Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Today: AI Push, Dividend Deadline and 2026 Forecast – December 2, 2025

Qualcomm’s transformation from smartphone modem giant to AI and edge‑computing platform is accelerating – and the stock is trading right in the middle of that narrative.

As of Tuesday, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) is changing hands around $169–170 per share, giving the company a market value of roughly $180–181 billion. Over the last 12 months, the stock has traded between $120.80 and $205.95, with a trailing P/E near 34x, a forward P/E around 14x, and a dividend yield of about 2.1%. ^[1]

With a fresh earnings print, an upcoming ex‑dividend date, new AI chips, and a major UK class action in the background, here’s a detailed look at where Qualcomm stands on 2 December 2025 – and what current news and forecasts suggest for 2026.

1. Where Qualcomm Stock Stands Right Now

• Share price: ~$169–170
• Market cap: ~$181 billion
• 52‑week range: $120.80 – $205.95
• Valuation: ~33.9x trailing EPS, ~14x forward EPS
• Dividend yield: ~2.1% on an annual payout of $3.56 per share
• Analyst consensus rating: “Buy” / “Moderate Buy” across most major platforms ^[2]

StockAnalysis and other data providers show Qualcomm generating $44.3 billion in trailing‑12‑month revenue and about $5.5 billion in net income, for EPS of $5.01. ^[3]

Despite all the AI hype in semiconductors, Qualcomm’s share performance has been relatively muted versus peers: a recent Zacks note highlighted that QCOM is up only about 3–4% over the past year, compared with roughly 77% growth for its broader semiconductor peer group. ^[4]

That gap – plus a lower forward P/E than many AI chip rivals – is central to today’s bull case.

2. Earnings Check: Record QCT, Auto/IoT Momentum and Solid Guidance

Q4 FY2025 at a glance

For its fiscal Q4 2025 (reported 5 November), Qualcomm delivered: ^[5]

• Revenue: $11.27 billion, up 10% year‑on‑year, beating Wall Street estimates.
• Adjusted EPS: $3.00, up 12% YoY, also ahead of consensus.
• Segment performance:
  • QCT (chips): $9.8 billion (+13% YoY)
    • Handsets: $7.0 billion (+14% YoY)
    • IoT: $1.8 billion (+7% YoY)
    • Automotive: $1.1 billion (+17% YoY)
  • QTL (licensing): $1.4 billion (‑7% YoY)

Futurum Research characterized the quarter as “record QCT revenues” and pointed out that Qualcomm’s chip mix is tilting toward automotive, IoT and AI PCs, not just smartphones. ^[6]

Management also stressed that total QCT non‑Apple revenue grew 18% for fiscal 2025, and combined automotive and IoT revenue grew 27%, underscoring progress in diversification away from Apple and classic handset cycles. ^[7]

Guidance into FY2026

For Q1 FY2026, Qualcomm guided to: ^[8]

• Revenue: $11.8–$12.6 billion (above consensus)
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $3.30–$3.50 (also ahead of consensus)
• QCT revenue guidance of $10.3–$10.9 billion
• QTL revenue guidance of $1.4–$1.6 billion

Reuters summarised the setup as “solid quarter” and better‑than‑expected outlook, but noted that shares initially dipped on worries about a smaller share of Samsung’s next‑gen Galaxy S26 modem business. ^[9]

Taken together, Q4 and guidance show a business growing high single‑ to low double‑digits, with a margin structure strong enough to support dividends and buybacks while funding a big AI push.

3. AI PCs, Phones and Data Centers: The New Qualcomm Story

AI PCs: Snapdragon X and the X2 Elite family

Qualcomm has spent the last two years repositioning itself as a key supplier to AI PCs, not just smartphones.

In early 2025, the company launched a Snapdragon X chip for mid‑range AI desktops and laptops, featuring an 8‑core Oryon CPU and an NPU capable of around 45 TOPS, designed to power Microsoft’s Copilot+ PCs at roughly $600 price points. ^[10]

More recently, Qualcomm unveiled Snapdragon X2 Elite and X2 Elite Extreme laptop chips. These Arm‑based processors are pitched as both faster and more power‑efficient than traditional x86 alternatives, and management now expects roughly 150 AI PC designs in market by 2026. ^[11]

That matters because:

• Windows 10 is approaching end‑of‑life, nudging corporate and consumer upgrade cycles. ^[12]
• AI assistants and local inference workloads (Copilot, productivity AI, media tools) favor chips with strong NPUs – Qualcomm’s current sweet spot. ^[13]

