Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Stock Jumps on Positive FAP Trial Data: Latest News, AI Drug Discovery Outlook and Analyst Forecasts

Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ stock is back in the spotlight on 8 December 2025 after the company reported encouraging mid‑stage trial results for its AI‑discovered drug REC‑4881 in a rare, cancer‑linked condition called familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). The news gives investors something they’ve been waiting on for years: early clinical proof that Recursion’s AI‑driven platform might actually work in real patients. ^[1]

Shares of Recursion (ticker: RXRX) traded in the mid‑$4 range on Monday, up low single digits intraday after jumping as much as around 6% in pre‑market trading on the back of the data, according to Reuters and Benzinga. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into what Recursion announced today, how the market is reacting, what it means for the broader AI drug discovery story, and how Wall Street currently values RXRX stock.

What Recursion Announced Today: TUPELO Trial of REC‑4881 in FAP

On 8 December 2025, Recursion released Phase 1b/2 data from the ongoing TUPELO trial of REC‑4881, an oral allosteric MEK1/2 inhibitor for FAP. ^[3]

Key points from the company’s press release and associated coverage:

Indication: Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), a hereditary colorectal cancer syndrome caused by mutations in the APC gene. Patients develop hundreds to thousands of gastrointestinal polyps and face a near‑100% lifetime risk of colorectal cancer before age 40 if untreated. There are currently no approved pharmacologic therapies; management is dominated by intense surveillance and major surgeries (such as colectomy). ^[4]
AI‑first discovery: REC‑4881 was identified via the Recursion OS, which screened thousands of compounds and flagged selective MEK1/2 inhibition as a rescue mechanism for APC loss‑of‑function biology. Recursion then in‑licensed REC‑4881 (originally tested in solid tumors) and repurposed it for FAP. ^[5]

Efficacy data (Phase 2 portion)

As of the 25 November 2025 data cutoff in TUPELO’s open‑label Phase 2 cohort (4 mg once daily): ^[6]

Week 13 (on‑treatment, 12 weeks of dosing)
- Median reduction in total polyp burden: 43% in 12 efficacy‑evaluable patients.
- 75% of evaluable patients showed a reduction in polyp burden.
- 40% (4 of 10) achieved at least a 1‑point improvement in Spigelman stage, a clinically meaningful measure of upper GI disease severity.
Week 25 (12 weeks off therapy)
- Patients stopped treatment after Week 13 and were followed for another 12 weeks.
- 82% (9 of 11) maintained reductions in total polyp burden at Week 25.
- Median reduction in total polyp burden at Week 25: 53% versus baseline.
- 73% achieved durable ≥30% reductions in polyp burden.

These results look particularly strong when set against Recursion’s natural‑history dataset, where 87% of analogous untreated FAP patients show annualized increases in polyp burden, not decreases. ^[7]

Safety profile

REC‑4881’s safety looked broadly consistent with other MEK1/2 inhibitors:

Most treatment‑related adverse events (TRAEs) were Grade 1–2.
Grade 3 TRAEs occurred in about 15.8% of safety‑evaluable patients.
No Grade ≥4 treatment‑related adverse events were reported to date. ^[8]

For a small, single‑arm trial, the signal is notable: substantial polyp reductions, plus durability after stopping therapy, in a disease with no approved drugs and high lifetime cancer risk.

“First Clinical Validation” of Recursion’s AI Platform

Recursion isn’t just pitching REC‑4881 as a one‑off win; management is calling TUPELO the first full “validation cycle” of the Recursion OS:

Unbiased phenotypic screen flagged MEK1/2 inhibition as rescuing APC loss‑of‑function biology.
Mechanistic confirmation in cellular and molecular assays.
Clinical translation into a repurposed MEK inhibitor (REC‑4881) in an appropriate patient population.
Human data showing rapid and durable reductions in polyp burden. ^[9]

In comments to Reuters, incoming CEO Najat Khan described the results as early but important “green shoots” of clinical proof for the platform, arguing that Recursion is among the first AI‑native drug discovery shops to show clear efficacy in an area with no prior pharmacotherapy options. ^[10]

From a stock‑thesis perspective, this matters because, until now, Recursion has mostly sold a story: massive datasets, huge compute, glitzy Nvidia collaboration, and lots of partnerships, but no approved drugs and limited human efficacy wins. TUPELO doesn’t solve that overnight, but it marks a tangible step forward.

