Rare metals stocks are ending 2025 with a familiar mix of geopolitics, supply-chain data, and fast-moving technology shifts—only now, the market is increasingly treating “rare metals” as a policy asset class, not just a commodity trade.
On December 20, 2025, the clearest signal came from the rare earths corner of the market: China’s rare-earth magnet exports climbed to their second-highest level on record in November, suggesting a partial normalization of shipments after months of licensing friction. At the same time, new “general” export licences and fresh Western processing initiatives are reshaping the long-term investment case for rare earth stocks and strategic metals alike. [1]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis shaping rare metals and critical minerals stocks as of 20.12.2025—with a focus on what matters next for investors watching rare earths, gallium/germanium, antimony, and battery metals.
Why rare metals stocks matter more than ever in 2026
“Rare metals” is a broad label, but markets increasingly use it as shorthand for materials that are both industrially essential and geopolitically exposed—including:
- Rare earth elements (REEs) and rare-earth magnets (EV motors, wind turbines, defense electronics)
- Gallium and germanium (semiconductors, RF chips, fiber optics, defense systems)
- Antimony (ammunition components, flame retardants, specialty alloys, some battery uses)
- Battery and electrification metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and the “enablers” copper and aluminum
The throughline into 2026 is straightforward: industrial demand is rising, but supply security is fragmenting by bloc—and equities are often the fastest way the market reprices that risk.
Today’s headline for rare earth stocks: China’s magnet exports surge—again
China’s rare-earth magnet exports hit a near-record in November
Customs data released Saturday showed China’s exports of rare-earth magnets rose to 6,150 metric tons in November, up 12% from October and the highest since January’s record 6,357 tons. [2]
That matters for rare metals stocks because rare-earth magnets are one of the most sensitive choke points in the EV and defense supply chain. A licensing slowdown can idle factories; a rebound can relieve near-term pressure on downstream manufacturers—but it can also remind markets how concentrated the supply remains.
Shipments to the U.S. dipped, Japan jumped
The same update pointed to divergent trade flows:
- Exports to the U.S. totaled 582 metric tons in November, down 11% month-over-month, but described as within the average range since July. [3]
- Exports to Japan rose 35% to 305 metric tons, the highest this year, according to the report. [4]
The investment takeaway: rare earth-related equities can react not only to “total exports,” but to who receives material—because end-use sensitivity (autos vs. aerospace vs. defense) influences licensing risk premiums.
Export controls aren’t “gone”—they’re evolving into managed flow
China confirms streamlined “general licences” for rare earth exports
Beijing has publicly acknowledged it is granting a new category of “general licences” intended to speed up rare earth exports. China’s Commerce Ministry said some applications had already been received and approved. [5]
Earlier Reuters reporting described these general licences as year-long permits for specific customers, designed to supplement—rather than replace—the existing dual-use licensing regime. [6]
The key nuance for rare metals investors
This is the critical point for anyone covering rare metals stocks:
- Streamlining can reduce supply shocks (bearish for panic premiums)
- But it can also institutionalize control (bullish for long-term strategic valuation—especially for non-China supply chain plays)
In other words, 2026 may be less about sudden stoppages and more about predictable—but politicized—gatekeeping.
The bottleneck that still defines rare earth stocks: heavy rare earths
Even if magnet exports stabilize, the hardest part of “de-risking China” remains the heavy rare earths—especially dysprosium and terbium, which are crucial for high-performance magnets used in demanding environments (including defense and some EV applications).
A Reuters deep-dive in November highlighted that Western efforts to build magnet capacity are colliding with heavy rare earth scarcity. It cited estimates that the West would still rely on China for 91% of its heavy rare earth needs by 2030 (down only slightly from 99% in 2024). [7]
For rare metals stocks, this creates a two-tier market:
- Light-REE projects can help, but may not solve the “magnet-grade” dependency
- Heavy-REE exposure (or credible access to heavy feedstock) can command outsized strategic premiums—if the project is financeable and permittable
Gallium and germanium stocks: the quiet semiconductor metals are getting louder
New supply agreement: ERG signs long-term gallium deal with Mitsubishi
On December 20, mining group Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) said it signed a long-term agreement to supply gallium to Mitsubishi Corporation RtM Japan (a Mitsubishi subsidiary). [8]
The deal is notable because gallium has been at the center of export-control headlines for years—and buyers are actively seeking non-China-aligned supply.
A separate Western push: the Alcoa gallium project backed by the U.S. and Australia
In October, Reuters reported the U.S. and Australia pledged to invest at least $1 billion each in critical minerals initiatives (including a price-floor concept), and specifically noted support to advance Alcoa’s plan to build a gallium plant alongside its alumina refinery in Western Australia—potentially supplying up to 10% of global gallium. [9]
For investors, the pattern is clear: gallium exposure is often indirect (as a byproduct of bauxite/alumina processing), so markets may reward integrated players and processing infrastructure as much as “pure” miners.
China temporarily suspends the U.S. export ban—but controls remain
China announced in November that it suspended its ban on approving exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States until November 27, 2026—but emphasized those metals remain subject to broader export controls requiring licences. [10]
That duality—relaxation without relinquishing leverage—is exactly the kind of structure that can keep strategic metal equities volatile even when “trade tensions cool.”
Antimony stocks: enforcement tightens while the U.S. builds processing capacity
Antimony has become a standout “strategic metal” because it’s both militarily relevant and tightly supplied—and recent headlines show both sides of that equation.