Handsets: Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and Gen 5

On the phone side, Qualcomm is doubling down on on‑device AI:

• The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 has been touted as the “world’s fastest mobile SoC” from a GPU perspective, aimed at flagship Android phones. ^[14]
• The Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 extends AI features into upper mid‑range devices, helping Qualcomm monetize AI beyond just the top tier.
• TS2 reports that OnePlus 15R, launching globally on 17 December 2025, will be the first commercial handset with Snapdragon 8 Gen 5, followed by Vivo, Motorola and iQOO. TS2 Tech

The strategy: keep Qualcomm at the center of Android’s move to AI‑native phones, capturing more content per device even if unit volumes grow slowly.

AI data centers: AI200, AI250 and HUMAIN

Qualcomm is also stepping into data‑center AI, an arena dominated by Nvidia and AMD:

• The company announced AI200 and AI250 accelerators focused on energy‑efficient inference.
• Saudi‑backed AI firm HUMAIN has signed on as a customer, and CEO Cristiano Amon told Reuters that Qualcomm is also in talks with at least one large hyperscaler for chip supply. ^[15]

Futurum notes that management plans a 1H 2026 update on data‑center inference products and rack‑level systems, suggesting AI servers are moving from slideware toward early deployments. ^[16]

Investors should see this as a long‑dated call option: the near‑term revenue impact is small, but success would give Qualcomm a new high‑margin growth engine beyond handsets and automotive.

4. Big Strategic Deals: Alphawave and Arduino

Alphawave: building a data‑center connectivity stack

Qualcomm’s largest current M&A deal is its planned $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave IP Group (Alphawave Semi), a UK‑listed specialist in high‑speed SerDes and custom data‑center silicon. TS2 Tech

Key points from recent coverage:

• Regulators in the US, Canada, Germany, South Korea and other regions have largely cleared the deal, and South Korea’s recent approval was described as the “final major hurdle.” TS2 Tech
• Qualcomm has extended a $20 million unsecured bridge loan to Alphawave at Term SOFR + 2.75%, helping the target meet covenants while the takeover closes – a sign of both commitment and elevated integration risk. TS2 Tech
• Strategically, Alphawave brings:
  • High‑speed interconnect IP critical for dense AI and networking chips
  • Experience in chiplets and custom ASICs for cloud and communications customers TS2 Tech

If integration goes well, Qualcomm gets a much richer toolbox for AI data‑center platforms. If it stumbles, investors may question whether management overreached at the top of an AI capex cycle.

Arduino: 33 million developers at the edge

In October, Qualcomm also announced its intent to acquire Arduino, the iconic open‑source electronics platform, for an undisclosed sum. TS2 Tech+1

Highlights:

• Arduino brings a community of over 33 million active users spanning education, prototyping, robotics and IoT. TS2 Tech
• The first joint product, Arduino UNO Q, pairs a Qualcomm Dragonwing processor with a classic microcontroller in a “dual‑brain” design aimed at lightweight edge AI workloads. TS2 Tech+1
• A new Arduino App Lab environment aims to make it easier to build Linux, Python and real‑time microcontroller applications with integrated AI workflows. TS2 Tech

Analysts see this as Qualcomm’s bid to own the developer mindshare that often seeds future commercial IoT designs – crucial if it wants to dominate edge AI, not just smartphones.

5. Segment Deep Dive: Automotive, IoT/XR and Licensing

Automotive: Snapdragon Digital Chassis scales up

Automotive is now a meaningful growth engine:

• Q4 automotive revenue hit about $1.05–1.1 billion, up roughly 17% year over year, setting a new quarterly record. ^[17]
• Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Digital Chassis powers connectivity, infotainment, ADAS and telematics across multiple OEMs.
• BMW’s iX3 is among the first to deploy Snapdragon Ride Pilot (L2+ automated driving), with validation across dozens of countries. ^[18]

Management continues to target multi‑billion‑dollar annual automotive revenue by FY2029, underpinned by long‑dated design wins and software‑defined vehicle roadmaps. ^[19]

IoT and XR: industrial, AR/VR and smart glasses

On the IoT and XR side:

• Q4 IoT revenue reached $1.8 billion, +7% YoY, and about $6.6 billion for FY2025 (+22% YoY). ^[20]
• Qualcomm is seeing strong traction for Snapdragon AR1 in AI‑powered smart glasses, including Meta’s latest Ray‑Ban smart glasses and new XR devices from Samsung and others. ^[21]
• The company counts 30 XR designs in production or development, reinforcing its role in mixed‑reality platforms. ^[22]

IoT/XR may not command Nvidia‑like headlines, but they provide sticky, recurring, design‑win‑driven revenue that rounds out the AI story.