How the Market Reacted: RXRX Stock on 8 December 2025

The reaction has been positive but not euphoric so far:

Reuters reported RXRX shares up about 6% in pre‑market trading Monday after the TUPELO results hit the tape. ^[11]
Benzinga later noted that shares were trading around $4.81–$4.83, up roughly 2% intraday at 10:49 a.m. ET. ^[12]
StockTitan’s AI summary lists a last close of $4.71, below the 200‑day moving average of $5.33 and about 62% under the 52‑week high—underscoring just how beaten‑down the stock was heading into the readout. ^[13]

In other words, this is not a classic “double‑overnight” biotech spike. Instead, the market seems to be treating TUPELO as:

Evidence that the platform can work, but
Still early‑stage, with a tiny patient sample, single‑arm design, and long road to any commercial product.

Benzinga’s recap also notes that while the trial data is favorable, RXRX has been under downward pressure overall, reflecting broader concerns about cash burn, competition, and the risk profile of AI‑driven biotech. ^[14]

Why FAP and REC‑4881 Matter for the Long‑Term Thesis

FAP isn’t a blockbuster‑scale indication, but it’s a high‑value testbed for a few reasons: ^[15]

High unmet need: A near‑certain risk of colorectal cancer without intervention, with current management dominated by life‑altering surgeries.
Clear biology: The APC mutation–driven pathway provides a focused mechanistic target.
Regulatory tailwinds: REC‑4881 has Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations in the U.S., and Orphan status in the EU, which can translate into expedited development, potential market exclusivity, and pricing power if the drug reaches approval. ^[16]
Population: Recursion estimates >50,000 FAP patients across the U.S. and EU5—small, but meaningful for a specialty rare‑disease therapy. ^[17]

Recursion plans to:

Engage the FDA in 1H 2026 to define a potential pivotal‑registration pathway.
Expand the eligible population from age ≥55 to ≥18 and optimize dosing schedules in future study phases. ^[18]

If TUPELO eventually leads to a registrational program and approval, REC‑4881 would become:

A first‑in‑class pharmacologic therapy for FAP, and
A flagship commercial proof‑point that AI‑based phenotypic screening can produce clinically meaningful drugs.

That’s why today’s seemingly small mid‑stage readout looms large in the RXRX equity narrative.

Recursion’s Broader AI Drug Discovery Play: Supercomputers, M&A and Pipeline Cleanup

Today’s news sits on top of a much bigger story.

Nvidia, BioHive and the “OS” vision

Recursion has spent years branding itself as a “TechBio” company, not a conventional biotech. A few pillars of that branding:

Nvidia investment: In 2023, Nvidia invested $50 million in Recursion and took roughly a 4% stake, with plans to train Recursion’s models on Nvidia’s cloud infrastructure and commercialize them via its BioNeMo platform. ^[19]
BioHive‑2 supercomputer: Recursion says it operates one of biopharma’s most powerful AI supercomputers, built with Nvidia, to crunch a 65‑petabyte multi‑omic dataset and support automated, robot‑driven wet‑lab experiments that feed data back into the Recursion OS. ^[20]
Big‑pharma partnerships: The company has discovery collaborations with heavyweights including Roche/Genentech, Bayer, Merck KGaA and Sanofi, plus substantial non‑dilutive milestone potential over time. ^[21]

Exscientia merger and pipeline streamlining

Recursion also acquired rival AI drug discovery company Exscientia, a deal that closed in late 2024. Several months later, in May 2025, the combined company announced a pretty aggressive pipeline cleanup: ^[22]

Deprioritizing three clinical‑stage programs:
- REC‑2282 (neurofibromatosis type 2)
- REC‑994 (cerebral cavernous malformation)
- REC‑3964 (C. difficile infection)
Pausing REC‑4539 (an oncology program) while revisiting its target product profile.
Focusing instead on six active development programs, with four in oncology and two in rare diseases (including FAP and hypophosphatasia).

