around 15–16% including dividends), according to multiple performance trackers. [4]
- Trend: shares have rebounded from a pullback toward the $160 area and remain well below their recent highs, leaving room for upside if momentum continues. [5]
On a valuation basis, recent institutional coverage pegs Qualcomm at a price/earnings ratio around the mid‑30s on trailing GAAP earnings, but nearer low‑teens on forward earnings, with a PEG ratio around 3.7. [6] For investors, that places QCOM in the “reasonably priced quality compounder” bucket rather than in the nose‑bleed AI multiple camp.
2. What’s moving Qualcomm today? Fresh headlines for December 4, 2025
2.1 Zacks: earnings estimates are moving higher
A new Zacks note published today highlights that Wall Street’s earnings estimates for Qualcomm are still being revised upward:
- Fiscal 2026 EPS estimate has been raised about 2% to $12.14.
- Fiscal 2027 EPS estimate is up 3% to $12.65. [7]
Zacks ties rising estimates to growing confidence in Qualcomm’s Snapdragon platforms, AI‑driven devices and diversification beyond smartphones, and argues that upward revisions have historically been a positive signal for stock performance.
2.2 Insider Monkey: “Bull case theory” with AI at the center
Insider Monkey today published “QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): A Bull Case Theory,” summarizing a bullish Substack thesis (Uncle Stock Notes) on the company. Key points from that write‑up: [8]
- Qualcomm is presented as a “multi‑dimensional tech powerhouse” with growth across mobile, automotive and IoT.
- The mobile division is described as benefiting from an AI‑driven upgrade cycle using chips like Snapdragon 8 Gen 5, enabling on‑device generative AI.
- Automotive revenue is cited near $1 billion per quarter, supported by long‑term “design‑win” contracts via Snapdragon Digital Chassis.
- IoT revenue in the thesis is running in the vicinity of $1.6–1.8 billion per quarter, including smart home, industrial and AI PC‑related demand.
- The article notes Qualcomm’s Q4 FY25 revenue of $11.27 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $3.00, plus Q1 FY26 guidance around $12.2 billion in revenue and $3.40 EPS, and suggests a DCF fair‑value range of $195–$220 per share.
That puts the implied fair value 12–25% above today’s price range and frames QCOM as an under‑appreciated AI infrastructure play, although the piece also flags risks such as Apple’s potential modem independence, Chinese competition and cyclicality in auto/IoT.
2.3 Analyst and media coverage: “overlooked AI stock”
On the media side, Motley Fool / Nasdaq are running a piece today asking whether Qualcomm is “the most overlooked AI stock trading today”. The article emphasizes three broad ideas: [9]
- Qualcomm is “finally pulling the right strings” to make a real dent in AI.
- Its growth has picked up recently and may be sustainable.
- Valuation remains attractive versus other AI chipmakers, with Qualcomm trading at a discount to some higher‑flying peers.
For investors watching the AI theme but wary of stretched valuations, this kind of framing is important: QCOM is increasingly being positioned as a “second‑tier AI winner at a first‑tier price” rather than as a pure handset play.
2.4 New institutional flows: Quantbot & Great Diamond add QCOM
Two MarketBeat pieces dated December 4, 2025 highlight fresh institutional activity in QCOM: [10]
- Great Diamond Partners LLC boosted its stake by 241% in Q2, now holding 5,344 shares valued around $851,000.
- Quantbot Technologies LP increased its QCOM position by about 140%, to 23,883 shares worth roughly $3.8 million.
MarketBeat notes that approximately 74% of Qualcomm’s shares are held by institutions, reinforcing the idea that QCOM remains a core institutional holding.
At the same time, MarketBeat points out heavy insider selling in recent months, including:
- Around 164,000 shares sold over 90 days (~$27 million in value),
- Transactions involving the CFO and other senior executives. [11]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble—executives diversify and exercise options—but it’s a notable counterweight to the institutional buying narrative.
2.5 Technical tone: “The bulls are back”
Another MarketBeat article from yesterday titled “The Bulls Are Back — Why Qualcomm Stock Is Gaining Strength Again” argues that QCOM’s bounce off the $160 area keeps the longer‑term uptrend intact: [12]
- The stock is trading in a rising channel,
- RSI has turned higher from oversold levels,
- MACD has flipped bullish,
- And analysts’ average price target still sits well above the current quote.