QTL licensing: steady cash engine, modest growth

Qualcomm’s licensing arm (QTL) remains a powerful cash generator:

• Q4 QTL revenue: $1.4 billion, down 7% YoY but still with high margins. ^[23]
• Licensing covers 3G/4G/5G and other wireless IP used across the global handset ecosystem.

This segment funds a significant portion of Qualcomm’s R&D and shareholder returns, but it also sits at the center of regulatory and legal scrutiny (more on that below).

6. Dividends, Buybacks and Balance Sheet

Ex‑dividend countdown

Qualcomm is about to go ex‑dividend:

• Next dividend: $0.89 per share
• Ex‑dividend date:4 December 2025
• Payment date:18 December 2025
• Annualized payout: $3.56 per share (yield ~2.1% at ~$169) ^[24]

Simply Wall St estimates Qualcomm is paying out roughly 69% of earnings but only about 30% of free cash flow in dividends – a level they view as generally sustainable. Over the past 10 years, the company has grown its dividend at about 7–8% annually, while maintaining a continuous quarterly payout. ^[25]

Buybacks and capital returns

According to Qualcomm’s filings and commentary: ^[26]

• The company returned $12.6 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 via dividends and repurchases.
• It repurchased tens of millions of shares over the year while keeping leverage moderate (debt‑to‑equity around 0.54, current ratio about 3.2).

Taken together, dividend and buyback policies make Qualcomm a hybrid income and growth name, not just a pure AI speculation.

7. Institutional Flows and Analyst Sentiment

Big money: adds and trims on December 2

Two fresh 13F headlines hit on 2 December 2025: ^[27]

• Westerkirk Capital Inc. initiated a new QCOM stake of 28,500 shares, valued around $4.54 million.
• Fisher Asset Management LLC trimmed its holdings by 12.4% in Q2 but still owns over 1.27 million shares, worth about $203 million.

MarketBeat data indicates that approximately 74% of Qualcomm’s float is held by institutional investors and hedge funds, reflecting its status as a core large‑cap tech holding. ^[28]

Wall Street price targets: clustered in the $185–200 band

Across major platforms, analyst targets look like this:

• MarketBeat:
  • Average 12‑month target: $190.38
  • Range: $150 – $225 (24 analysts; “Moderate Buy”) ^[29]
• StockAnalysis:
  • Average target: $186.94 (+~10% upside) ^[30]
• TipRanks:
  • Average target: $197.86
  • Range: $165 – $225
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (11 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell) ^[31]
• Yahoo Finance / Zacks:
  • Average target around $191–192
  • Range: $157–225 ^[32]

In other words, most human analysts see low double‑digit upside from current levels over the next 12 months, with a few bulls targeting $210–215 on successful AI execution. ^[33]

By contrast, algorithmic site CoinCodex is more cautious: its model projects QCOM around $176 by year‑end 2025 but just $120 in a year’s time and sub‑$100 by 2030, and therefore labels the stock “not a good buy” on a purely quantitative basis. ^[34]

8. Technical and Short‑Term Forecasts

Short‑term technical views on QCOM as of 2 December include:

• Economies.com notes that Qualcomm’s price recently slipped back from resistance, with the 50‑day moving average acting as a ceiling and support near $165.40. Their base case calls for a move toward $175.40 as long as that support holds. ^[35]
• StockInvest.us highlights that QCOM fell slightly to $168.04 on 1 December, with rising volume on a down day and a ‑3.4% decline over the past 2 weeks – a combination they interpret as raising near‑term risk even though the longer trend remains mixed. ^[36]

Taken together, the technical picture suggests range‑bound trading in the high $160s to mid‑$170s, with the market waiting for clearer signals on smartphone demand and AI revenue ramp‑up.

9. Legal and Regulatory Overhangs: UK Class Action in Focus

Legal risk remains part of the Qualcomm story.