The message: Recursion is willing to kill or out‑license weaker programs and concentrate capital where the data and AI‑generated rationale look strongest.

Expanding rare‑disease footprint: HPP program

In mid‑2025, Recursion acquired full rights to REV102, an oral ENPP1 inhibitor from Rallybio aimed at hypophosphatasia (HPP), another rare, serious genetic disease. The goal is to develop the first oral disease‑modifying therapy for HPP, complementing the FAP program in the company’s rare‑disease portfolio. ^[23]

Taken together, TUPELO + Exscientia + HPP + the Nvidia‑powered Recursion OS form the core of Recursion’s pitch: a focused, AI‑augmented pipeline in oncology and rare diseases, backed by big‑tech and big‑pharma partnerships.

Financial Picture: Big Cash Pile, Big Cash Burn

Early‑stage AI biotech is never just about science; it’s also about how long the money lasts.

In its Q3 2025 earnings and business update, Recursion reported: ^[24]

Revenue: $5.2 million, down sharply from $26.1 million in the same quarter of 2024 (largely due to timing of milestones).
R&D expenses: $121.1 million in Q3 alone.
Net loss: $162.3 million for the quarter.
Cash and equivalents:
- $667.1 million as of 30 September 2025, and
- Approximately $785 million as of 9 October 2025 (unaudited).
Runway: Management says current cash should fund operations through the end of 2027 without additional financing, assuming the current burn trajectory.
Partnership milestone: A $30 million milestone from Roche/Genentech for delivering a whole‑genome microglia phenomap, pushing cumulative partner upfronts + milestones above $500 million.

So RXRX has a solid cash buffer and real external validation, but also heavy and rising operating losses as it invests in platform build‑out and clinical trials. Investors need to assume ongoing dilution or non‑dilutive deals if spending stays this high beyond 2027.

Leadership Shift: New CEO in 2026

Alongside Q3 results, Recursion announced a CEO succession plan effective 1 January 2026: ^[25]

Najat Khan, Ph.D. – currently Chief R&D and Commercial Officer and a board member – will become CEO and President while staying on the board.
Chris Gibson, Ph.D. – co‑founder and current CEO – will transition to Chairman of the Board and interim executive advisor.
Current chairman Rob Hershberg will become Vice‑Chairman and Lead Independent Director.

The board frames this as a continuity move to drive the “next phase” of growth for the Recursion OS and its pipeline. Strategically, Khan is also heavily featured in today’s TUPELO communications, reinforcing that she is the public face of Recursion’s AI‑plus‑clinic strategy going forward. ^[26]

Leadership transition introduces some execution risk (investors have grown used to Gibson as the evangelist‑in‑chief), but also aligns the top role with the person most responsible for R&D and commercial strategy.

What Wall Street Thinks: RXRX Stock Forecasts and Ratings

The TUPELO data landed on a market already quite split on RXRX.

Consensus ratings and average price targets

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: Hold from six analysts (1 Sell, 3 Hold, 2 Buy).
- Average 12‑month price target:$7.25.
- At a recent trading price around the low‑to‑mid‑$4 range, that implies roughly 50–60% upside if the average target proves correct. ^[27]
TipRanks (last 3 months):
- Rating: Moderate Buy based on 3 analysts (1 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell).
- Average 12‑month price target:$8.00, with all three analysts clustered at the same target.
- TipRanks calculates this as about 70% upside versus a last price of $4.71. ^[28]

Notably, these targets were set before the full TUPELO data drop, so they may be revised in either direction as analysts digest durability, safety and regulatory feedback.