For shorter‑term traders, the $160 level appears to be a key support line, with resistance closer to the previous high near $205.
3. Dividend record date and income profile
Dividends matter for Qualcomm—especially for long‑term, income‑oriented investors.
- In October 2025, Qualcomm’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.89 per share, payable on December 18, 2025.
- The record date is today, December 4, 2025, meaning investors needed to own shares before the ex‑dividend date to qualify for this payment. [13]
Based on the current share price, that equates to:
- An annualized dividend of $3.56,
- A forward yield of roughly 2.0%,
- And a dividend growth streak of about 22 years, with payout ratio around 70% of GAAP earnings but supported by very strong free‑cash‑flow coverage. [14]
According to StockAnalysis, Qualcomm generated about $12.8 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months (roughly $12 per share), giving it a free‑cash‑flow yield close to 7% even after funding the dividend. [15]
In its FY25 commentary, the company also noted that it returned nearly all free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, underscoring its capital‑return focus. [16]
4. Earnings recap: record Q4, big tax hit and strong FY25
Qualcomm’s most recent earnings report (Q4 and fiscal 2025, announced in early November) is the anchor for much of today’s analysis. Highlights from multiple summaries and the company’s own commentary: [17]
4.1 Headline financials
- Q4 FY25 revenue: about $11.3 billion, above the high end of guidance and up around 10% year‑on‑year.
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.00, beating consensus (around $2.87–2.88).
- GAAP results: a net loss driven by a $5.7 billion non‑cash tax charge, linked to U.S. tax legislation branded the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” This charge reduces the value of deferred tax assets but is expected to lower cash tax payments in future years. [18]
For the full fiscal year 2025:
- Non‑GAAP revenue: about $44 billion, up 13% year‑over‑year.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: roughly $12.03, up about 18%.
- Free cash flow: a record near $12.8 billion. [19]
4.2 Segment performance
Qualcomm’s chip business (QCT) and licensing arm (QTL) both contributed:
- QCT Q4 revenue:$9.8 billion, up low‑teens year‑on‑year, with EBT of $2.9 billion and an EBT margin around 29%.
- QTL revenue: about $1.4 billion, with margins above 70%. [20]
Within QCT: [21]
- Handsets: around $7.0 billion in Q4 revenue, roughly 14% year‑over‑year growth, powered by premium Android devices running Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5.
- IoT: roughly $1.8 billion, up mid‑single digits in the quarter but around 22% growth for the full year.
- Automotive: passed the symbolic $1 billion quarterly revenue mark for the first time, with mid‑teens growth in Q4 and around 36% growth for FY25.
For FY25 overall, QCT delivered about $38.4 billion in revenue, up 16% with all major sub‑segments growing double digits. [22]
4.3 Outlook: Q1 FY26 guidance
For Q1 FY26, Qualcomm is guiding to: [23]
- Total revenue:$11.8–$12.6 billion,
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.30–$3.50,
- QCT revenue:$10.3–$10.9 billion (with record handset revenue expected),
- QTL revenue:$1.4–$1.6 billion,
- Non‑GAAP tax rate: around 13–14% going forward, after the tax‑law‑related reset.
The company reiterated ambitious fiscal 2029 targets: about $8 billion in Automotive revenue and $14 billion in IoT revenue, indicating that management sees substantial runway beyond smartphones. [24]
5. Strategic growth drivers: AI, PCs, data centers, automotive and IoT
5.1 AI smartphones and on‑device intelligence
Qualcomm’s long‑standing core is mobile, but the story is shifting from “just 5G” to on‑device AI:
- The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 platform powers a wave of AI‑enhanced Android flagships, enabling features like on‑device translation, generative image editing and personal assistants without needing the cloud. [25]
- Handset revenue growth in Q4 shows that premium Android demand has recovered, even though global smartphone unit growth remains modest.
This is crucial: as AI features become table stakes for high‑end phones, Qualcomm’s NPU and CPU advantage in power‑efficient mobile chips positions it well versus both MediaTek and internal silicon from OEMs.
5.2 AI PCs: Snapdragon X2 Elite and the “AI laptop” wave
Qualcomm is also betting big on AI‑capable Windows laptops:
- The company has launched Snapdragon X2 Elite and X2 Elite Extreme platforms, aimed squarely at premium Windows AI PCs.
