New York, Jan 18, 2026, 13:56 EST — Market closed
- U.S. real estate stocks climbed on Friday, following a late-week shift favoring defensive sectors.
- Treasury yields remained high, continuing to weigh on rate-sensitive REIT valuations.
- Attention turns to Tuesday’s reopening, crucial REIT earnings reports, and the Fed’s meeting set for late January.
U.S. real estate stocks finished Friday on a strong note, with the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund rising roughly 1.2% to close at $42.21.
This shift is significant since listed property firms usually respond to changes in interest-rate forecasts. As bond yields climb, investors usually push for bigger returns from dividend-focused real estate investment trusts, or REITs — these firms own income-generating properties and generally distribute most of their cash flow.
Real estate ranked as one of the better-performing sectors in the S&P 500 this week, with investors keeping positions cautious ahead of the holiday break. “Historically the middle part of January tends to be pretty choppy,” said Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, highlighted earnings season as a new catalyst for rotation. 1
The S&P 500 Real Estate (Sector) index climbed 1.20% on Friday, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data. It has gained 4.50% both month-to-date and year-to-date as of Jan. 16. 2
Other major real estate ETFs also climbed on Friday. Vanguard’s VNQ finished at $92.62, while iShares’ IYR closed at $98.31.
The focus remained squarely on rates. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed Jan. 16 at 4.24%, hovering near this month’s upper bound, based on Treasury data. 3
That level doesn’t settle the question of property cash flows on its own, but it shifts the calculations. If yields continue to creep higher, steady rent increases may no longer be enough to counterbalance a rising discount rate in valuation models—particularly when it comes to office space and long-term cash flows.
The U.S. market will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, moving the next trading session to Tuesday. According to the Federal Reserve’s calendar, some routine data releases will also be postponed due to the holiday. 4
REIT earnings will take on greater significance this week. Prologis is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 21, offering a glimpse into industrial demand and pricing trends in logistics real estate. 5
The downside risk for the sector is clear. If yields rise or credit spreads widen, income-focused investors may pull back, causing real estate stocks to lose ground quickly — all without any shifts in property fundamentals.
The key event arrives later this month: the Fed’s meeting on Jan. 27–28 and the Jan. 28 press conference. These could shift rate expectations and, in turn, influence how investors value REIT dividends. 6