Qualitative analyst and commentator views

Recent write‑ups and TV segments paint a nuanced picture:

A Motley Fool analysis (“3 Things Investors Need to Know About Recursion Pharmaceuticals”) highlights:
- Recursion’s industry‑leading AI supercomputer built with Nvidia.
- A growing set of big‑pharma partnerships.
- But also no approved products, no Phase 3 programs yet, and a very high‑risk profile given the lack of late‑stage clinical success. ^[29]
Another Motley Fool piece asks whether Recursion could be “the next big AI stock,” but ultimately frames it as a speculative growth story that requires patience and a strong stomach for volatility. ^[30]
Jim Cramer recently lumped Recursion into a “speculative” category on CNBC’s Lightning Round, reflecting the common view that RXRX belongs in the high‑risk bucket even among AI plays. ^[31]

Short interest has also been elevated; prior Benzinga coverage put Recursion on lists of highly shorted names, adding another volatility amplifier whenever new data hits. ^[32]

Put bluntly: Wall Street is intrigued but unconvinced. TUPELO moves the needle, but the street wants more and bigger clinical wins before upgrading Recursion to “core AI holding” status.

How Today’s Data Changes (and Doesn’t Change) the Investment Case

For investors trying to decide what to do with RXRX stock, 8 December 2025 is a meaningful checkpoint rather than a final verdict.

What improves with TUPELO

Clinical proof‑of‑concept for the Recursion OS: TUPELO is the first clear example of an AI‑generated mechanistic hypothesis turning into a drug that shows real, durable patient benefit in a trial. ^[33]
Rare‑disease strategy gains credibility: FAP now joins HPP as a serious, data‑backed rare‑disease pillar where AI may offer differentiated, precision‑biology medicines. ^[34]
Regulatory and competitive positioning: Fast Track and Orphan status, combined with comparatively strong polyp‑reduction data versus other agents tested historically, give REC‑4881 a potentially advantaged path if future trials hold up. ^[35]

What still worries the bears

Tiny sample size & single‑arm design: The Phase 2 dataset involves low double‑digit patient numbers with no randomized control arm. That’s fine for a signal‑finding study, but regulators and payers will eventually want larger, controlled data. ^[36]
No near‑term revenue transformation: Even with an accelerated path, a pivotal FAP study and regulatory review will take years. The Q3 numbers show continued heavy losses in the meantime. ^[37]
Crowded AI‑biotech field: Major pharmas (including some of Recursion’s own partners) are building their own AI capabilities and supercomputers. Recursion’s edge may erode if it can’t convert its head start into a pipeline of late‑stage assets. ^[38]
Execution risk during leadership transition: A new CEO stepping in just as the company enters a pivotal clinical and regulatory phase always raises questions about focus and culture. ^[39]

Net effect

TUPELO tilts the balance modestly toward the bulls:

It doesn’t fix the “no Phase 3, no product” problem.
It does offer a clear, patient‑level validation of the platform in a high‑unmet‑need setting.
It increases the probability—though doesn’t guarantee—that Recursion’s rare‑disease pipeline can deliver a real commercial asset in the coming years.

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors who already bought into the AI‑drug‑discovery narrative, today’s data is an encouraging mile marker. For more conservative investors, Recursion likely remains in the “speculative satellite position, not core holding” bucket until it racks up more late‑stage successes.

Key Takeaways for RXRX Stock on 8 December 2025

Clinical milestone: REC‑4881 cut polyp burden by a median 43% at 12 weeks and 53% at 25 weeks off‑drug in FAP patients, with durable benefit in over 80% of evaluable patients, and a manageable safety profile. ^[40]
Platform validation: Recursion is framing TUPELO as the first full validation cycle of its AI‑driven Recursion OS, from phenotypic insight to human efficacy. ^[41]
Stock reaction: RXRX traded modestly higher in the mid‑$4 range on Monday after an early pre‑market pop, reflecting cautious optimism rather than full‑blown euphoria. ^[42]
Financials: The company has ~three years of runway on current burn, aided by large‑pharma milestones, but remains deeply unprofitable and highly dependent on successful clinical progression. ^[43]
Analyst view: Consensus is a Hold with average price targets in the $7–8 range, implying substantial upside if things go right—but those targets pre‑date today’s news and could change as TUPELO is digested. ^[44]