- Qualcomm claims these platforms offer industry‑leading AI performance per watt, with an NPU billed as one of the fastest AI engines in a laptop, while still extending battery life. [26]
- Management expects around 150 Snapdragon‑powered AI PC designs to reach the market through 2026, in partnership with Microsoft and major OEMs. [27]
If AI PCs take off, Qualcomm could carve out meaningful share from Intel and AMD in premium notebooks—something most investors would have considered far‑fetched a few years ago.
5.3 Entry into the AI data‑center race
Perhaps the biggest strategic shift is Qualcomm’s push into AI inference in the data center:
- Qualcomm announced dedicated AI200 and AI250 data‑center chips and rack‑scale systems aimed at high‑efficiency AI inference, with deployments expected to ramp from 2026–2027. [28]
- A key early customer, Humain, is planning a deployment of around 200 megawatts of Qualcomm‑based AI accelerators starting in 2026. [29]
- To strengthen its data‑center portfolio, Qualcomm has agreed to acquire Alphawave Semi for about $2.4 billion in cash, bringing high‑speed wired connectivity IP that complements Qualcomm’s AI processors and helps it build scalable accelerator networks. [30]
Qualcomm now guides that AI data‑center products could begin to materially contribute to revenue from fiscal 2027, pulling forward a multi‑billion‑dollar opportunity that management had previously placed closer to 2028. [31]
Importantly, multiple independent analysts see this as a direct challenge to Nvidia’s near‑monopoly in AI inference, with Qualcomm promising lower‑power and lower‑cost alternatives for large‑scale workloads. [32]
5.4 Automotive and IoT: quiet compounding
Outside AI buzz, Qualcomm’s Automotive and IoT segments are steadily compounding:
- Automotive revenue grew around 36% in FY25, topping $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time, and includes advanced Snapdragon Ride Pilot ADAS/automated driving solutions co‑developed with BMW. [33]
- IoT revenue grew about 22% in FY25, spanning industrial sensors, networking (Wi‑Fi 7, 5G fixed wireless) and emerging AI smart glasses, many linked to partnerships with companies like Meta. [34]
Qualcomm has also acquired Arduino and introduced the Arduino UNO Q board, aiming to make its Dragonwing edge‑AI processors more accessible to developers—and to anchor a broader ecosystem of embedded AI devices. [35]
5.5 Licensing clarity: complete victory over Arm
One under‑appreciated catalyst in 2025 was legal rather than technological:
- On September 30 / October 1, 2025, a U.S. District Court issued a final judgment in Qualcomm’s favor in its high‑profile licensing dispute with Arm. [36]
- The court confirmed Qualcomm’s architecture license and right to use Oryon cores (via the Nuvia acquisition) in future Snapdragon processors, rejecting Arm’s remaining claims.
This decision removes a significant legal overhang and reinforces Qualcomm’s ability to design custom CPU cores for everything from phones to AI PCs and data‑center chips.
6. Wall Street forecasts: price targets, EPS outlook and valuation
6.1 Consensus ratings and price targets
Different platforms show slightly different numbers, but they all point in the same direction: moderate upside and a broadly bullish analyst stance.
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy based on 24 analyst ratings (1 sell, 9 hold, 14 buy/strong buy).
- Average 12‑month price target:$190.38, with a range from $150 to $225—about 9% upside from current levels. [37]
- StockAnalysis:
- Average target:$186.94, implying roughly 7% upside.
- Consensus rating: Buy from 18 analysts. [38]
- Investing.com and other aggregators cluster around $191–192 as an average target, again with highs near $225. [39]
The Insider Monkey bull thesis goes further, placing fair value in the $195–$220 range based on discounted cash flow and relative multiples, with some referenced sell‑side targets as high as the low‑$200s (e.g., Susquehanna at $210, others up to $225). [40]
In other words: Wall Street generally sees mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from today’s price, with outlier bullish scenarios suggesting more.