In October, a £480 million UK class action over alleged abuse of dominance in smartphone chip licensing formally went to trial at the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal. The case, led by consumer group Which?, alleges Qualcomm’s royalty model inflated Apple and Samsung handset prices for an estimated 29 million UK consumers between 2015 and 2024. ^[37]

Interestingly, CoinCentral reports that Qualcomm’s stock rose about 0.6% in pre‑market trading as the trial opened, suggesting investors see the suit as manageable given Qualcomm’s track record of navigating antitrust battles in the EU and South Korea. ^[38]

Still, a ruling against Qualcomm could set an important precedent, potentially emboldening regulators elsewhere – a medium‑term risk worth monitoring.

10. Key Risks: Smartphones, Samsung/Apple, and AI Competition

Current research flags several main risk themes: CoinCodex+3TS2 Tech+3Reuters+3

1. Smartphone dependence & customer concentration
   • Despite diversification, handsets remain Qualcomm’s largest revenue driver.
   • Samsung modem share is expected to drop from 100% in the Galaxy S25 line to about 75% in the S26 cycle, and Apple continues moving some models to in‑house modems. ^[39]
   • Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi each still contribute more than 10% of Qualcomm’s sales.
2. AI data‑center competition
   • AI200/AI250 must win real deployments in a market dominated by Nvidia, with AMD and Intel also ramping AI offerings.
   • Nvidia’s software ecosystem and customer lock‑in create a high bar for new entrants, even those with strong power‑efficiency claims.
3. M&A integration and balance‑sheet risk
   • The Alphawave deal and associated bridge loan highlight both strategic ambition and exposure to a weaker data‑center macro environment. TS2 Tech
4. Regulatory and legal exposure
   • Ongoing and potential future antitrust actions – like the UK case – could lead to fines, behavioral remedies or additional litigation worldwide. ^[40]
5. Macro headwinds in smartphones
   • IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to dip slightly in 2026 as higher memory prices push up average selling prices, a trend that could pressure volumes even as premium tiers grow. ^[41]

11. Is Qualcomm the Next AI Chip Growth Stock – or a Value Trap?

A widely discussed 24/7 Wall St. piece recently asked whether Qualcomm is the new AI chip growth stock to buy, pointing to its lower valuation relative to Nvidia and some mega‑cap peers. ^[42]

Several data points support the “under‑appreciated AI compounder” thesis:

• Forward P/E around 14x, well below many AI‑exposed peers. ^[43]
• Growing contributions from automotive, IoT and AI PCs, with record QCT revenue and robust guidance. ^[44]
• A 2%+ dividend yield, 10‑year dividend growth track record, and consistent buybacks. ^[45]

On the other side of the ledger:

• Long‑term total‑return studies (highlighted by TS2 quoting Kiplinger) show that over the past two decades, Qualcomm has slightly lagged the S&P 500, despite being central to the mobile revolution – a function of dot‑com‑era overvaluation, litigation cycles and lumpy handset demand. TS2 Tech
• Quant models like CoinCodex foresee negative 1‑year and long‑term returns, reflecting concerns about cyclicality and competition. ^[46]

The result is a stock where human analysts largely lean “buy”, expecting high‑teens upside on AI and diversification, while systematic models remain cautious, seeing a risk that the AI narrative is already priced in.

12. What to Watch Next

For investors tracking Qualcomm after 2 December 2025, the key signposts are:

1. Dividend date and income flows
   • Ex‑dividend on 4 December, payable 18 December – short‑term traders often reposition around these dates. ^[47]
2. AI PC adoption metrics
   • How many Snapdragon X/X2‑powered Copilot+ laptops actually ship in 1H 2026, and whether OEMs broaden beyond early design wins. ^[48]
3. Data‑center AI updates
   • Customer announcements and revenue disclosure for AI200/AI250 and the HUMAIN deployment; clarity from the promised 2026 update will be crucial. ^[49]
4. Closing and integrating Alphawave and Arduino
   • Watch for final regulatory steps, closing timelines, and any commentary on cross‑selling or product roadmaps.
5. Samsung and Apple modem share
   • Concrete numbers for Galaxy S26 and future iPhone generations will shape how quickly Qualcomm has to backfill modem revenue with other growth drivers. ^[50]
6. UK class action developments
   • Interim rulings and, eventually, the tribunal’s decision on liability and damages.

Final note

This article is informational and educational, not personalized investment advice. Qualcomm sits at the crossroads of smartphones, AI PCs, automotive and data‑center AI, with a solid balance sheet, shareholder returns and a valuation below many AI peers – but it also faces real competitive, legal and cycle risks. Anyone considering QCOM should weigh these factors against their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio strategy.

References

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