China sentences 27 people in antimony smuggling case
A Chinese court imposed jail sentences and fines on 27 people for shipping antimony ingots out of China without export licences, with the main defendant receiving 12 years in prison and a 1 million yuan fine. [11]
For markets, enforcement headlines can matter almost as much as policy changes: they signal whether export controls are merely “on paper” or actively policed.
The U.S. military’s “mini refinery” model starts with antimony
Reuters reported on December 9 that the U.S. Army, working with Idaho National Laboratory and Perpetua Resources, is developing small-scale refineries for critical minerals—starting with antimony trisulfide, with annual output of roughly 7 to 10 metric tons. [12]
That may sound small—but it underscores a strategic shift: resilience over scale for defense-linked materials.
Korea Zinc’s $7.4 billion U.S. smelter plan targets antimony, germanium and gallium
Korea Zinc plans a $7.4 billion U.S. smelter project expected to produce strategic minerals including antimony, germanium, and gallium, with commercial operations expected to roll out gradually from 2027 to 2029, according to Reuters. [13]
The Financial Times framed the same project as part of Washington’s effort to counter China by backing processing capacity, including a joint venture structure involving U.S. support. [14]
Lithium and battery metals stocks: the EV boom continues, but the metals trade is changing
EV demand is rising—yet “battery metals” have struggled
A Reuters analysis this week captured a defining tension for lithium, nickel, and cobalt equities: global EV sales rose 21% year-over-year to 18.5 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, but battery metals have endured another tough year amid oversupply and fast-evolving chemistries. [15]
Lithium jumps in China on licence revocation headlines
Lithium markets got a jolt after authorities in Yichun (a key Chinese lithium region) announced a plan to revoke 27 expired mining licences. Reuters reported the most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged to an intraday high of 109,860 yuan per ton before settling lower. [16]
For lithium stocks, the signal isn’t just “China demand”—it’s the sensitivity of pricing to regulatory cleanups, especially when investors are watching for signs the multi-year oversupply may finally tighten.
But the tech risk is real: sodium-ion’s challenge to lithium is getting sharper
A Reuters metals column republished by MINING.COM highlighted CATL’s sodium-ion work—arguing sodium-ion could potentially replace a meaningful share of LFP in the future—while emphasizing lithium still benefits from grid storage demand. [17]
It also cited:
- 60,900 tons of lithium deployed onto roads globally in September, up 25% year-on-year (Adamas Intelligence estimate) [18]
- Global battery energy storage system installations up 38% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) [19]
The market implication: lithium’s medium-term fundamentals can improve even as long-term investors reassess how durable lithium’s share is across all battery categories.
A notable forecast: Bernstein raises its 2026 lithium price view
Bernstein (as reported by Investing.com) raised its 2026 lithium carbonate price forecast to $17,000/ton, citing tightening fundamentals and stronger demand growth into 2026. [20]
As always, investors should treat broker forecasts as scenarios—not certainty—but the direction of revisions often influences sentiment across lithium miners and developers.
2026 outlook for rare metals stocks: what the big-picture forecasts are saying
Fitch: mining outlook neutral; nickel and lithium remain oversupplied
Fitch expects resilient demand across key metals and a “neutral” outlook for the global mining sector in 2026, with copper and aluminum markets “rather narrowly balanced.” Fitch also said nickel and lithium will remain oversupplied in 2026. [21]
For rare metals stocks, that’s a reminder that:
- some equities are still hostage to cycle economics (especially where supply surged),
- while others trade more on strategic scarcity and policy.
Goldman: copper consolidates in 2026, but remains its “favorite” industrial metal
Goldman Sachs forecast copper would consolidate in 2026 and average $11,400 per metric ton, while reiterating it remains the bank’s favored industrial metal given electrification-driven demand and constrained mine supply. [22]
This matters to the rare metals theme because copper and aluminum often end up as the “picks and shovels” winners of electrification—even when cathode chemistries shift underneath battery metals.
How to cover “rare metals stocks” like a pro: 5 factors that now drive returns
If 2025 taught investors anything, it’s that rare metals equities can disconnect from spot prices. These are the five drivers that increasingly dominate performance:
- Licensing and export-control regimes (not just “bans,” but how approvals are issued and enforced) [23]
- Processing capacity (rare metals are often abundant in ore but scarce in usable, refined form) [24]
- Byproduct economics (gallium/germanium often ride on alumina, zinc, copper, or other base-metal flows) [25]
- Battery chemistry substitution (LFP, sodium-ion, and cobalt-thrifting reshape demand) [26]
- Policy capital and strategic partnerships (government stakes, offtake agreements, defense-linked procurement) [27]
What to watch next week
Even on a “quiet” Saturday, the rare metals tape is setting up several storylines to watch into year-end and early 2026:
- Whether November’s rebound in magnet exports continues—and whether flows shift toward autos vs. sensitive end markets [28]
- How widely China’s general licences expand beyond early recipients, and whether Europe confirms meaningful approvals [29]
- New non-China processing commitments (U.S.-backed, ally-backed, or defense-linked) and whether timelines harden beyond press-release ambition [30]
- Lithium’s tightening narrative vs. oversupply reality, especially as 2026 contract pricing and inventory signals become more visible [31]
References
1. www.brecorder.com, 2. www.brecorder.com, 3. www.brecorder.com, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.mining.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.ft.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.mining.com, 18. www.mining.com, 19. www.mining.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.ft.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.brecorder.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