6.2 Earnings forecasts and estimate revisions
Beyond price targets, the key story today is estimate momentum:
- As noted earlier, Zacks reports that FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates have been raised by 2–3%, to around $12.14 and $12.65 respectively. [41]
- AI‑driven outlets such as AInvest have previously modeled around 6% annual revenue growth through 2027, with stable operating margins near the mid‑30% range, while flagging risks from smartphone maturity and the speed of AI adoption. [42]
Given Qualcomm just delivered FY25 non‑GAAP EPS of about $12.03, those forecasts imply continued growth, but at a more moderate pace, as the company invests heavily in new markets like AI PCs and data‑center inference.
6.3 Balance sheet and quality metrics
On fundamental quality, Qualcomm scores well:
- Gross margin: ~55%
- Operating margin: ~28%
- Net margin: ~12.5%
- Free‑cash‑flow margin: close to 29%
- Altman Z‑Score: around 6.3, which suggests a very low risk of financial distress. [43]
Debt is present but manageable, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.7, and liquidity metrics (current and quick ratios) comfortably above 2x. [44]
7. Technical picture and sentiment
From a chart and sentiment standpoint, several recent analyses converge on a similar message:
- QCOM is trading in a rising channel, sitting near its 50‑day moving average and above its 200‑day average.
- The stock has rebounded from roughly $160, with technical studies like RSI and MACD turning constructive. [45]
- Recent MarketWatch coverage notes that Qualcomm remains roughly 17% below its 52‑week high around $205.95, which gives the bulls some room—but also underscores that the October air‑pocket is still in investors’ memory. [46]
Year‑to‑date total return in the mid‑teens means QCOM has done well, but nowhere near the triple‑digit gains of some AI peers, which reinforces the “overlooked AI play” narrative you see today in Motley Fool coverage. [47]
8. Key risks investors are watching
Even the most bullish articles out today acknowledge that Qualcomm is not risk‑free:
- Smartphone dependence
- Despite diversification, handsets remain the largest part of QCT revenue, and global smartphone demand is mature and cyclical. A weaker upgrade cycle—especially in China—can still pressure results. [48]
- Customer concentration and Apple risk
- Qualcomm has been working to reduce its reliance on Apple modem sales, but any acceleration in Apple’s shift to in‑house 5G or AI silicon remains a medium‑term overhang mentioned in several fundamental analyses. [49]
- Execution risk in AI data centers
- Competing with entrenched players like Nvidia, AMD and Marvell in AI infrastructure will require flawless execution, strong software support and aggressive pricing. The payoff—multi‑billion‑dollar revenue from 2027 onward—is promising but not guaranteed. [50]
- Macro and cyclical risk in Automotive/IoT
- Automotive and industrial IoT are both sensitive to economic slowdowns, which could delay deployments even if long‑term design wins are intact. [51]
- Regulation and legal overhangs
- While the Arm litigation is resolved in Qualcomm’s favor, antitrust scrutiny and shifting telecom/standards rules are persistent background risks for any company with a large licensing business. [52]
Understanding these risks helps put today’s bullish commentary into context: Qualcomm may offer a more balanced risk/reward profile than some AI high‑flyers, but it is still exposed to cyclical and competitive pressures.
9. Bottom line: how does Qualcomm stock look now?
As of December 4, 2025, the Qualcomm story looks something like this:
- Fundamentals: Record FY25 revenue, robust non‑GAAP EPS growth and strong free cash flow, with expanding Automotive and IoT franchises and a clear roadmap into AI PCs and data centers. [53]
- Valuation: Mid‑teens forward P/E, a 2% dividend yield and a near‑7% FCF yield—a blend that appeals to both growth and income investors. [54]
- Street view: Consensus “Buy/Moderate Buy” rating, with average price targets in the high‑$180s to low‑$190s, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. [55]
- Narrative: Increasingly framed as an “overlooked AI stock” and an edge‑to‑cloud AI platform company, not just a smartphone chip supplier. [56]
- Risks: Smartphone cyclicality, competitive intensity in AI hardware, and macro‑sensitive auto/IoT demand.
For long‑term investors, Qualcomm now sits at the intersection of AI, connectivity, automotive and edge computing, with a still‑reasonable valuation and rising earnings estimates. For shorter‑term traders, the key levels to watch are support near $160 and resistance approaching the $200–$205 zone, alongside how the stock reacts to incoming AI PC launches and any further analyst estimate revisions. [57]
As always, this overview is informational only and not personalized investment advice. Before making any decision on QCOM, consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation and portfolio diversification.
References
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